2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[ConvergenceZone]

My previous post was deleted, but I think it's because I posted it under the wrong topic, So I'll post it under this more appropriate topic. Someone had mentioned the season was boring, and my opinion is that I don't think it's boring, although it is far underperforming what was expected this season in terms of the amount of storms that were forecasted including landfalling storms. With that said, enjoy the break why we got it because storms will probably be back with a vengeance next season.

[MetroMike]

My previous post was deleted, but I think it's because I posted it under the wrong topic, So I'll post it under this more appropriate topic. Someone had mentioned the season was boring, and my opinion is that I don't think it's boring, although it is far underperforming what was expected this season in terms of the amount of storms that were forecasted including landfalling storms. With that said, enjoy the break why we got it because storms will probably be back with a vengeance next season.

Yeah I know the feeling, major house cleaning was being done here, such a slow year whats the matter with small talk?

[ConvergenceZone]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

[LarryWx]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

[ConvergenceZone]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

[LarryWx]

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

1. The odds of there being no more NS are low based on it being La Niña and considering late activity of recent years.

2. In case that’s it though, the last years with 11 or fewer were 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, and 1994 (all El Niño). But all of these had 78 or lower ACE.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

1. The odds of there being no more NS are low based on it being La Niña and considering late activity of recent years.

2. In case that’s it though, the last years with 11 or fewer were 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, and 1994 (all El Niño).

oh wow okay, so it's much more common than I thought. Here's an interesting stat I found, "As of early October 2025, the US has not had a hurricane make landfall yet, making it the first time in 10 years that this has happened through the end of September". I think that is why this season feels to empty of storms, giving the illusion that it's been slow. It's not that there haven't been any storms, but that it's been 10 years since we have NOT had a hurricane make landfall. 10 years is one big block of time.

[al78]

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

1. The odds of there being no more NS are low based on it being La Niña and considering late activity of recent years.

2. In case that’s it though, the last years with 11 or fewer were 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, and 1994 (all El Niño).

oh wow okay, so it's much more common than I thought. Here's an interesting stat I found, "As of early October 2025, the US has not had a hurricane make landfall yet, making it the first time in 10 years that this has happened through the end of September". I think that is why this season feels to empty of storms, giving the illusion that it's been slow. It's not that there haven't been any storms, but that it's been 10 years since we have NOT had a hurricane make landfall. 10 years is one big block of time.

It is not an illusion it has been a slow season, it is a fact. There have been two cat 5 hurricanes but aside from that, there has been little activity of note. The Atlantic MDR has been virtually devoid of any hurricane days. The Caribbean Sea has seen squat. All the major hurricane activity has taken place in the sub-tropics. This year is more characteristic of a moderate El Nino year than a cold neutral/borderline La Nina season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atla ... ummary.png

[StPeteMike]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

I think far too many people over simplify seasonal forecasting down to la nina=active and el nino=inactive, many other factors also determine overall activity as well. 2023 was generally forecasted to be an active Atlantic season despite the strong el nino by models/forecasters. Both rightfully anticipated the record warm Atlantic being able to override suppressive influence, however, it's not like the el nino didn't have an effect. Most of the storms were weak due to wind shear, which would've probably been lower if it weren't for the el nino. Also, most of the activity was further out in the mdr/subtropical Atlantic, as is typical in an el nino year. Despite underperforming -enso seasons like 2013, 2022, and this year, all the hyperactive seasons since 2010 have occurred during la ninas.

[al78]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

I think the last few years need looking into. I can understand 2023 as the effect of El Nino was completely overwhelmed by the effect of very high tropical Atlantic SSTs, but this year, and to an extent, last year, seems to have stuck two fingers up at the large scale climate teleconnections that have worked for decades. My belief is that seasonal forecasting has got harder, the pre-season teleconnections that worked well in the past don't seem to work as well now, and there seems to be a bigger influence from intra-seasonal variability which is much harder to predict if not impossible. I have had some communication with Phil Klotzbach about this year and he said something about the link between western Atlantic vertical wind shear and ACE breaking down this year, and if this is a new normal then it is concerning for the future of seasonal forecasting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My opinion is thus far this season can be described as average. I would not call it a slow year, with multiple long-tracked powerful and very classic Cape Verde hurricanes, but the impacts from them were thankfully relatively low compared to other years.

[cycloneye]

Who said this season was boring? Who thought it would have 2 cat 5's and a cat 4 and maybe another cat 4-5? Only thinking Mellissa could be a disaster of epic proportions for some countries / Islands including the Bahamas is very sad.

[LarryWx]

Who said this season was boring? Who thought it would have 2 cat 5's and a cat 4 and maybe another cat 4-5? Only thinking Mellissa could be a disaster of epic proportions for some countries / Islands including the Bahamas is very sad.

Examples from other wx boards that I’ve been a member of for a long time (AmericanWx/SouthernWx) of 5 different bored people:

1. Posted just yesterday at American:

One of the biggest dud seasons of this decade.


2. Posted just 4 days ago at American from someone who used to post here:

One of the most uninteresting and boring seasons I can remember. It’s hilarious we have had two 5s tho in the middle of literally nothing else


3. Posted just 5 days ago:
Boring


4. Posted 10 days ago from a Floridian at a different board:

Since the season is over I’d give this past year a F+. Zero storms to track, Gulf was dead.

He’s never been shy about wanting hurricanes to hit FL and the stronger the better.


5. Oct 5th from a pro met at American:

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades
——————

These are just a few examples. At least they’re being honest. More than just CONUS hits, they want to be hit where they live.

[chaser1]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

I think the last few years need looking into. I can understand 2023 as the effect of El Nino was completely overwhelmed by the effect of very high tropical Atlantic SSTs, but this year, and to an extent, last year, seems to have stuck two fingers up at the large scale climate teleconnections that have worked for decades. My belief is that seasonal forecasting has got harder, the pre-season teleconnections that worked well in the past don't seem to work as well now, and there seems to be a bigger influence from intra-seasonal variability which is much harder to predict if not impossible. I have had some communication with Phil Klotzbach about this year and he said something about the link between western Atlantic vertical wind shear and ACE breaking down this year, and if this is a new normal then it is concerning for the future of seasonal forecasting.

A really good discussion! My thoughts are the same.

[chaser1]

Who said this season was boring? Who thought it would have 2 cat 5's and a cat 4 and maybe another cat 4-5? Only thinking Mellissa could be a disaster of epic proportions for some countries / Islands including the Bahamas is very sad.

Examples from other wx boards that I’ve been a member of for a long time (AmericanWx/SouthernWx) of 5 different bored people:

1. Posted just yesterday at American:

One of the biggest dud seasons of this decade.


2. Posted just 4 days ago at American from someone who used to post here:

One of the most uninteresting and boring seasons I can remember. It’s hilarious we have had two 5s tho in the middle of literally nothing else


3. Posted just 5 days ago:
Boring


4. Posted 10 days ago from a Floridian at a different board:

Since the season is over I’d give this past year a F+. Zero storms to track, Gulf was dead.

He’s never been shy about wanting hurricanes to hit FL and the stronger the better.


5. Oct 5th from a pro met at American:

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades
——————

These are just a few examples. At least they’re being honest. More than just CONUS hits, they want to be hit where they live.

I'll add this much. When I was around 10-12 yr's old, I became fascinated in severe weather as a result of the daily afternoon thunderstorms that developed out west in the Everglades west of Miami. My interest and knowledge in severe weather expanded over time. By the time I became 12 or 13 years old, I was dying for a hurricane to hit Miami! I wanted nothing more then to see & feel the impact of a hurricane. From my middle to my late teens, my fascination only grew and took whatever Environmental Sciences classes available at Miami-Dade College. I'll never forget my favorite teacher Mr. Tony Toney (yes, pronounced as "Tony Tony" - no lie LOL). I became a Co-operative weather observer for the Mia NWS (located at the NHC in Coral Gables). One day while there, I was introduced to two guys who I was told "chased" hurricanes. I nearly lost my mind and struck up a friendship with both of them. I eventually chased my 1st hurricane (Danny - in Louisiana). Was an awesome experience! Other hurricane chases followed. One day, a hurricane followed me. That was Andrew. That was the first time that I ever felt at risk and even thought that I might die. I had family and friends badly impacted by the storm and spent a good deal of time helping, cleaning, finding & shuttling ice & water back-and-forth to help. I witnessed the pain, damage and suffering of others yet I was not old enough to be a home-owner, understand Homeowner insurance issues, or was i faced with the financial, food, or housing issues while living further north up in Broward Co. I continued to chase hurricanes but my perspective changed quite a bit over that time. Eventually I became a homeowner and was still excited to have Katrina unexpectedly develop and move west over Miami-Dade & Broward. I was outside my home carefully watching and videoing the event. Had some minor roof damage and messed up everyone's yards. Got through that fine - fun times lol. Then came Wilma and that was worse. More expensive prep, more damage, longer without electric or A/C, and greater impact to family. Thereafter, I began to dread the prospects of a hurricane threatening S. Florida. I continued to remain fascinated by all types of severe weather, severe climates, and hurricanes. My fascination never diminished but my maturity, broader understanding of a hurricane's impact to others, and perhaps most importantly - the social awareness of suffering that others have had (and continue to) as a result of any type of severe weather.

No one should be faulted or shamed for wanting to visualize or experience the world we live in. Furthermore, to be human is to err. Not everybody communicates equally well and poorly expressed thoughts can easily be taken out of the intended context. It only becomes in very bad taste, when one's desire is expressed in a manner that fully disregards the hurt & pain of others for one's own benefit That form of expression & disregard is not professional and certainly not nice.

[LarryWx]

Who said this season was boring? Who thought it would have 2 cat 5's and a cat 4 and maybe another cat 4-5? Only thinking Mellissa could be a disaster of epic proportions for some countries / Islands including the Bahamas is very sad.

Examples from other wx boards that I’ve been a member of for a long time (AmericanWx/SouthernWx) of 5 different bored people:

1. Posted just yesterday at American:

One of the biggest dud seasons of this decade.


2. Posted just 4 days ago at American from someone who used to post here:

One of the most uninteresting and boring seasons I can remember. It’s hilarious we have had two 5s tho in the middle of literally nothing else


3. Posted just 5 days ago:
Boring


4. Posted 10 days ago from a Floridian at a different board:

Since the season is over I’d give this past year a F+. Zero storms to track, Gulf was dead.

He’s never been shy about wanting hurricanes to hit FL and the stronger the better.


5. Oct 5th from a pro met at American:

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades
——————

These are just a few examples. At least they’re being honest. More than just CONUS hits, they want to be hit where they live.

I'll add this much. When I was around 10-12 yr's old, I became fascinated in severe weather as a result of the daily afternoon thunderstorms that developed out west in the Everglades west of Miami. My interest and knowledge in severe weather expanded over time. By the time I became 12 or 13 years old, I was dying for a hurricane to hit Miami! I wanted nothing more then to see & feel the impact of a hurricane. From my middle to my late teens, my fascination only grew and took whatever Environmental Sciences classes available at Miami-Dade College. I'll never forget my favorite teacher Mr. Tony Toney (yes, pronounced as "Tony Tony" - no lie LOL). I became a Co-operative weather observer for the Mia NWS (located at the NHC in Coral Gables). One day while there, I was introduced to two guys who I was told "chased" hurricanes. I nearly lost my mind and struck up a friendship with both of them. I eventually chased my 1st hurricane (Danny - in Louisiana). Was an awesome experience! Other hurricane chases followed. One day, a hurricane followed me. That was Andrew. That was the first time that I ever felt at risk and even thought that I might die. I had family and friends badly impacted by the storm and spent a good deal of time helping, cleaning, finding & shuttling ice & water back-and-forth to help. I witnessed the pain, damage and suffering of others yet I was not old enough to be a home-owner, understand Homeowner insurance issues, or was i faced with the financial, food, or housing issues while living further north up in Broward Co. I continued to chase hurricanes but my perspective changed quite a bit over that time. Eventually I became a homeowner and was still excited to have Katrina unexpectedly develop and move west over Miami-Dade & Broward. I was outside my home carefully watching and videoing the event. Had some minor roof damage and messed up everyone's yards. Got through that fine - fun times lol. Then came Wilma and that was worse. More expensive prep, more damage, longer without electric or A/C, and greater impact to family. Thereafter, I began to dread the prospects of a hurricane threatening S. Florida. I continued to remain fascinated by all types of severe weather, severe climates, and hurricanes. My fascination never diminished but my maturity, broader understanding of a hurricane's impact to others, and perhaps most importantly - the social awareness of suffering that others have had (and continue to) as a result of any type of severe weather.

No one should be faulted or shamed for wanting to visualize or experience the world we live in. Furthermore, to be human is to err. Not everybody communicates equally well and poorly expressed thoughts can easily be taken out of the intended context. It only becomes in very bad taste, when one's desire is expressed in a manner that fully disregards the hurt & pain of others for one's own benefit That form of expression & disregard is not professional and certainly not nice .

Hey Chaser,
Thanks for your interesting history and perspective!
I especially agree with you about your last 2 sentences (bolded). Various levels of enthusiasm are inherent in each of us. But it becomes bad taste/cold when this enthusiasm is expressed in a manner similar to some of the examples I posted, which suggest a possible lack of empathy for the potential hurt of others and the relief they get when they don’t get threatened, especially considering how bad 2024 was in many areas. As I’ve said, boredom is a minuscule price to pay for avoiding potential casualties/devastation/misery of others. When they openly complain about their frustrations due to being merely bored and knowing that others reading that have been badly affected in the past and/or could be badly affected by future storms, it can feel hurtful to them. It seems that some of those who do this are trolling because one would think they have to know how cold it sounds. So, they’re probably best ignored though that’s not always easy.

[Teban54]

With Melissa becoming a Category 4 major hurricane, the season is at 13/5/4. This means 80% of hurricanes reached Cat 4 or higher.

The only records of such a high MH/H ratio were all in the pre-satellite era: 1905, 1917 and 1930 had all their known hurricanes as MHs in HURDAT (1, 1 and 2 MHs each), and the 4th place is 1894 where 4 out of 5 hurricanes were majors, same as 2025. Needless to say, such data is highly suspect.

In the satellite era (which Phil Klotzbach noted as 1966 onwards), 2025 has the highest ratio of MH/H. The second highest is 67% (two-thirds), held by 1996, 2004 (both years 6 MH / 9 H), and 2009 (2 MH / 3 H).

What about the Cat 4 / H ratio? For 2025, it's the same: 80% of hurricanes were Cat 4+. That shatters the previous record of 62%, held by 1999 (5 Cat 4s / 8 Hs).

Edited at 10am EDT on 10/26 with Melissa officially becoming a Cat 4 earlier. Note that additional hurricanes forming after Melissa can affect this ratio.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1982281472359768566