EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Octave Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

...OCTAVE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 123.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES





Hurricane Octave Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

The structure of Octave has changed little since the previous
advisory. The low-level center continues to be underneath the
eastern side of the tightly wound curved banding, associated with
the core of the hurricane. There continues to be hints of an eye
in visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates are a
consensus 65 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective intensity
estimates range from 55-80 kt. The initial intensity is held at 70
kt.

The initial motion estimate is slightly faster toward the northeast,
or 055 degrees at 5 kt. A turn toward the east at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected Monday as the cyclone is pushed in that
direction by an upper-level trough to its northwest. By early
Tuesday, the main weather feature affecting Octave's track will
likely be a large and powerful Priscilla, which should cause Octave
to turn toward the east-southeast. By Wednesday, models are in
agreement that Octave should be located south of Priscilla. Once
Octave gets southeast of Priscilla, an acceleration toward the
northeast is expected until Octave's circulation likely dissipates
in a little less than 4 days. The NHC forecast has been adjusted
slightly to the north of the previous official forecast through 60
hours, and lies roughly in between the latest GFEX and the Google
Deep Mind Ensemble mean.

Octave is straddling the sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and
is forecast to move parallel to the SST gradient for the next couple
of days, with the eye likely to encounter SSTs in the 26 to 26.5
degree C range. Wind shear should remain relatively low through the
next 24-36 hours. Octave is forecast to gradually encounter a
slightly drier and more stable airmass on Monday. All of the models
show Octave weakening beginning shortly, but given the environmental
conditions, it wouldn't be surprising to see the cyclone maintain
its intensity for another 12-24 h. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the high end of the model guidance for the first 24 h, then
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. By 36 h,
increasing easterly shear, partially the result of the outflow from
Priscilla, is expected to lead to weakening. Model guidance
suggests that either Octave will be absorbed by the stronger
Priscilla or that the outflow from Priscilla will disrupt Octave's
circulation, opening it into a trough. Regardless of which scenario
occurs, Octave should dissipate within 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.2N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Octave Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

...OCTAVE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 122.8W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


Hurricane Octave Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Octave continues to show some signs of strengthening. Geostationary
satellite data show hints of an eye in the infrared and last-light
visible imagery. A 2358 UTC GPM microwave pass suggested Octave
still had a small, slightly tilted inner core. The initial
intensity is nudged up to 75 kt to represent a blend of the
objective and subjective Dvorak estimates.

The hurricane is moving northeastward at 6 kt and is expected to
turn eastward on Monday. Octave is forecast to follow in the wake
of the larger Hurricane Priscilla, which should cause Octave to bend
to the east-southeast on Tuesday, followed by a turn back towards
the northeast on Wednesday. There is a lot of spread in the model
guidance by the end of the forecast period, and this portion of the
forecast is considered highly uncertain. The official track
prediction lies between the Google DeepMind and corrected consensus
aids, slightly north of the previous forecast.

Global models suggest Octave may have hit its high note. The center
of the hurricane has shifted north of the 26 degree C isotherm and
the vertical wind shear is expected to gradually strengthen. After
a couple of days, the shear should drastically increase as Octave
nears the outflow of Priscilla which will accelerate weakening. Few
changes have been made to the latest NHC forecast and dissipation is
still expected within 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.4N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.1N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.7N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 15.7N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.1N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[zhukm29]

Global models suggest Octave may have hit its high note.

Ha, was waiting for a pun to be made on this name.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave has begun to weaken over the
past several hours, with its central dense overcast diminishing in
size and its cloud tops warming. This trend, combined with a 0602
UTC Metop-C ASCAT pass showing peak surface winds near 50 kt,
supports setting the initial intensity at 60 kt, making Octave a
tropical storm.

The initial motion is eastward at around 6 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through much of the day today. A
gradual bend toward the east-southeast is forecast tonight through
Wednesday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough extending
southwestward off the U.S. West Coast and a much larger Hurricane
Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the east. By late
Wednesday, Octave is expected to turn toward the northeast as it
begins to interact with and eventually become absorbed by Priscilla.
There remains a decent amount of cross- and along-track spread
among the guidance during the midweek period, largely due to
uncertainties associated with this binary interaction. The new NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and closely
follows the consensus aid.

Global models suggest Octave has likely peaked in intensity, which
aligns with recent trends. Drier mid-level air entraining into the
circulation and gradually increasing vertical wind shear will
support continued weakening during the next couple of days.
Thereafter, stronger shear combined with interaction with Priscilla
should induce additional weakening. Octave is forecast to open up
into a trough and be absorbed by Priscilla by the end of the
forecast period. The intensity forecast remains close to the
previous NHC advisory and near the middle portion of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.3N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 15.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 15.8N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Octave continues to lose strength this morning. Satellite images
show that the associated deep convection has been gradually
shrinking, and the cloud pattern is now more asymmetric with the
low-level center located near the southwestern edge of the
thunderstorm activity. There is a big spread in the satellite
intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to about 80 kt.
Based on the degraded structure, the initial wind speed is set
closer to the lower end of the range at 55 kt. A satellite view of
the eastern Pacific basin shows how small Octave is compared to
Priscilla. In fact, Octave's wind field is less than one-third of
the size of Priscilla.

The storm is moving eastward at 6 kt on the south side of a
large-scale trough near the west coast of the U.S. A continued
eastward or east-southeastward motion is forecast for another
day or two, followed by a faster motion to the northeast when Octave
becomes influenced by the flow on Priscilla's southeast side. The
track forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and this
prediction lies closest to the HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions.

Continued weakening is expected as Octave moves into an environment
of increasing shear and drier air. Most of the models show Octave
opening up into a trough or dissipating completely in a few days as
it becomes absorbed into the outer circulation of Priscilla. The
NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and leans
closer to the lower end of the model guidance given the expected
unfavorable environmental conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Octave has been steadily weakening throughout the day. Deep
convection has been withering away, and only a few disorganized
patches remain. The low-level circulation is still quite well
organized, however. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, based
on recent ASCAT data that showed peak winds around 40 kt. A
satellite view of the eastern Pacific basin shows how small Octave
is compared to Priscilla. In fact, Octave's wind field is less than
one-third of the size of Priscilla.

The storm is moving eastward at 6 kt on the south side of a
large-scale trough near the west coast of the U.S. A continued
eastward or east-southeastward motion is forecast for another
day or two, followed by a faster motion to the northeast when Octave
becomes influenced by the flow on Priscilla's southeast side. The
track forecast remains in general agreement with the Google Deep
Mind ensemble mean and HCCA.

Octave will likely lose a little more strength during the next day
or so while it remains over marginal SSTs and in a generally dry
environment. While the storm's intensity could plateau during the
middle portion of the week, there is good agreement among the models
that Octave will open into a trough or become absorbed into the
outer circulation of Priscilla in a few days. The NHC intensity
forecast is again lower than the previous one, and leans closer to
the lower end of the model intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.1N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.5N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 16.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Satellite imagery shows a compact tropical cyclone with a burst of
deep convection that has redeveloped over and north of the low-level
circulation center after briefly diminishing earlier today.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt,
and objective intensity estimates range from 34 to 45 kt. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 110 degrees, at
around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue through Tuesday as
the storm moves on the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level
trough extending west-southwestward off the U.S. West Coast, and
south of a much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward
well to the east. A gradual turn back toward the east is forecast
late Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by a northeastward
acceleration by Thursday as Octave begins to interact with and
ultimately becomes absorbed by Priscilla. This forecast track lies
slightly to the right or south of the previous NHC forecast and
represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind
guidance.

Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain
its structure and intensity for another day or so before succumbing
to the increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and
dry mid-level air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter,
and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday as it becomes
absorbed within Priscilla’s larger circulation. The new intensity
forecast is near the upper end of the guidance for the next day or
so, then trends toward the middle portion of the guidance envelope
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.8N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 15.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.1N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.1N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave continues to produce bursts
of deep convection, with a new area of cold cloud tops redeveloping
and expanding over and north of the low-level circulation center
during the past several hours. A 0541 UTC METOP-C ASCAT pass showed
that the storm's compact structure remains intact, with peak surface
winds around 40 kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB remain 3.0/45 kt, and objective intensity estimates range from
26 to 41 kt. Based on these data and consistent satellite trends,
the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 110 degrees, at
around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue today as the storm
moves along the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level trough
extending southwestward from the U.S. West Coast, and south of a
much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the
east-northeast. A gradual turn back toward the east is forecast
tonight into Wednesday, followed by a northeastward acceleration by
Thursday as Octave begins to interact with, and possibly become,
absorbed by Priscilla. This forecast track is very similar to the
previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids
and the Google DeepMind guidance.

Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain
its intensity for another day or so before succumbing to an
increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier
air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is
expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscilla’s
larger circulation. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 15.8N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.4N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 17.9N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Octave is maintaining some clusters of deep convection primarily
over the western portions of its circulation. However, convective
banding features are mostly lacking. There is some limited
upper-level outflow over the southern semicircle of the system. The
estimated intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, although
this might be generous given the satellite appearance of the storm
and an earlier scatterometer overpass.

The cyclone center is estimated to be near the southeastern side of
the main area of deep convection, with an initial motion of around
110/6 kt. Octave is currently embedded within a broad area of low-
to mid-level westerlies, and this should maintain a mainly eastward
motion for the next day or so. Later, the system should move
east-northeastward as it becomes partially entrained into the large
circulation of Hurricane Priscilla centered several hundred miles
to its east-northeast. The official forecast is close to the
previous one and in good agreement with the simple and corrected
consensus track model guidance.

Easterly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Octave,
and the low-level circulation of the storm should become
increasingly disrupted by the influence of Priscilla. So,
although the system should remain over marginally warm SSTs during
the next few days, the upper- and lower-level flow environment is
likely to become less conducive during the next 48 hours. Octave
is forecast to weaken to dissipation in 60-72 hours. This is
similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 17.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Satellite imagery shows that Octave continues to produce
intermittent bursts of deep convection, primarily across the
southern and southwestern portions of the circulation due to
easterly shear influencing the system. An earlier ASCAT pass
indicated that the system remains intact, though the strongest winds
are now confined to the southern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while objective
estimates range between 25 and 33 kt. Based on these data and the
persistent satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 100 degrees, at
around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue into early
Wednesday as the storm moves along the southern periphery of a mid-
to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the U.S. West
Coast and beneath the much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking
northwestward several hundred miles to the northeast. A turn toward
the northeast, along with some acceleration, is expected late
Wednesday into Thursday as Octave moves south of Priscilla and near
another developing system (EP90) to its southeast near the southwest
coast of Mexico. This forecast track is very similar to the previous
NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the
Google DeepMind guidance.

Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain
its intensity into early Wednesday before succumbing to an
increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier
air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is
expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscilla’s
larger circulation to the north and EP90 to its southeast. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near
the middle portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 15.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level center is
exposed on the northeast side of a convective mass, which has been
decreasing in coverage and intensity over the past few hours.
Subjective Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-45 kt. A recent ASCAT
pass showed peak vectors of 38 kt, so the initial intensity has
been set to 40 kt. The ASCAT data also indicated that the
circulation is still closed/well-defined. However, the
northwesterly winds associated with Priscilla's circulation are
only located about 100 n mi to the northeast of Octave. It is
possible that the Octave could dissipate at any time over the next
24 hours, even though dissipation isn't explicitly forecast until
beyond 24 h.

Octave is moving toward the east-northeast at 10 kt. A gradual
bend toward the northeast with some acceleration is expected as
Octave moves around the southern side of Priscilla. There are no
significant changes to the track forecast, which lies near the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA).

Strong easterly shear over 30 kt is expected to continue for the
remainder of Octave's lifetime. While bursts of convection may
still form, any convection should quickly be sheared off to the
west. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show Octave losing its
convection by hour 24, but as noted above, Octave could lose its
closed circulation and dissipate at any time. The closer Octave
gets to Priscilla, the sooner Octave is likely to dissipate. The
intensity forecast shows slow weakening until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

...OCTAVE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

Octave has managed to hold onto a small area of deep convection
since the previous advisory, despite east-southeasterly shear
analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be around 22 kt. However, the satellite
presentation has degraded, with the low-level circulation becoming
more ragged. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0/30 kt, while recent
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 29 and 34 kt.
Considering the deterioration in satellite appearance and the latest
intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been lowered to 35 kt.

Octave is now moving east-northeastward, or 065 degrees at 16 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed
by an eastward turn later today or tonight toward a newly developing
tropical cyclone (Invest 90E) off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
The NHC forecast track follows a blend of the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean and the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Octave appears to be nearing the end of its life, as strong easterly
shear of more than 30 kt is expected to continue affecting the
system during the next day or so. The current burst of deep
convection southwest of the low-level center is forecast to collapse
soon, according to the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery. This may already be occurring, with recent infrared
satellite images showing warming cloud tops and the remaining
convection becoming further displaced to the southwest of the
low-level center. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for Octave
to become a post-tropical remnant low in 12 hours and dissipate by
24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM MST Thu Oct 09 2025

...OCTAVE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 110.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES