Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

Likely, as others have mentioned, a reflection of the typhoon getting into the higher latitudes and becoming a strong low pressure in the Bering Sea. Not perfect but does change the Pacific down the road some.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw correct me if in wrong here, but typically doesn’t a recurving west pacific typoon have to still be somewhat strong in order for their to be a large or even somewhat noticeable shift in the upper air pattern over NA or blocking in the pacific/ Alaskan regions

[Ntxw]

Ntxw correct me if in wrong here, but typically doesn’t a recurving west pacific typoon have to still be somewhat strong in order for their to be a large or even somewhat noticeable shift in the upper air pattern over NA or blocking in the pacific/ Alaskan regions

Later in the season yes, but in general any kind of Aleutian trough is better at disturbing the weather in our region than a pure Nina Aleutian ridge. So the mechanism causing the recurve is better, anything is better really at this point...

[Brent]

Clear signal here around the 20th

Lets see if it can stop being delayed this time

[Ntxw]

Also FYI as we head into mid and later into October, these upper 80s to near 90 will be creeping into record territory. Climo is starting to bite.

[bubba hotep]

Also FYI as we head into mid and later into October, these upper 80s to near 90 will be creeping into record territory. Climo is starting to bite.

Avg highs for North Texas dipping into the 70s here soon. Even avg. would seem amazingly refreshing after this past 4 or 5 weeks.

[Haddox12]

Yeah this sucks, guys.

[Stratton23]

Models are starting to see changes in pacific blocking due to the recurving typoon, seeing a much strong -EPO alaskan blocking signature on the GFS, CMC leaning toward increased heights over Alaska too, ensembles should start to show this over the next week or so

[starsfan65]

Models are starting to see changes in pacific blocking due to the recurving typoon, seeing a much strong -EPO alaskan blocking signature on the GFS, CMC leaning toward increased heights over Alaska too, ensembles should start to show this over the next week or so

I saw the picture of the Typhoon moving Northeast.

[Brent]

I mean there's storms recurving in the EPAC and we still can't get anything here. Remember when EPAC storms flooded us???

It's just beyond sad at this point

[Ntxw]

I mean there's storms recurving in the EPAC and we still can't get anything here. Remember when EPAC storms flooded us???

It's just beyond sad at this point

Upper level ridging says no. Warm air wins. These 240 hour changes are just that...240 hours constantly only to revert to warmth under 240.

[Stratton23]

AIFS/ CMC are much cooler in response to the WPAC typoon recurving, I think the - PNA thats been torching texas should begin to lose its grip, im cautiously optimistic more than i was a
few days ago that this stubborn pattern will not be lasting the rest of october

[mmmmsnouts]

I still haven’t adjusted my thermostat from summer. This is going to cost me at least $100 extra on my electric bill this month. Get me out of here.

[Stratton23]

Euro sees the flip to a cooler regime as well, hope the ensembles start trending that way

[snownado]

I guess October 2025 said to October 2024 "hold my beer!"

[Stratton23]

Ensembles today have shown some improvement at the 500 Mb level if you want cooler air to potentially make it to texas, still have room for a lot of improvement though, with chaos in regards to typoon recurve and pacific blocking, expect a lot of volatility in the models until they get a better handle on these features

[Ntxw]

I still haven’t adjusted my thermostat from summer. This is going to cost me at least $100 extra on my electric bill this month. Get me out of here.

Summer in Texas is 6-8 months, pay now or pay later...we paid later.

[Brent]

I still haven’t adjusted my thermostat from summer. This is going to cost me at least $100 extra on my electric bill this month. Get me out of here.

Summer in Texas is 6-8 months, pay now or pay later...we paid later.

Yup I knew we were gonna pay for how relatively easy this summer was or especially that stretch in August

I mean there were some places here that had highs in the 60s then. It was crazy

[Ntxw]

Next 7 days:

Warm, dry.

[gpsnowman]

Next 7 days:

Warm, dry.

When I got to work this morning NBC5 news was on the TV and when I saw the 10 day pop up I realized I haven't purposely watched a local weather report in weeks and that never happens. What's the point? Same s@#t different day.