Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

500mb shows some improvements in the longer run, but as we know during this seasonal transition, patterns aren't effective without air mass change. There will probably be some improvements (bar is quite low right now) closer to normal at some point. Luckily even normal will be nice for a change...we'll see what happens. For the most part continent is still warm.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw baby steps haha, but definitely some improvements in the ensembles, teleconnections are starting to turn slightly more favorable , I will say one thing i am encouraged about is how fast the snow season is running in siberia, they are above normal to date right now , i think that should help to aid in cooling our source region down, definitely will take a couple of weeks, but definitely some positive steps in the right direction if you want more fall like or cooler weather, long ways to go though

[Ntxw]

Stratton the set of early analog years I noted in prior page/pages do feature a fast start in Siberia, quite cold. If history repeats, there may be a big early cold blast in December. 2021 is the year that didn't feature that but kicked off in January.

[Stratton23]

Thats quite the pattern change on the GFS!

[mmmmsnouts]

Gotta love putting out the Halloween decorations and it’s still 90 degrees outside, and the stakes won’t push down into the rock hard ground even though I watered last night, and every mosquito in the city is biting up my legs. What a stupid place to live.

[Cpv17]

Gotta love putting out the Halloween decorations and it’s still 90 degrees outside, and the stakes won’t push down into the rock hard ground even though I watered last night, and every mosquito in the city is biting up my legs. What a stupid place to live.

I’m not sure about up there, but down here, not only are the mosquitoes kinda bad, but the gnats are even worse. I can’t even walk outside without them flying all over my face.

[Brent]

Well looks like we got a real shot at staying in the 70s tomorrow. That's news for lately

I still see evidence of more average temps at least towards the 20th. It can't last forever

I'm much more concerned about how dry it's gotten all the sudden to be honest

[Stratton23]

looks like around the 20th is when the pattern really begins to change, GFS with a major push of fall like air all the way down to brownsville, I really do think changes are coming, we just gotta be patient, though i cant ask for changes soon enough LOL!

[Cpv17]

looks like around the 20th is when the pattern really begins to change, GFS with a major push of fall like air all the way down to brownsville, I really do think changes are coming, we just gotta be patient, though i cant ask for changes soon enough LOL!

I would just like dews in the 50’s & 60’s with a chance of rain every now and then. That’s about all I’m asking for lol

[Brent]

GFS has 30s at the end of the run here

Its gonna happen eventually

I still wish it was wetter though because winter is usually dry here no matter what

[Cpv17]

GFS has 30s at the end of the run here

Its gonna happen eventually

I still wish it was wetter though because winter is usually dry here no matter what

Setting the stages for a really bad start to 2026. Hope next spring produces in a big way or else next summer will be pure hell.

[txtwister78]

looks like around the 20th is when the pattern really begins to change, GFS with a major push of fall like air all the way down to brownsville, I really do think changes are coming, we just gotta be patient, though i cant ask for changes soon enough LOL!

I hear you regarding the pattern change but until I begin to see it on the ensembles, I don't see this "summer like" pattern in the fall ending anytime soon.

The good news is at least we get a little reprieve from the humidity from time to time when we do manage to get a weak front to move on through even if it doesn't change our temp outlook much. The other bright spot in an otherwise dry and warm weather pattern like this is because it's October and not August our max temps are low to mid 90's not 100's. But we desperately need some rain and that continues to be my main concern for areas still locked in this never ending drought.

A few pop up showers today is the best we can hope for but man this pattern is locked in dry for now.

[South Texas Storms]

The weather pattern across TX has been very boring and way too warm and dry for my liking so far this fall. But this comes after one of the best summers and quietest hurricane seasons we've had in many years so I can't complain much.

Looking way ahead, there's a good chance we see El Nino return next year. If it's a traditional one, we should see a relatively cooler and wetter year, especially late.

[Ntxw]

This day back in 2012 a strong cold front came through. High at DFW was 53 and low the next morning of 39, quite chilly in early October. Years of old!

[Quixotic]

This day back in 2012 a strong cold front came through. High at DFW was 53 and low the next morning of 39, quite chilly in early October. Years of old!

Had a white Christmas that year in parts of the metro. Tornado sirens in the morning. Six inches of wind driven snow by evening.

[rwfromkansas]

Gotta love putting out the Halloween decorations and it’s still 90 degrees outside, and the stakes won’t push down into the rock hard ground even though I watered last night, and every mosquito in the city is biting up my legs. What a stupid place to live.

I’m not sure about up there, but down here, not only are the mosquitoes kinda bad, but the gnats are even worse. I can’t even walk outside without them flying all over my face.

My house is full of these weird triangle-shaped little flies that aren't your typical fruit fly or regular fly, not sure what the heck they are.

But, we need a dang freeze.

[Stratton23]

This - PNA needs to literally buzz off, their might be a typoon that recurves in the western pacific this week, hopefully that is enough to force a large scale pattern change over NA that models arent quite seeing , because I know myself and most folks on this forum are sick of this warmth and dry pattern we have been stuck in, we need something to break this - PNA pattern

[HockeyTx82]

Did I miss something, there seems to be some rain showers popping up around the area?

[Brent]

This day back in 2012 a strong cold front came through. High at DFW was 53 and low the next morning of 39, quite chilly in early October. Years of old!

Earliest freeze ever in Tulsa!!!

Yup those were the days

Did I miss something, there seems to be some rain showers popping up around the area?

There was a weak front here this morning.... For a day it's not sunny and hot

Although yeah the moisture has been sparse

[snownado]

Did I miss something, there seems to be some rain showers popping up around the area?

Didn't get any preciptation at the house (there were apparently a couple of pop up showers hust a couple miles to the N and E of here), but I did drive through some sprinkles and a cloud deck did park itself over this part of town for most of the afternoon, blocking the sun and offeirng some temp relief.