Tropical Wave well south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[canes92]

Just stay away from Florida lol

[Category5Kaiju]

I know the 18z GFS run (and, for that matter, the recent string of GFS runs) have been the topic of quite some chatter. It's obviously getting late into the season as we're firmly in fall now, so....you may wonder, is it even possible to have a significant, MDR-born hurricane threaten the CONUS, especially the East Coast, this late in the year?

The answer to this question is yes, albeit very rare. Two hurricanes come to mind: Matthew from 2016 and Hazel from 1954. They also took very similar paths, being pulled north from the ECAR and then northwestward enough that they basically came into contact with the East Coast. Now, it's still extremely early and there's certainly reason to doubt that such a kind of situation would arise with this future system, but in a late-blooming year with still-warm ssts and -ENSO-boosted favorable wind shear levels and that stuff, one has to wonder if *this* storm might be somewhat more of interest to watch, especially for land, compared to the many recurving storms we've had recently

[Teban54]

or ?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1973556156078629117

[Teban54]

GEFS trend over the past 24 hours. Stronger signals at 6z and 18z, weaker at 0z and 12z. Unlike the operational runs, ensembles mostly recurve well east of CONUS - but some only after impacting the Lesser Antilles (or even entering NE Caribbean proper).



12z EPS at the end of the run. Intensity is a mixed bag, but there are some strong hurricanes. Track is inconclusive given the shorter lead time.



A possible analog is Tammy 2023, another unusually late CV hurricane:

[emeraldislenc]

Glad someone mentioned Hazel in 1954. It came from the Atlantic then to the Caribbean did tremendous damage in Haiti and then came ashore near Calabash. Did extensive damage to the Coastal Carolina's then marched north through NC and the U.S. and wound up in Canada. A storm to remember. I remember Hazel!

[ConvergenceZone]

it's that time of year when fronts sweeping across the US are really going to be on the increase. I mean even here in California we are getting early rains which is unusual for late September. But the increase in fronts SHOULD protect the east coast for the rest of the season. I think if anything is going to affect the USA, it will need to come from the Gulf, and not really seeing anything on the radar for the next 2 weeks, so if we are lucky we might be in the clear until 2026. Never say never, but I like what I'm seeing on the extended outlook.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah ok, October Cruiser, why not. As if this season hasn't been strange enough

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025


Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[CFLHurricane]

I think if anything is going to affect the USA, it will need to come from the Gulf, and not really seeing anything on the radar for the next 2 weeks, so if we are lucky we might be in the clear until 2026. Never say never, but I like what I'm seeing on the extended outlook.

I agree this assessment has been spot on, and extend it to this entire season. This is a season the AEWs take a backseat to CAGs, as far as CONUS is concerned.

[kevin]

About 60% of members on the 06z GEFS show a TC at day 6 (+144hr).

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Cachondo23]

About 60% of members on the 06z GEFS show a TC at day 6 (+144hr).

https://i.imgur.com/kI8XPn5.png

Even if it stays low, we know the drill this season… all at the end just wants to recurve before the Lesser Antilles but, as always, too early to really know the outcome.

[Teban54]

Operational GFS has a Maine landfall two runs in a row. Even though it's obviously way too far out, and even if you ignore impacts to the Caribbean islands, it shows that CONUS impacts are still possible.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO develops and is a wild drive to the SW at the end. It moves thru the NE Caribbean islands, then it goes SW thru DR and Haiti and reaches the Caribbean sea.

[cycloneye]

It ends here.

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/ZR79CYJ.gif

It seems like a GFS-ish run to me.

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/ZR79CYJ.gif

It ends here.

https://i.imgur.com/JyedUu8.gif

Ouch, right through the Shredder.

Doesn't seem to hurt it too much though.