Tropical Wave well SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025


1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands
is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Teban54]

0z CMC and 6z GFS claim that future Lorenzo will trace out a cursive ℓ:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over
the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles south-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form next week while
moving west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://i.imgur.com/L6TAwf3.png

A circulation already trying to get going.

[TomballEd]

So far the delayed Atlantic MDR season is reducing the number of waves making it to the normal October genesis region, the Caribbean. Florida might actually catch a break.

I do think this has better than a 20/40 chance. CIMMS TPW loop suggests a closed ML center. IR imagery doesn't look shabby either.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

18z GFS makes it a hurricane. Euro also developed it 12z (albeit weakly) after not doing much with it in prior runs, and the EPS has seen an increase in support as a result. Curious to see how long we can keep the late-season MDR train going (given we have another one to potentially monitor after this one)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a large and persistent area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form next week while moving west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Lorenzo (2019) was also a spectacular fish storm. Category 5 in more or less the same location, the most easterly Cat 5 on record.

[cycloneye]

Looks very good and will be Invest 97L anytime.

[cycloneye]

Invest 97L is up