Just for Kix

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Steve H.
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Just for Kix

#1 Postby Steve H. » Tue Nov 25, 2003 8:03 am

Luis, did you see the day 12 GFS this morning? Has a pretty impressive storm just south of Haiti. This is a strange pattern given the huge ridge in the Pacific.
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 25, 2003 8:11 am

Steve I closed the book on the 2003 season and I am not looking at the models now but strange indeed what you are describing.
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#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Nov 25, 2003 1:34 pm

It shouldn't be that surprising at least one computer forecast model is indicating a feature in late November. The Hurricane Season ends on November 30th, after all. :)

No matter how rare, there have been and will again be tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin in December.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 25, 2003 1:59 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:It shouldn't be that surprising at least one computer forecast model is indicating a feature in late November. The Hurricane Season ends on November 30th, after all. :)

No matter how rare, there have been and will again be tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin in December.


Yeah Tom I know that the atlantic has had developments even in december in favorable conditions at those few years that happened but this year unfavorable conditions are all over the place in the atlantic as the fronts haved comed down to the deep tropics and shuted down everything.
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#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Tue Nov 25, 2003 11:09 pm

The GFS has now for the past few days been trying to brew up a disturbance in the caribbeaN...The 18Z GFS continues this trend... this falls into a believing it when I see it category:):):)
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#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Nov 25, 2003 11:49 pm

I wholeheartedly agree. I was just making a point that seems to be against others, but really isn't. :)
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#7 Postby ameriwx2003 » Wed Nov 26, 2003 12:08 am

Yes:):).. I will be watching this area with interest though in the coming days to see if any of this pans out:):).. It has been an interetsing season.. so who knows;):):)
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#8 Postby Steve H. » Wed Nov 26, 2003 12:08 pm

Amazingly, if not idiotically consistent, the 12Z GFS develops a strong low in the Caribbean, and moves it north over eastern Cuba and into the central Bahamas om 12/8, then NW toward the Carolinas. Strange to have such a strong signature on a low in the tropics this far out. :eek:
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Nov 26, 2003 9:21 pm

Boy, the GFS is going absolutely loco ... and has absolutely no clue of the SBJ (and the split flow) ... oughta call the GFS the Goofy Forecast Solution for even advertising that one ...I don't see any ensemble support for the operational GFS

Yes, I know that this thread was for entertainment purposes only...

SF
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