Non-tropical Low off the US East Coast

[OuterBanker]

Here we go again. Some on this site are lamenting on the boring season.

Here on the OBX it is anything but boring. In the past few weeks we have watched nine oceanfront homes destroyed and washed away.
This week we will have to face fetch and king tides with a possible coastal storm of some type next weekend.
I’m sure Fox network already has a crew here.
All models develop something, what it will be is still up in the air.
No matter what it is it will probably bring havoc here.
More homes washed out to sea. More floating debris, etc.
Ten years ago most of the homes that washed away had 150 ft of beach in front of them. Now they can fish from their porch.
If it does not get a name no one will remember or care.
Except us.

[AJC3]

This feature is now in the WPC surface analysis. Strong jet forcing aloft is generating significant convection near and offshore the entire SE U.S. Coast.




This is what some of you have been itching to see get it's own thread (frankly, I'm surprised someone didn't start this last evening). Well, now it's here.

DIscuss away, peeps!

[xironman]

If it does not get a name no one will remember or care.

From what I understand if the storm isn't named it is much harder to get the Feds to help out on beach nourishment repair. I can imagine a long term NE fetch is going to wash away a lot of sand.

[tropicwatch]

Seas are 7-10 feet off the southeast coastline and winds are 30mph gusting to 40.

[disassociated_vort]

Any chance that a vastly weaker Jerry could influence the stregnth of the subtropical\Bermuda high and push the rain from this brewing nor'easter further inland into the Piedmont of NC?

[mitchell]

If it does not get a name no one will remember or care.
Except us.

60+ years later the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962 is well remembered throughout the mid atlantic region. Probably more so than any named Hurricane from the entire decade. But I take your point about the current obsession over storm "naming"

[emeraldislenc]

I ageee the Ash Wednesday storm will always be remembered !

[LarryWx]

This is the worst coastal flooding event not associated with a TC (aka king tide) I’ve ever personally witnessed.

It reached 10.35’ at high tide at Ft. Pulaski at 11:36AM very near the 10.4’ that had been forecasted the last couple of few days:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1248 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1124 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
10/10/2025 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 8.46 FT MLLW (2.70 FT MHHW) WAS
OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE COASTS OF
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH
8.0 FT MLLW (2.24 FT MHHW) IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

1136 AM COASTAL FLOOD 4 NW TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.93W
10/10/2025 CHATHAM GA OTHER FEDERAL

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 10.35 FT MLLW (2.85 FT MHHW)
WAS OBSERVED AT THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE LOCATED NEAR
THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG MUCH OF THE GEORGIA AND FAR
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH
10.0 FT MLLW (2.5 FT MHHW) AT FORT PULASKI.

[OuterBanker]

Quite possibly one of the longest discussions from NWS I've ever seen.
Can I be excused, my brain is full.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
340 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong coastal low will impact the area this weekend into
early next week, producing multiple hazards, especially along
the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sat

Key Messages:

- Wind advisory expanded to many counties adjacent to coastal
locales

- Coastal flood warnings expanded for areas adjacent to the
lower Neuse River

A tricky forecast continues with respect to positioning of low
that will move up the coast and be located off the NC coast on
Sunday.

Firstly, area of light to ocnl moderate stratiform rain shield
has expanded to encompass all of ENC this afternoon. This in
response to initial area of isentropic upglide. Pressure
response to the south of ENC evident in inc winds off the SC
waters, with gusts approaching 45 kt at Frying Pan Tower.

Intense pressure falls expected this evening as the low off the
GA/SC coast lifts north and deepens. This is when winds will be
at their strongest, first along the Crystal Coast and srn OBX,
then expanding northward later this evening. Have expanded wind
advisories to areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound, as well as
Albemarle sound to the north. Communities with a favorable
exposure to the strong northeast winds off the water will
experience wind gusts up to 50 mph, with locally higher winds on
the OBX south of Oregon Inlet and Cedar Island, where local wind
gusts may peak 55-60 mph. Because of the brief duration of these
very high wind possibilities, have opted out of a high wind warn
at this time. These high winds this evening have prompted an
upgrade to coastal flood warnings for some counties adjacent to
the lower Neuse (see coastal flood section below). Rainfall has
remained steady since last fcst, and no changes to flood watch,
with 3-6" along the immediate coast, with lesser amounts inland
from there. Threat for thunder has gone down, but with strong
vorticity advection developing tonight, periods of heavy rain
showers in embedded elevated thunder are expected, esp E of Hwy
17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...The aforementioned low postion tomorrow is
still somewhat in question, but some headway in model guidance
confluence continues. The convective-allowing models are taking
the low inland across ENC, but all other guidance
(GFS/EC/ICON/GEM_Reg) bring the low to a griding halt off of
Cape Fear. This is in response to double barreled upper low
developing over the East Coast tomorrow, with parent low
dropping south out of the Great Lakes, while secondary low
pushes eastward from the southern Appalachians. These two
systems will evolve off the coast through Monday, and spur
secondary cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic, pulling the low off
the NC coast late Sun into Mon. The consensus is for all of ENC
to now remain under nerly flow, and therefore a stronger wind
field to cont through the day tomorrow. Have inc winds as a
result, with advisory or near advisory winds cont through much
of the day. Where gradient is stronest, acrs the nern zones,
have cont the wind advisory through the day. Remainder of the
coastal counties will have to be watched for a continuation of
the wind headlines if later forecasts come up higher with winds.
Slgt chc thunder in the morning will become less than 10%
through the afternoon, so have removed any thunder mention
second half of the day. Periods of rain or showers will cont
throughout the day as upper low pivots through and sfc low
meanders off the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sat...

Key Messages:

- Impactful coastal low to bring heavy rain, strong winds, coastal
flooding, and trecherous surf and marine conditions through early
next week

- Drier weather returns Tuesday

Sunday night - Saturday...

The start of the long term will be greatly impacted by the track
and strength of the coastal low. Winds will grad back to the
NNW Sunday night and remain so through the rest of the period.
PoPs will gradually decline through the start of the week as
high pressure builds across the southeast. Tuesday will start a
period of dry weather that`s currently forecast to last through
the end of next week. Coastal flooding impacts are expected to
continue even after the low pulls away from our coast (see the
Coastal Flooding Section).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- Coastal low to bring widespread IFR, or lower, conditions and
gusty winds this evening into Sunday

Widespread sub-VFR conditions across the terminals this
afternoon. Cigs will continue to grad lower becoming widespread
IFR this evening, then likely cont into Sunday. Widespread
light to moderate RA will continue, becoming moderate to heavy
at times this evening and overnight. As the low strengthens, a
tightening gradient should support increasing northeasterly
winds, with gusts of 25-30kt through Sun.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...A coastal low forecast to impact the
area is expected to continue to support widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions into Sunday night across ENC. Gusty NE winds are
expected to continue as well, eventually becoming northwesterly.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Have extended gale warnings through the day
Sun and into early Sun evening. Gale warnings cont for all
waters except Pamlico River, where any gales will be fairly
brief tonight. It should be noted that there continues to be a
cluster of guidance showing storm- force gusts, especially over
the warmer waters south of Cape Hatteras, however probability
guidance from the 11/12Z ECM still hovers around 40-60% for
gusts greater than 50kt occurring, so opted to not issue any
storm warning products here at this time. Most of the waters are
now expected to remain under northerly flow, as track of low
should remain off the coast. This will put most of ENC under
stable flow regime, but areas near the Gulf Stream will have to
be watched for some convection to migrate into the coastal
waters and a low end threat for waterspouts. Have expanded the
gales through the day Suday with the low remaining offshore with
recent model guidance and therefore remaining under tightened
pres gradient.

For the coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Duck, seas are
expected to top out in the 11-16 ft range at 10-12 seconds.
South of Cape Lookout, seas of 7-12 ft are expected.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- Coastal low to continue to impact the ENC waters into early
next week with hazardous winds and seas

Still some uncertainty in the track of complex low pressure
system that will continue to impact the waters into early next
week. However, confidence is high that strong winds and
hazardous marine conditions will continue. Gale Warnings
continue for most waters into Sunday evening to capture the
coastal low`s impacts. Eventually, a more dominant northwesterly
flow is expected to develop early next week, with gusts of
25-35 kt continuing. Seas will peak at 10-15 ft, highest north
of Ocracoke. Conditions will remain hazardous through most of
next week with gusty winds and elevated seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 PM Sat...Rain may be moderate to heavy at times
through tonight as a coastal low approaches and moves through
the region. PWATs around 2" and ample forcing ahead of and near
the low pressure system should support scattered to widespread
heavy showers moving south to north. Best chances are along the
coast, east of HWY 17. Portions of the coast are expected to see
4-6"+ inches where forcing and moisture is the greatest. While
showers should be progressive in nature, training showers would
be the main concern when it comes to flash flooding. A Flood
Watch is in effect for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret
County until 8 AM Sunday. As you go further inland, moisture and
forcing decrease, which should keep showers more widespread
with less impressive rain rates. Additionally, the coastal plain
is experiencing more significant drought conditions, which will
help reduce the threat for flash flooding in this area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM Sat...

Confidence is high that low pressure will strengthen off the
east coast of FL and strengthen as it moves slowly north today.
Confidence has decreased regarding the track beyond that point.
Some guidance brings it into ENC, while other guidance keeps it
offshore. This has a significant impact on the strength and
duration of stronger winds, which also factors into what coastal
impacts will occur. Confidence remains high regarding coastal
impacts, but specific details still have some opportunity for
adjustments.

Have upgraded to CF Warnings for the Northern Outer Banks, and
southern Craven and Downeast Carteret counties, with potential
for more moderate impacts. Some minor impacts will be possible
for areas adj to the southern Albemarle Sound. Coastal flood
products remain in effect with a Coastal Flood Advisory for the
Crystal Coast, and areas adj to the Pamlico/Pungo Rvr...with CF
Warnings for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. This will especially
be the case for the more vulnerable areas that have been
impacted the greatest by multiple storms over the past 1-2
months. Portions of NC-12 on Ocracoke Island already closed due
to ocean overwash. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from
Duck to Cape Lookout.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Sunday for
NCZ046-047.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080-094-
195-199.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
NCZ081-094-194-195.
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ194-196.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NCZ196-203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ196-204.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 5 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ196-204-205.
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Sunday for
AMZ131-150-230-231.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-137-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

[emeraldislenc]

It was a lengthy but very important discussion!

[emeraldislenc]

Tropical storm force winds at buoys off the NC Coast. This could be a bad nor'easter.

[AJC3]

Tropical storm force winds at buoys off the NC Coast. This could be a bad nor'easter.

It's been pretty much a given that this will be a strong nor'easter with damaging impacts. Gale and Storm Warnings have gone up offshore the entirety of the U.S. east coast from Georgia up through Maine, and I'd expect most of those Gale Warnings to be upgraded to Storm Warnings. For marine areas, the NWS issues:

Gale Warnings: for non-tropical winds (sustained or frequent gusts) of 34-47kt
Storm Warnings: for non-tropical winds (again, sustained or frequent gusts) of 48-63kt

The impacts for this event will be just as bad as a moderate to strong tropical storm, regardless of whether this makes a run at becoming an STC.

Over coastal land areas, Wind Advisories, and High Wind Warnings are in place. The criteria for those are as follows:

Wind Advisory: for non-tropical sustained winds of 31-39 mph for one hour or longer, or gusts of 46-57 mph for any duration.
High Wind Warning: for non-tropical sustained winds of 40 mph or greater for one hour or longer, or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater for any duration.

[mitchell]

Its interesting the way the system is so stretched out with the remnant low still over the southeast, and another center of energy all the way up off the New Jersey Coast. Local Mets here in the mid Atlantic are saying this has resulted in the wind velocities in our area being lower than originally thought. We were under a High Wind Watch on Delmarva which was dropped, with gusts now predicted to remain below 50 mph.