NATL: JERRY - Advisories

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
800 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...DESPITE JERRY'S CENTER MOVING NORTH, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY'S CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
BUT FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry is not a healthy tropical storm this morning. The low-level
circulation, as seen in satellite imagery and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data, is elongated in a southeast-northwest
direction with most of the associated deep convection displaced
well to the south-southeast. The current intensity is held at 45
kt, based on a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 54 kt measured
by the reconnaissance aircraft and recent ASCAT data. All of the
tropical-storm-force winds appears to be within the eastern
semicircle.

With the center not all that well defined, the current motion
estimate of northwestward (325 degrees) at 14 kt is a bit
uncertain. Jerry is expected to turn northward later today as it
moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with
that trajectory continuing through early Sunday. Then, a sharp
northeastward and eastward turn is expected by Sunday night and
Monday as Jerry becomes embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow.
The NHC track forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid
during that period and is not too different from the previous
prediction. On days 4 and 5, the official forecast has been nudged
southward a bit based on the latest model trends.

Jerry continues to move in a direction directly into the shear
vector, and this orientation is unlikely to change at least for the
next 48 hours. After 48 hours, the storm's motion and shear vector
become more aligned, but then the storm will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
atmosphere. As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to
trend downward. The NHC forecast now only shows the possibility of
some slight strengthening, but overall the intensity is nearly
flatlined through day 5.

Thickness fields from the European, UKMET, and Canadian models
suggest that Jerry could start to become entangled in a frontal
boundary by Monday, and the Google DeepMind model loses a large
number of its ensemble members by Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC
forecast now shows Jerry becoming extratropical by Wednesday, if not
sooner. Only the GFS keeps Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day
5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater
Antilles today and tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 20.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 26.9N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 30.8N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.8N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY'S TRAILING BANDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 63.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's center remains somewhat ill defined and embedded along the
eastern end of a southeast-to-northwest oriented surface trough.
Strong shear out of the north-northwest is displacing much of the
associated deep convection south-southeast of the center, with
trailing bands still producing heavy rains over portions of the
Leeward Islands. Based on ASCAT data from this morning, the
maximum winds are still estimated to be 45 kt, with
tropical-storm-force winds limited to the eastern side of the
circulation.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/13 kt. Jerry
is expected to turn northward by tonight as it moves around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with that motion
continuing through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward
motion is expected Sunday through Tuesday as Jerry becomes embedded
within mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast is
not too different than the previous prediction since there have not
been any significant model changes from 6 hours ago.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear
during the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the
exception of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an
elongated circulation through this period. Although the shear
might decrease a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be
moving over more marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more
stable environment. The NHC forecast now shows little to no change
in Jerry's intensity through day 3, which is close to that shown by
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. The same global model fields
also show Jerry possibly interacting with a front in 48-72 hours,
and the updated NHC forecast now shows extratropical transition by
day 4 with dissipation along the front by day 5. The GFS maintains
Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that solution is
considered an outlier.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
tonight, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward
the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas tonight and on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 21.5N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 23.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.3N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 31.4N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 31.4N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.1N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

...JERRY PULLING AWAY FROM NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT HEAVY
RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHERN
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 63.9W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025

Jerry's low-level circulation remains rather ill-defined especially
on the northwest side of the cyclone, where a surface trough extends
northwestward from Jerry. The SHIPS guidance is showing about 15-20
kt of northwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear in Jerry's
environment, which is displacing convection to the southeast of the
center. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are
still occurring over the Virgin Islands, but the rainband that was
producing the persistent heavy rain over the northeastern Caribbean
Islands has weakened from earlier and is starting to move away. A
recent ASCAT pass shows maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity
has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher
than the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. The tropical-storm-force
winds are limited to the eastern semicircle of Jerry.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 350 degrees at 13 kt.
This general motion should continue through Saturday night because a
north-south-oriented mid-level ridge is currently located to the
east of the cyclone. By Sunday night, Jerry should turn eastward as
it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. Only minor
adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track forecast, which
generally lies in between the simple and corrected consensus models.

Jerry is likely to continue battling moderate to strong shear during
the next couple of days, and global model fields (with the exception
of the GFS) suggest that the storm will maintain an elongated
circulation through this period. Although the shear might decrease
a bit after 48 hours, at that point Jerry will be moving over more
marginal sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
environment. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity
forecast, which is near, or slightly below the middle of the
guidance envelope. The global model fields (with the exception of
the GFS) show Jerry interacting with a front by Sunday night, and
the NHC forecast shows Jerry becoming post-tropical by Monday
evening, with dissipation along the front a day or two later. The
GFS maintains Jerry as a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that
solution is considered an outlier.

It should be noted that the circulation of Jerry is quite
ill-defined on the northwest side. Therefore, it is possible that
Jerry could dissipate at any time this weekend. However, given that
most of the global and regional models hold on to the circulation
into Sunday, the most likely scenario seems to be that Jerry will
stick around for at least another 2 days or so until it begins
interacting with the front.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Jerry will lift north of the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico overnight. As a result, the risk for
flash flooding will diminish.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 24.6N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.4N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 32.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 31.4N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0000Z 29.8N 51.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 63.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

Jerry has become slightly better organized this morning. Recent
satellite images and AMSR2 passive microwave data show that new deep
convection has developed closer to the estimated center position of
the storm, with some evidence of curved banding noted in the 89 GHz
channel. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is held
at 50 kt, which is consistent with the scatterometer data from last
night. The wind field remains asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force
winds confined to the eastern semicircle of the storm.

The estimated initial motion of Jerry is north (005 deg) at 14 kt. A
general northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast through
the weekend as the storm moves along the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge. As this feature becomes reoriented to the south
of Jerry early next week, the system is forecast to turn eastward as
it interacts with a front and moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The updated NHC forecast trends toward a simple
consensus of the global models and was generally adjusted to the
left of the previous prediction.

There are some indications in satellite imagery that the center of
Jerry may still be elongated. Even if the storm is able to maintain
a well-defined circulation over the next couple of days, there is
little to suggest that Jerry will strengthen. As the storm moves
northward, it will remain in a moderate shear environment and
eventually move over marginal SSTs. Because of this, the NHC
forecast shows gradual weakening through early next week. While
Jerry appears likely to merge with a frontal system to its north and
become extratropical at some point during the forecast period, there
are differences among the global models as to when this will occur.
The GFS remains an outlier, and so the NHC prediction favors the
earlier frontal interaction shown by the ECMWF and Canadian models.
Alternatively, the cyclone could become stretched out and absorbed
along the front even sooner than forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Bahamas today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 24.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 29.0N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 31.1N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 32.5N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

...DISHEVELED JERRY MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 63.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES






Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

There are strong indications this morning that Jerry may no longer
have a well-defined center of circulation. Although there is
obvious mid-level rotation in a small area of deep convection, low
cloud lines in visible satellite imagery suggest the system may
have degenerated into a surface trough of low pressure, which is
echoed by global model fields. We will continue advisories at the
moment, pending some ASCAT data which should provide some additional
clarity on the system's structure. Advisories could be discontinued
at any time if new data shows that Jerry has opened up into a
trough.

Satellite intensity estimates are no higher than about 45 kt, so
the current intensity is reduced to that value. The European,
UKMET, and Canadian models show Jerry's circulation remaining
stretched out and weakening while beginning to merge with a
frontal boundary located to its north near 30N in about 24 hours.
Even the GFS, which keeps Jerry separate from the frontal boundary,
shows the peak winds decreasing. The new NHC forecast now shows
Jerry becoming post-tropical by 48 hours and dissipating 72 hours,
but both of these transitions could occur much earlier.

Although the center is not well defined, the entire system is
moving northward (005 degrees) at 14 kt. A turn toward the
northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by an eastward motion on
Monday as Jerry merges with a front and becomes embedded in
mid-latitude westerly flow. The new track forecast is generally
just an update of the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 25.8N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 28.0N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 32.0N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 32.6N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 14/0000Z 32.0N 56.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Jerry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

...JERRY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 63.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Remnants Of Jerry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Sat Oct 11 2025

A combination of scatterometer data, GOES-East derived motion
winds, and a recent GPM microwave pass seems to confirm that Jerry
does not have a well-defined center and has degenerated into a
trough with deep convection located at the southeastern end of the
axis. As a result, this will be the last NHC advisory on this
system. Maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt based on ASCAT data
from this morning.

The rough motion estimate is northward, or 360/14 kt. The remnant
trough is expected to move northward and then northeastward, with
the European, Canadian, and UKMET models showing it merging with a
frontal boundary to its north in 24-36 hours. Gale-force winds are
likely to continue to the east and north of the trough until it
merges with the front. The GFS continues to keep the remnants as a
distinct feature, but given that its initial position of the
remnants is too far to the southeast, it is still considered an
outlier solution.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg