EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

EP, 98, 2025092900, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1098W, 15, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 170, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep982025.dat

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
An area of disturbed weather associated with a sharp trough of low
pressure is located several hundred miles offshore of southwest
Mexico and continues to show signs of organization, with earlier
satellite wind data indicating the surface circulation was better
defined than earlier. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in
the next day or so. The system is forecast to drift westward into
Tuesday, then turn west-northwestward thereafter, remaining over the
open waters of the central to western part of the Eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[StormWeather]

I’m beginning to wonder if it’s possible for this season to get close to using all of its names. Next letter is O and next name is Octave.

So we have Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, York and Zelda left.

10 names remain.

[Kingarabian]

Lack of steering high pressure limiting the ceiling on these systems.

[cycloneye]

Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
A small area of low pressure has developed within a broader area of
disturbed weather located several hundred miles offshore of the
southwest coast of Mexico. First light visible satellite imagery and
recent scatterometer imagery suggests a well-defined circulation is
developing. In addition, convection continues to show signs of
organization. If these trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The system is forecast to
drift westward over the next day or so, then turn west-northwestward
or northwestward thereafter, remaining over the open waters of the
central to western part of the Eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure far to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula have not improved in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for development of this
system and a tropical depression is likely to develop during the
next day or so as the low drifts slowly northward or northwestward
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2025093000, , BEST, 0, 91N, 1125W, 30, 1006, DB

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 113.2W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES





Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

The area of low pressure located well south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become better
organized over the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows
persistent convection and the development of a well-defined curved
band. In addition, a recent 0355 UTC Metop-B ASCAT pass revealed a
well-defined center along with a couple of 30-kt wind barbs. As a
result, the system has met the criteria to be classified as a
tropical cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 2.0/30 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively. Based
on a blend of these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Fifteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Fifteen-E is estimated to be moving slowly west-northwestward, or
295 degrees at 4 kt. This west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue today, along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level
ridge situated north of the cyclone. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today as a weak low to the north
of Fifteen-E erodes the ridge, with this general motion likely
continuing through around 48 hours. Thereafter, a building
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer
Fifteen-E west-northwestward beyond 48 hours through the end of the
forecast period. The official track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope and is closest to the TVCE consensus aid.

Fifteen-E will remain over warm waters and within a moist
environment during the next several days, but moderate to strong
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder
significant intensification. Some slight strengthening is forecast
during the next 12 hours, and Fifteen-E is expected to reach
tropical storm strength later today. Little change in strength is
anticipated through much of the forecast period, followed by some
modest strengthening on days 4 and 5 as the shear is forecast to
relax slightly. The intensity forecast is of low confidence and
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to a
blend of the SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 9.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 9.8N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.8N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 13.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.5N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 15.0N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave.

EP, 15, 2025093012, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1133W, 35, 1004, TS

[Kingarabian]

Euro not doing much with this since it combines it with a different system in a few days. GFS keeps it a separate entity.

[TomballEd]

Euro not doing much with this since it combines it with a different system in a few days. GFS keeps it a separate entity.

And gives us more Fujiwara action.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 113.5W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

The convective structure of the depression has continued to improve
this morning, with cold cloud tops (-80C CMG) developing over the
surface center, and a deep convective curved band located in the
east semicircle of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0 and T3.0, and the UW-CIMSS
objective intensity analyses range from 34-39 kt. Based on a blend
of these data and the cyclone's improved satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, upgrading Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E to Tropical Storm Octave.

Although Octave should remain over warm oceanic surface
temperatures, and move within a surrounding environment with ample
low- to mid-level moisture, moderate deep-layer east-northeasterly
shear is expected to hamper significant development. Accordingly,
the forecast reflects little change in strength through Thursday.
Afterward, the statistical Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance and the
global models indicate that the shear will diminish some, allowing
for some additional intensification through day 5, and the intensity
forecast follows suit.

Octave's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
325/4 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn north-northwestward to
northward later today in response to a mid-tropospheric cut-off
low drifting southward toward Octave. Beyond the 60 hour period,
model guidance indicates that a subtropical ridge will build to the
north of the cyclone and induce a west-northwestward motion through
Saturday, while the cut-off mentioned above weakens and ultimately
dissipates. By day 5, the global models agree that Octave will
slow in forward speed and gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest, while the ridge to the north of the cyclone erodes.
The NHC forecast lies close to the various consensus aids and has
been shifted a bit to the right of the previous forecast after 36
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 9.9N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 10.4N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.3N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 13.4N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.8N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.6N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...OCTAVE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO STAY OUT TO SEA OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 113.9W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES






Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

Octave continues to become a little better organized this afternoon,
with curved bands forming primarily along the southwestern side of
the small cyclone. The wind field appears so small that
scatterometer data largely missed the small circulation in the
narrow 100 n mi gap between passes. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from SAB, and T2.5/35 kt from
TAFB. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt this advisory, a
blend of the two estimates, and near the latest ADT estimate of
T2.8/41 kt and D-PRINT estimate of 40 kt.

Octave is still moving northwestward, with the latest motion
estimated at 320/4 kt. A turn more to the north-northwest is
anticipated over the next day or so as Octave interacts with the
remnant low-level vorticity of another small disturbance that is
passing the system by to the north. Most of the guidance shows
Octave quickly absorbing the weaker system, and after that is
complete, low to mid-level ridging builds back in, resulting in the
cyclone turning back west-northwestward from 36-72 h. Towards the
end of the forecast, steering currents are expected to collapse as a
longwave trough erodes the mid-level ridging and low-level monsoonal
flow becomes more established to the east of Octave. Compared to the
previous cycle, the track guidance has trended westward, and the NHC
track forecast has been shifted a little farther west early on, but
more substantially by the end of the forecast period, though it
remains east of the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean
(GDMI).

The tropical storm has been able to intensify a little today despite
being under 20-25 kt of east-northeasterly vertical wind shear. This
shear is expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours, and thus only
a slight bit of additional intensification is expected tonight
followed by a pause in strengthening. After 60 h, Shear is expected
to decrease to 10-15 kt, and how much the storm is able to intensify
will be related to its structural characteristics. Octave is
expected to remain a small tropical cyclone, so its possible it
could be prone to more rapid intensity changes (both up or down)
than shown here. For now, the intensity was bumped up a little
towards the end of the forecast period, but remains much lower than
some of the more aggressive hurricane-regional model guidance (HWRF,
HAFS-A) which develop an inner core with Octave much sooner than the
remainder of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 10.2N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.6N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.0N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 13.6N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

...OCTAVE HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 PM MST Tue Sep 30 2025

Octave remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the coldest cloud
tops displaced to the south and west of the low-level center. The
latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates about 20 kt of
east-northeasterly shear over the system. Despite this shear,
convection has persisted near the low-level center, and the cyclone
continues to exhibit well-defined banding on its southern and
western sides. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective
estimates have ranged from 33 to 41 kt since the previous advisory.
Based on a blend of these data, and given little change in the
overall satellite presentation during the past several hours, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Octave is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340 degrees
at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue tonight and
Wednesday as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge created by a disturbance to its north. Once that disturbance
is absorbed by Octave’s circulation, a mid-level ridge is forecast
to become re-established to the north of the cyclone, steering it
westward to west-northwestward from Wednesday night through
Saturday. By 120 hours, Octave is expected to slow considerably and
turn eastward as a longwave trough approaches from the northwest and
the subtropical ridge to its east is eroded by a developing tropical
cyclone offshore of southwestern Mexico. The new NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous one through 72 hours and then
slightly westward by days 4 and 5, accounting for a westward shift
in the latest guidance. The forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the GDMI aid through 72 hours, and
roughly midway between the prior track and GDMI aid beyond that
time.

Octave will remain over warm waters and within a moist environment
for the next several days. However, moderate to strong
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder
significant intensification. Some slight strengthening is possible
tonight, followed by little change in strength during the next
couple of days. Modest intensification is forecast by days 3 and 4
as the shear is expected to relax somewhat while the cyclone remains
over warm waters. By day 5, slight weakening is anticipated as
Octave moves into a drier mid-level environment and over cooler
waters near 26C. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low
beyond day 3 due to considerable spread among the guidance. The
official forecast is closest to the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance and
is very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 10.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.6N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.0N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.5N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 13.9N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.4N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.0N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 15.8N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 AM MST Wed Oct 01 2025

The satellite presentation of Octave has improved during the past
several hours, with a well-defined curved band now wrapping more
than halfway around the low-level center. This improvement in
structure appears to be due to a decrease in vertical wind shear,
which has lessened to around 16 kt according to the latest UW-CIMSS
analysis. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB also indicate a stronger system, both coming in
at 3.5/55 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective estimates are lower,
ranging between 33 and 40 kt since the previous advisory. Based on
a blend of these data, and considering the improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt for
this advisory, which may be conservative.

Octave is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 335 degrees
at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today as the
cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a
disturbance to its north. Once that disturbance is absorbed by
Octave’s circulation, a mid-level ridge is forecast to become
re-established to the north of the cyclone, steering it westward to
west-northwestward from tonight through Saturday. By 120 hours,
Octave is expected to slow considerably and turn eastward as a
longwave trough approaches from the northwest and the subtropical
ridge to its east is eroded by a developing tropical cyclone
offshore of southwestern Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has
been shifted west of the previous one to account for the delay in
the cyclone turning toward the north-northwest and to better match
the latest guidance trends. The forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and is close to a blend of the GDMI, FSSE,
TVCE, and HCCA track aids.

Octave will remain over warm water and within a moist environment
for the next several days. However, vertical wind shear is forecast
to fluctuate between moderate and strong levels, which should hinder
significant intensification. Some additional strengthening is
possible today, followed by little change in intensity over the next
few days. Modest intensification could occur by days 4 and 5 as the
shear relaxes, although sea surface temperatures will be slightly
cooler and the mid-level environment less moist by that time.
Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low due to considerable
spread among the guidance. The official forecast has been adjusted
higher to account for the cyclone’s improved structure and is most
closely aligned with the SHIPS and LGEM intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.1N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 12.5N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.0N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.4N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.3N 121.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 16.0N 121.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Octave's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the
past few hours. A convective band wraps around the southern and
eastern portion of the circulation with a banding feature also
noted over the western semicircle. The advisory intensity is set
at 55 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB.
Objective Dvorak and microwave estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little
lower than that value.

The cyclone is moving generally northwestward, or around 325/7 kt.
A west-northwestward track is likely during the next day or so,
along the southern side of a subtropical high pressure area. Later
in the forecast period, a turn to the north into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge is expected. Around day 5, Octave is forecast to
turn eastward in response to a trough off the California coast. The
official forecast is close to the latest track model consensus.

The system should remain over marginally warm waters and in a moist
mid- to low-level environment for the next several days. Easterly
vertical wind shear could relax somewhat in 2-3 days, which would
allow for some strengthening, and the system could eventually become
a hurricane. However, the small size of the cyclone suggests that
it could also be more responsive to less conducive conditions in the
future environment. The official intensity forecast is conservative
and lies more or less in the middle to upper portion of the model
guidance, which continues to show considerable spread.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.6N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.1N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.7N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 14.9N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.9N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025

...OCTAVE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 116.3W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES



Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025

In terms of organization, the storm has been holding fairly steady
since earlier today. Deep convection is strongest over the
southern portion of the circulation with tops to around -70 deg C
with limited banding features at this time. Upper-level outflow is
fairly well-defined over the western semicircle and limited
elsewhere, while the system is being affected by some easterly
vertical wind shear. The current intensity estimate is held at 55
kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and
close to an AI-objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS.

Octave continues to move on a generally northwestward track at
about 305/7 kt. A west-northwestward track is likely over the
next day or so, while the cyclone is steered by the flow on the
southern side of a weak subtropical high pressure area. In the
latter part of the forecast period, a weakness in the subtropical
ridge should induce a turn toward the north. Around the end of the
period, the system is forecast to turn eastward due to the
influence of a trough off the California coast and a larger
developing tropical cyclone off the southwest coast of Mexico. The
official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.

Moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear should continue to
affect Octave for the next couple of days while the system
traverses marginally warm SSTs. The shear could relax somewhat by
72 hours, allowing for some strengthening later in the forecast
period. However, the relatively small size of the system's
circulation probably makes it more responsive to potentially less
conducive conditions in the future environment. Given the
uncertainties, the official forecast shows only slight
strengthening. This is similar to the intensity model consensus,
IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.4N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 12.9N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.3N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.8N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 14.4N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.9N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

Shear not letting up. GFS still making this a decent system though.