2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

Only 48 hours later and things are suggesting otherwise. Had a Category 4 hurricane and a new storm that will probably be the third major. And who knows what the other Invest does.

This season looks like a near repeat of 2024 so far.

In fact, 2025's sudden uptick is even slightly earlier than 2024's, albeit only by a few days. Gabrielle became a major on 9/22, and by 9/23 it was clear that we'll likely get yet another major. Even though 2024's early and mid September wasn't as dead as this year's, its reputation only started to really turn around with Helene, which formed on 9/24 and became the second MH of the season two days later.

[psyclone]

Well it seems as if we have exited the peak season dead streak and may actually stack some ace and use some names.

[CrazyC83]

How does this season compare to 1988 and 2007 in terms of the overall environmental patterns? It seems those have become comparable seasons.

[aspen]

What’s perhaps even more remarkable about this season’s majors and Cat 5s is how minimal land impacts have been. Both Cat 5s reached their peaks in very similar spots north of the islands, and depending on Humberto’s track, should both finish without any major land impacts. Gabrielle avoided significant Bermuda impacts too.

Compare this to last year’s majors. Beryl brought significant impacts to the Lesser Antilles and Texas, then once activity began picking up again in late September, Helene clobbered Florida and the Carolinas.

I can’t recall any other season where its first 3 majors all spared the US and islands of any notable impacts — much less a season where both Cat 5s did too. Just adds to 2025’s weirdness. We’re fortunate that many of the ways 2025 has been odd have led to a low-impact season for now.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

It's also interesting that this wake-up from the lull happened globally, most notably in WPAC and NATL, just like the lull itself.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

It's also interesting that this wake-up from the lull happened globally, most notably in WPAC and NATL, just like the lull itself.

Dont leave out EPAC as Kiko was impressive.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/P_SimmsWX/status/1972036181836943536

It's also interesting that this wake-up from the lull happened globally, most notably in WPAC and NATL, just like the lull itself.

Dont leave out EPAC as Kiko was impressive.

I did consider Kiko, but the feeling of a lull never applied to EPAC as clearly and strongly as the other two basins (partly due to Kiko itself). EPAC has been running much closer to climo ACE and storm counts than WPAC and NATL, with a roughly constant rate of genesis since Iona and several hurricanes among them (albeit often weak). Also, the times at which WPAC's and ATL's underperformance were felt the most strongly was also exactly when Kiko existed.

Perhaps this may argue that a large part of the lulls were due to intraseasonal variations, although it does make you wonder if there's something else causing it.

[gatorcane]

WCAR is definitely the place to watch especially starting in the mid-October timeframe with the models showing a CAG developing. SSTs are quite a bit above normal and the EPAC anomalies are lower with a La Niña look:

[gatorcane]

I'm a little perplexed why the Caribbean has been so quiet this season. There has not been one storm there so far. The SST profile screams something big should form there before the season is over especially with the relatively cooler EPAC. Models are hinting at it, but nothing consistent as of yet. I still think this area is a place to watch as it has been untapped so far.

[LarryWx]

I'm a little perplexed why the Caribbean has been so quiet this season. There has not been one storm there so far. The SST profile screams something big should form there before the season is over especially with the relatively cooler EPAC. Models are hinting at it, but nothing consistent as of yet. I still think this area is a place to watch as it has been untapped so far.

https://i.postimg.cc/9FPzkY5p/ssta-daily-current.png
https://i.postimg.cc/2yh7qccQ/atl-season-2025-sm.png

Hey Gator,
So far, even though Jerry came close, there has yet to be even one TC in the Caribbean this year. The last time this was the case for an entire season was way back in the super El Niño season of 1997! Will there be any before the end of the season? My guess for the reasons you stated is yes, but that’s just a guess and thus anything’s possible.

[galaxy401]

The Caribbean has been dead due to how active the EPAC has been consistently. The storms over there pushes all the wind shear over the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

The Caribbean has been dead due to how active the EPAC has been consistently. The storms over there pushes all the wind shear over the Caribbean.

That’s a good point that’s intuitive. Both 1997 and 2025 were/have been active there. Here are some examples of very low or no Caribbean activity during very active EPAC seasons (even more active than 1997): 2015, 2014, 1992, 1991, and 1983-5. Interestingly, 2016 was a rare exception with 3 H including 2 MH in the Caribbean during a very active EPAC season. My best guess as to why is that a lot of the 2016 EPAC activity was centered W of 115W (further from the Caribbean). That is unlike seasons like 2015, 1984, and 1983.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah not much chance for Caribbean activity with all these storms forming off of Mexico on the EPAC side.

[MetroMike]

Right now in the Epac there is only 1 AOI at 30%. A far cry from what has been all season there

[LarryWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies are hinting at some W Caribbean activity late month into early Nov with a moderate risk to S FL week of 10/27-11/2 fwiw. Just something to follow. Not something to get alarmed about right now, of course.

[Fancy1002]

I'm a little perplexed why the Caribbean has been so quiet this season. There has not been one storm there so far. The SST profile screams something big should form there before the season is over especially with the relatively cooler EPAC. Models are hinting at it, but nothing consistent as of yet. I still think this area is a place to watch as it has been untapped so far.

https://i.postimg.cc/9FPzkY5p/ssta-daily-current.png
https://i.postimg.cc/2yh7qccQ/atl-season-2025-sm.png

Hey Gator,
So far, even though Jerry came close, there has yet to be even one TC in the Caribbean this year. The last time this was the case for an entire season was way back in the super El Niño season of 1997! Will there be any before the end of the season? My guess for the reasons you stated is yes, but that’s just a guess and thus anything’s possible.

If it wasn’t for the short lived Barry over in the corner, we wouldn’t have had any gulf storms this year either.

[Ubuntwo]

The Caribbean has been dead due to how active the EPAC has been consistently. The storms over there pushes all the wind shear over the Caribbean.

This feels right, but shear over the Caribbean has been below average almost all season. Part of the issue seems to be a lack of tropical waves. Andy Hazleton has talked about this a few times. The waves either develop too early, are pulled north, or get desiccated by SAL before arriving. It’s just that the very few solid waves to track through the Caribbean have lined up with shear from the EPAC or dry conditions. So ‘bad luck’ (good luck?) has played a part.

[zzzh]

From Michael Lowry:

Interestingly, wind shear in the Caribbean has been running historically low through the heart of the season – consistent with a budding La Niña in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Since September, wind shear across the Caribbean has been the third lowest since 1979.

[Teban54]

In other words, if a wave gets into Western Caribbean like the 0z Euro and 6z GFS show... Watch out.