When will the streak of years with CAT 4+ storms break?

[ryxn314]

Since 2014, we've been having an unprecedented streak of 130 mph or greater storms occur at least once a year. That's a 12-year streak so far. The previous record was all the way back during 1947-1955 which was a 9-year streak. 1998-2005 was also impressive with its 8-years-in-a-row. It could have been as high as 17 years in a row (1995-2011) if Erika (1997) was 5 mph stronger and Gordon/Helene (2006) were 10 mph stronger. But we've been on an extra hot streak of 145mph+ storms, forget 130mph+.

The question is, when will we finally see a season that doesn't go above CAT 3? Or are the waters just getting too darn warm for that, even during quiet years? This year has been on 2 extremes with the tropical storms and majors...and when there is a major it overperforms.

Do you think we'll continue to see this in the next few years or will we get a season with no CAT 4+ storms before 2030?

What are your thoughts?

[sasha_B]

I don't know what the data suggest (and forecasting that far out isn't feasible even with the best data) but on gut/intuition alone? Doubtful that the streak will break before 2030. 2013 was an anomalously inactive year for reasons that have been well-studied and suggest that a repeat is unlikely. 2012 didn't have a Cat 4 but one would be forgiven for forgetting that, considering Sandy's impacts & her central pressure at peak and at landfall. After 2012 and 2013, you've got to go back to 2006 to find a year without one, as you mentioned.
I don't have the spreadsheet handy right now, but a while back I was looking over HURDAT-2 and calculated the average/arithmetic mean intensity of the strongest Atlantic hurricane of each season since 1979. If I recall correctly (and if I check and turn out to be wrong, I'll edit this post to correct it) it came out to something in the vicinity of 220 kph / 120 kts and mid-to-lower 940s hPa. A season with a Cat 4 is more likely than one without, in the current climatological period at least. The question is whether "likelier than not" is becoming "all-but-guaranteed" as the century goes on.

[aaaaaa]

next strong el nino year

[WeatherBoy2000]

2014 was the last season that failed to produce a hurricane of at least 135kts (155mph), every season since 2015 has produced at least one cat 5 or near cat 5 hurricane. I think with an ever warming Atlantic, seeing a season that doesn't produce at least a cat 4 will become increasingly rarer. There are only four seasons left until 2030, we may see a season that fails to produce a highend cat 4, but not one at all seems much more unlikely.

[Teban54]

next strong el nino year

That's what people thought would happen to 2023... A year in which we got 145 kt Lee.

[Teban54]

2014 was the last season that failed to produce a hurricane of at least 135kts (155mph), every season since 2015 has produced at least one cat 5 or near cat 5 hurricane. I think with an ever warming Atlantic, seeing a season that doesn't produce at least a cat 4 will become increasingly rarer. There are only four seasons left until 2030, we may see a season that fails to produce a highend cat 4, but not one at all seems much more unlikely.

One caveat to keep in mind (even though it doesn't fundamentally change the conversation): There's a reasonable belief that Matthew 2016 was severely over-estimated.

Matthew's peak intensity of 145 kt was given by taking SFMR at face value. But in the very next year, the NHC started doubting SFMR in high-end hurricanes due to an upward bias, and it seems that some skepticism remains to this day (despite a correction in the algorithm during the mean time). This had famously led to Iota's downgrade to Cat 4 post-season, as well as Irma's peak wind speed reduction in the TCR, and is suspected to have contributed to the lack of upgrades for other storms (Jose 2017, Sam 2021, etc).

I wasn't following the tropics in 2016, so I don't know the details; but I had even seen people opining that Matthew's true intensity was as low as 125 kt. I'm not sure if it was really that low... But any substantial downward adjustment could impact some of these streaks and statistics.

[MarioProtVI]

2014 was the last season that failed to produce a hurricane of at least 135kts (155mph), every season since 2015 has produced at least one cat 5 or near cat 5 hurricane. I think with an ever warming Atlantic, seeing a season that doesn't produce at least a cat 4 will become increasingly rarer. There are only four seasons left until 2030, we may see a season that fails to produce a highend cat 4, but not one at all seems much more unlikely.

One caveat to keep in mind (even though it doesn't fundamentally change the conversation): There's a reasonable belief that Matthew 2016 was severely over-estimated.

Matthew's peak intensity of 145 kt was given by taking SFMR at face value. But in the very next year, the NHC started doubting SFMR in high-end hurricanes due to an upward bias, and it seems that some skepticism remains to this day (despite a correction in the algorithm during the mean time). This had famously led to Iota's downgrade to Cat 4 post-season, as well as Irma's peak wind speed reduction in the TCR, and is suspected to have contributed to the lack of upgrades for other storms (Jose 2017, Sam 2021, etc).

I wasn't following the tropics in 2016, so I don't know the details; but I had even seen people opining that Matthew's true intensity was as low as 125 kt. I'm not sure if it was really that low... But any substantial downward adjustment could impact some of these streaks and statistics.

The intensity at its Haiti landfall is debated by some but 130 kt there is very likely (very small case for 135 kt but that’s the highest any meaningful evidence suggests at the high end). I think more people are measuring this streak by means of storms at or stronger then 130 kt / 150 mph.