What’s your hottest take on the tropics?

[WaveBreaking]

I’ve seen plenty of hot takes before on social media for tornadoes (e.g., El Reno 2013 should have stayed an EF5, the 200mph EF4 Rochelle tornado dilemma, “Tornado X was an EF5 because of THIS damage indicator!”, whether or not storm chasers are obliged to help with the aftermath of a tornado, etc.), but I’ve never seen a post specifically on here for hot takes on tropical weather, so I’ll go ahead and make one .

So what’s your hottest take on the tropics?

I’ll start with mine: I usually find subtropical cyclones (yes, even the really ugly ones with naked swirls and barely any convection) more interesting than regular TCs.

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane Sam was a clear and visible Category 5 at peak, just like Humberto and Isabel which were officially considered C5 hurricanes and had no recon at peak. And also excuse my boldness, but I also can't understand why so many people are so hesitant to agree with this, even if they give a good reason not to It's just my humble and hot take!

[Kazmit]

Too much emphasis is placed on the costliness of a storm or season when judging how “bad” it is. If a single $10 million mansion is destroyed it is counted as more damage than twenty $400,000 homes destroyed in the same way. This is especially apparent when comparing less developed countries like Haiti to the United States. It’s a useful metric for insurance companies, but maybe not otherwise.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I'm mad that Hurricane Carla got demoted from her Cat 5 status in the 2018 re-analysis. I have no real scientific argument against it, it just makes me upset. Kind of like Pluto being reclassified as a dwarf planet. Even though that made scientific sense, I felt like Pluto should have been grandfathered into the planet category or something

I feel the same way about super-Eddington accretion vs direct collapse as supermassive black hole formation mechanisms. Neither is currently known to be correct, and I can't really say which one looks more likely currently since the field is so new, but I think the first one is so much cooler bruh

[storm_in_a_teacup]

My other hot hurricane take is people should be making more personified hurricane characters that look like hurricanes (it seems like everyone either makes them into people or gives them two eyes for some reason) but this is more of an art than science gripe

[sasha_B]

My general hot take is that the SSHWS deserves a rework (or at least an auxilliary scale) given the research suggesting that MSLP is a better predictor of impacts from landfalling Atlantic hurricanes, and the fact that pressure is easier to measure accurately and precisely than 1-minute sustained winds, especially in high-end storms. It's also simply a better way to compare the "absolute" intensity of tropical cyclones across areas of responsibility, since there are three different standards in use (10-minute, 3-minute, and 1-minute sustained) and until/unless the standards are unified, directly comparing the WMO-official wind speed peaks of storms requires rough approximations. Having a single SI unit, that's not rounded to multiples of 5, and is used by all met agencies, makes statistics much easier to read and work with.

Somewhat colder take is that several WPac typhoons have probably come closer to Patricia's peak than officially estimated. Direct evidence of this is spotty at best due to the paucity of recon observations in the basin, but the WPac (and even the Atlantic!) have historically had more sub-900 hPa cyclones than the EPac. Plotting the official wind and pressure peaks of upper-echelon TCs globally on a grid shows just how much of an outlier Patricia was, and since we have direct observations to corroborate Patricia's intensity, the likely explanation seems to be that some of the strongest typhoons of the 21st century have been underestimated just as those of the mid-20th century were overestimated.

[Teban54]

Hurricanes that peak in the subtropics, as well as seasons with much activity concentrated in the subtropics, are more impressive than "conventional" deep-tropics-heavy seasons -- not less.

[AnnularCane]

I'm mad that Hurricane Carla got demoted from her Cat 5 status in the 2018 re-analysis. I have no real scientific argument against it, it just makes me upset. Kind of like Pluto being reclassified as a dwarf planet. Even though that made scientific sense, I felt like Pluto should have been grandfathered into the planet category or something

I feel the same way about super-Eddington accretion vs direct collapse as supermassive black hole formation mechanisms. Neither is currently known to be correct, and I can't really say which one looks more likely currently since the field is so new, but I think the first one is so much cooler bruh

I feel the same way about Iota. I'm also still not 100% convinced Eta wasn't a cat 5 at some point.

Also I think naked swirls are way more beautiful than they're given credit for.

[Nuno]

- Iota was a category 5.

- Sam was a category 5.

- I think there is a lot of nitpicking about categorization and what makes a "storm" truly a "storm" these days. The shifting definitions and perspectives over time impact how warnings and watches are implemented, which are more rigid than local weather hazard advisories. This may be an NWS issue, not necessarily NHC from the mets i have spoken to.

- I think deaths are severely undercounted in storms like Andrew, Maria, Otis and Ian. A Puerto Rican study confirmed what most people were suspecting about Maria's death count a few years ago: https://gwtoday.gwu.edu/gw-researchers- ... cane-maria

[storm_in_a_teacup]

- Iota was a category 5.

- Sam was a category 5.

- I think there is a lot of nitpicking about categorization and what makes a "storm" truly a "storm" these days. The shifting definitions and perspectives over time impact how warnings and watches are implemented, which are more rigid than local weather hazard advisories. This may be an NWS issue, not necessarily NHC from the mets i have spoken to.

- I think deaths are severely undercounted in storms like Andrew, Maria, Otis and Ian. A Puerto Rican study confirmed what most people were suspecting about Maria's death count a few years ago: https://gwtoday.gwu.edu/gw-researchers- ... cane-maria

There was a recent paper that found deaths from hurricanes in the U.S. in general are very underestimated. Like the true toll is thousands of more people. I posted it in this forum a month ago I think

[cheezyWXguy]

As I mentioned in the Imelda thread, Sally ‘20 warranted an upgrade to cat3 and didn’t get it, while the upgrade of Zeta ‘20 to cat3 was unwarranted.

[chaser1]

Wanna really separate the boys from the men (not intended to be sexist, ladies )? I'd like to see Seasonal Forecasts evolve to include a new additional metric. Instead of the current (eg. 13/6/2 ACE: 125), those with the cojones to REALLY put it on the line should be willing to also include a numerical number or score for that season's IRP, or Impact Risk Potential. Whether measured in terms of percentage of population, percentage of named storms projected to impact land, or some broader simple color code seasonal projection suggestive of low, medium, high, extreme numbers of named storms anticipated to threaten population (or landfall) regions.

Such a metric would be less focused on numbers, but perhaps better highlight anticipated risk of impact based on forecast location of tropical genesis (or "hot-spots") and anticipated track pattern forecasts for the upcoming season.

For that matter, I could envision an even more useful application for any given Invest, T.D, T.S. or Hurricane within NHC T.W.O.'s or Storm advisories. Doing so might result in the general public to be more alerted & aware of some new Invest forecast to develop, then some recurving Cat 2 hurricane out in the East or Central Atlantic.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The fact most hurricane seasons seem lately to have their prime peak in October is largely driven by climate change.

[tolakram]

Many amateurs think a 15 year trend indicates the world has changed.

[TomballEd]

My general hot take is that the SSHWS deserves a rework (or at least an auxilliary scale) given the research suggesting that MSLP is a better predictor of impacts from landfalling Atlantic hurricanes, and the fact that pressure is easier to measure accurately and precisely than 1-minute sustained winds, especially in high-end storms. It's also simply a better way to compare the "absolute" intensity of tropical cyclones across areas of responsibility, since there are three different standards in use (10-minute, 3-minute, and 1-minute sustained) and until/unless the standards are unified, directly comparing the WMO-official wind speed peaks of storms requires rough approximations. Having a single SI unit, that's not rounded to multiples of 5, and is used by all met agencies, makes statistics much easier to read and work with.

Somewhat colder take is that several WPac typhoons have probably come closer to Patricia's peak than officially estimated. Direct evidence of this is spotty at best due to the paucity of recon observations in the basin, but the WPac (and even the Atlantic!) have historically had more sub-900 hPa cyclones than the EPac. Plotting the official wind and pressure peaks of upper-echelon TCs globally on a grid shows just how much of an outlier Patricia was, and since we have direct observations to corroborate Patricia's intensity, the likely explanation seems to be that some of the strongest typhoons of the 21st century have been underestimated just as those of the mid-20th century were overestimated.

More work to calculate but that means nothing in the days of supercomputing, integrated kinetic energy is better than both. On point 2, it has been almost 40 years since the 54th WRS out of Guam stopped flying missions, but I'd think the ASEAN nations, maybe Japan, maybe even Australia if planes have a second Southern Hemisphere base, could form a multinational weather recon group. The end of the 54th happened at a time where it was becoming clear the Philippines would not agree to a renewed base leasing agreement. No more US military bases in the RP, no national interest. Although Guam as a US territory should count for something.

[sasha_B]

More work to calculate but that means nothing in the days of supercomputing, integrated kinetic energy is better than both.

Oh, I agreee that IKE should be more widely utilised, especially when it comes to estimating threat level & issuing appropriate advisories for current and future storms - it is indeed better than any single metric in that regard. The one edge that a simple MSLP-based system of categories analogous to the SSHWS would have over IKE would be historical comparisons, as many TCs of the late 20th century lack entries for their 34/50/60 kt wind radii for most or all of their durations in best track databases, but have fairly reliable and consistently-documented central pressure fixes. You can go back decades and chart how many cyclones in a given basin or region dropped below 960 hPa each year, for example, whereas to do the same for a given IKE threshold would further constrain the temporal range you could cover.

[ljmac75]

Matthew was not a 5.
Eta was not a 5.
Iota was not a 5.
Sam was not a 5.
Ida was not a 5.

[Fancy1002]

Jose 2017 was a 5

[Hammy]

There is no such thing as a 'wasted name', and even the most seemingly marginal systems should be included if they meet the criteria, for the sake of having a complete (and consistent) historical record

[al78]

Wanna really separate the boys from the men (not intended to be sexist, ladies )? I'd like to see Seasonal Forecasts evolve to include a new additional metric. Instead of the current (eg. 13/6/2 ACE: 125), those with the cojones to REALLY put it on the line should be willing to also include a numerical number or score for that season's IRP, or Impact Risk Potential. Whether measured in terms of percentage of population, percentage of named storms projected to impact land, or some broader simple color code seasonal projection suggestive of low, medium, high, extreme numbers of named storms anticipated to threaten population (or landfall) regions.

Such a metric would be less focused on numbers, but perhaps better highlight anticipated risk of impact based on forecast location of tropical genesis (or "hot-spots") and anticipated track pattern forecasts for the upcoming season.

For that matter, I could envision an even more useful application for any given Invest, T.D, T.S. or Hurricane within NHC T.W.O.'s or Storm advisories. Doing so might result in the general public to be more alerted & aware of some new Invest forecast to develop, then some recurving Cat 2 hurricane out in the East or Central Atlantic.

I am skeptical it would be possible to come up with a seasonal forecast model for IRP with any skill at any lead time. The impact level of even an individual storm is dictated by effectively quasi-random events on small timescales, good luck coming up with a model that can show skill at the seasonal level.

For example, if conditions had been a little different, Irma could have hit Miami at close to cat 5 intensity, Andrew could have made a direct hit on Miami or passed over the keys, Dorian could have come ashore in Florida instead of turning north over the Bahamas, Floyd could have been a worse version of Andrew, and if it had moved a bit further north and started its rapid intensification 24 hours earlier, Rita could have slammed into south Florida as a cat 4.