Possible Development near the NW Bahamas/SE Florida

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next
day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to
occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula
and into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Nimbus]

You can see where the tail end of the front is trying to organize, usually these meander south then west before moving NW which might give it some time over warm SST`s.

Should be able to locate the center with buoy surface pressures and winds once it closes off.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next
day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to
occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula
and into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[chaser1]

Newest model runs not showing any love for this at all.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas
along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to
meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance
with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Blown Away]

18z ICON says 87 hours to SFL landfall. SFL Katrina possible? The ICON takes a big W with Imelda, does it have credit now??

[Ubuntwo]

12z UKMet developed this, but as a very slow burn as the front lingers. A low forms in about four days before drifting and slowly deepening.

[Blown Away]

SFL Katrina??

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/yOUQGsb.png

12z UKMet developed this, but as a very slow burn as the front lingers. A low forms in about four days before drifting and slowly deepening.

Indeed:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.6N 81.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 24.6N 81.9W 1007 27
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 24.5N 82.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 25.0N 81.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 25.4N 79.9W 1003 38

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/yOUQGsb.png

12z UKMet developed this, but as a very slow burn as the front lingers. A low forms in about four days before drifting and slowly deepening.

Indeed:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.6N 81.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 24.6N 81.9W 1007 27
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 24.5N 82.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 25.0N 81.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 25.4N 79.9W 1003 38

Larry,
Is the Ukmet seeing our NHC “X” east of SFL or is this a crossover from WCAR 7 days from now??

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/yOUQGsb.png

12z UKMet developed this, but as a very slow burn as the front lingers. A low forms in about four days before drifting and slowly deepening.

Indeed:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.6N 81.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 24.6N 81.9W 1007 27
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 24.5N 82.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 25.0N 81.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 25.4N 79.9W 1003 38

Larry,
Is the Ukmet seeing our NHC “X” east of SFL or is this a crossover from WCAR 7 days from now??

This is from the NHC 10/10 area. The 12Z UKMET showed a weak (1010mb) low forming over the FL Straits/Upper Keys in about 4 days, followed by a painfully slow westward drift for a couple days until it reaches Key West, stalls, then at the very end of the run, it starts to move ENE, reaching Biscayne Bay by 168hr at 1003mb.

[LarryWx]

Indeed:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.6N 81.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 132 24.6N 81.9W 1007 27
1200UTC 09.10.2025 144 24.5N 82.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 10.10.2025 156 25.0N 81.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 10.10.2025 168 25.4N 79.9W 1003 38

Larry,
Is the Ukmet seeing our NHC “X” east of SFL or is this a crossover from WCAR 7 days from now??

This is from the NHC 10/10 area. The 12Z UKMET showed a weak (1010mb) low forming over the FL Straits/Upper Keys in about 4 days, followed by a painfully slow westward drift for a couple days until it reaches Key West, stalls, then at the very end of the run, it starts to move ENE, reaching Biscayne Bay by 168hr at 1003mb.

https://i.imgur.com/5oFDJrb.jpeg

The 0Z UKMET also has it but it doesn’t become a TD til 168, when it is in the NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.1N 77.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2025 168 26.1N 77.8W 1007 33

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Bahamas and Southern Florida:
A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas
continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas
and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however
development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east
coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.