Most aggressive First Advisories vs. their actual intensity

[Teban54]

Updated October 12, 2025.

Not often do you see the NHC forecast a Cat 3+ major hurricane - or even a Cat 2 - on Advisory #1. And very often (but not always), such storms end up overperforming the already aggressive initial fore
casts.

Here's a list of the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name is the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

This list was developed by kevin, and most recently posted in the thread for Humberto 2025, the latest addition. With how often the list has been referenced in recent years, I feel it's time for a dedicated thread.

Formatting (that I added):

• Storms are color-coded by verified peak category within 123 hours of Advisory #1: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5. (The 123-hour time frame extends the actual final forecast point by 6 hours, to allow leeway due to advisory times being offset from synoptic times by 3 hours.)
• Storms that underperformed are underlined.
• Storms that overperformed by at least 40 kts are in bold.

[Forecast Cat 4 peak]

120 kt

• 2023 - Lee (145)

[Forecast Cat 3 peak]

105 kt

• 2024 - Kirk (130)
• 2023 - Nigel (85)

100 kt

• 2025 - Erin (140)
• 2021 - Sam (135)
• 2010 - Tomas (85)

[Forecast Cat 2 peak]

95 kt

• 2025 - Humberto (140)
• 2024 - Milton (155)
• 2024 - Helene (120)
• 2024 - Ernesto (85)
• 2022 - Ian (140)
• 2021 - Ida (130)
• 2020 - Iota (135)
• 2019 - Lorenzo (125 in 5 days, 140 overall)
• 2012 - Isaac (55 in 5 days, 70 overall)
• 2010 - Danielle (90 in 5 days, 115 overall)
• 2005 - Philippe (70)
• 2004 - Karl (125)

90 kt

• 2024 - Beryl (145)
• 2021 - Larry (110)
• 2017 - Jose (135)
• 2016 - Matthew (145)
• 2009 - Bill (115)
• 2007 - Dean (145 in 5 days, 150 overall)

85 kt

• 2020 - Delta (120)
• 2015 - Danny (110)
• 2014 - Gonzalo (125)
• 2011 - Katia (65 in 5 days, 120 overall)
• 2010 - Igor (130 in 5 days, 135 overall)
• 2010 - Earl (115 in 5 days, 125 overall)
• 2006 - Helene (90 in 5 days, 105 overall)
• 2005 - Wilma (160)

[Forecast Cat 1 peak (80 kts only)]

80 kt

• 2025 - Jerry (55 kt)
• 2024 - Leslie (80 in 5 days, 90 overall)
• 2023 - Margot (75 in 5 days, 80 overall)
• 2022 - Danielle (75)
• 2020 - Teddy (120)
• 2019 - Jerry (90)
• 2017 - Maria (150)
• 2017 - Irma (115 in 5 days, 155 overall)
• 2016 - Gaston (65 in 5 days, 105 overall)
• 2012 - Leslie (60 in 5 days, 70 overall)
• 2005 - Rita (155)
• 2004 - Earl (45)
• 1999 - Emily (45)

[Teban54]

Now that Jerry's first advisory is out with a forecast peak of 80 kts, I've updated this post.

Other changes:

• Added the distinction between actual peak within 123 hrs (the forecast period of Advisory #1) vs. during the lifetime of a storm. (The 123-hour time frame extends the actual final forecast point by 6 hours, to allow leeway due to advisory times being offset from synoptic times by 3 hours.)
• Changed the color scheme for better distinction and readability. Cat 5 is now pink.
• Added Humberto 2025's actual intensity (pending TCR changes).
• Added Margot 2023 (80 kts forecast on Advisory #1), which was missing.
• Fixed Karl 2004's actual intensity.

Interestingly, this is the second time that the name Jerry appeared on the list -- in the same section as the previous Jerry in 2019 (80 kts forecast). Four other names have appeared on this list twice: Danielle, Earl, Helene and Leslie.

[Teban54]

Now that Jerry has dissipated, it has become one of the biggest busts on this list in recent times: despite a forecast of 80 kt on its first advisory, Jerry never became a hurricane at all and peaked as a 55 kt TS.

Most of the other "modern" underperformers are a lot more mild, or had a much higher initial forecast peak.

However, Jerry isn't the biggest bust on the list. Two other TCs had the same initial forecast peak of 80 kt, but had an even weaker peak than Jerry:

• Earl 2004: Forecast to reach 80 kt in 5 days, but actual peak was 45 kt.
• Emily 1999: This one is crazy. In 1999, NHC advisories only extended out to 3 days. Emily's first advisory had a current intensity of 55 kt, and it was forecast to reach 80 kt in just 72 hours. However... Even the real-time intensity was revised down in TCR, from 55 to 45 kt. That was the strongest that Emily ever got.

Two other TCs on this list, coincidentally both in 2012, failed to become hurricanes within the 5-day forecast window but peaked as Cat 1 hurricanes later: Isaac and Leslie.