Texas Fall 2025

[Stratton23]

Not getting excited yet, but models/ esnembles are starting to hint at some good blocking over alaska in the extended range, GFS shows true fall air entering the US at the end of its run, - PNA configuration as well, if we can get the EPO to tank, i like our chances of getting a bonafide fall front in early october- like 9-10th ish

[snownado]

Hard to believe it's been worse before that what is showing up but it has

Just 2 years ago, we were still in the 100s.

This is just seasonably warm weather.

Plus, October (at least in Texas) is still a Summer month. So hopefully, expectations are tempered.

[Brent]

Hard to believe it's been worse before that what is showing up but it has

Just 2 years ago, we were still in the 100s.

This is just seasonably warm weather.

Plus, October (at least in Texas) is still a Summer month. So hopefully, expectations are tempered.

Yeah I'm really getting tired of people complaining about this weather has never happened before or they remember when it used to snow(there was an ice storm in 2020 )

Heck even Tulsa has hit 98 in October before and it was almost 100 90 years ago

But it's only snowed once really at the very end hey we're getting there

[Ntxw]

The lack of rain, cloudy days is probably what makes it feel worse. I'm ok with seasonably warm this month, but it is technically a part of SON, or second wet season.

[mmmmsnouts]

FWD mentioned last night that the two tropical systems in the Atlantic are holding the rest of the weather pattern in place and things won’t really change until they’re gone.

[Stratton23]

Man the GFS is really teasing some true fall like air around the 10th, hopefully we get things to shake up in early october, im sick of this warmth, its miserable

[Brent]

Man the GFS is really teasing some true fall like air around the 10th, hopefully we get things to shake up in early october, im sick of this warmth, its miserable

Someone is posting it verbatim showing highs in the 50s here

Yeah I'd be extremely shocked if that pans out

But it can't stay hot all month

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

[starsfan65]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

How long does these the above normal will last?

[Stratton23]

Ntwx boring, boooooo

[Brent]

Now the cold front is apparently cancelled after all the hype

This is why no one should bother looking 2 weeks out

I'm telling you everytime there's a hurricane near the east coast this happens

[Stratton23]

Yeah it would be nice to just have a normal fall for once, seeing 90’s continuing into october is just misery , id rather have it 20 below zero than see another day reaching 90F lol

[Texoz]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

It feels like this is now a common fall/winter pattern for the lower half of Texas where it's mild winter until it's not, usually in February, when we get intense cold outbreaks.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

Do you have any possible analogs for this winter yet? Imo, if we get +epo, we will blowtorch. No doubting that. If we get occasional -epo, we should have a few opportunities at cold. The pacific is crucial for cold weather here!

[snownado]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

It feels like this is now a common fall/winter pattern for the lower half of Texas where it's mild winter until it's not, usually in February, when we get intense cold outbreaks.

While seasons might be trending warmer overall, you make a good point. It does seem like the cold outbreaks, when they do happen, are getting more intense.

FWIW, DFW has seen at least 2" of frozen precipitation and winter weather headlines every winter since I've arrived in late 2020 (apparently the complete opposite of Brent's experience before he moved to Tulsa).

[Brent]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

Do you have any possible analogs for this winter yet? Imo, if we get +epo, we will blowtorch. No doubting that. If we get occasional -epo, we should have a few opportunities at cold. The pacific is crucial for cold weather here!

I'm still concerned about the analogs where we were wet and relatively cooler... Most of them sucked

But I mean look at last year... Nobody predicted Florida getting nearly a foot of snow and yet it happened

I don't think anyone has a clue and I gave up on analogs back in 23-24 when we always seemed to find a snow hole

Not to mention the January storm last year was pretty much the entire average here... The storm that screwed DFW at the last minute. It just came out of nowhere

I do agree that it seems like when it gets cold now it's really really cold but I also feel like the snow falls flat at least up here when that happens. The reason we hit the jackpot in January was the temperatures were just barely cold enough. It was the perfect snowstorm here because it wasn't windy either. Conversely when February and the zero degree temperatures happened it took all day to snow an inch and the snow was blowing at 30 mph everywhere I know what I prefer and it wasnt February

Personally i think it's gonna be hard to top last year here... I mean that one storm was the biggest snow day in like a decade and January had an insane cold stretch even after the storm on top of what happened in February. I don't know how we're gonna top that honestly... We do live in the south after all the Gulf ain't that far away. We have to be realistic here. Most of the winter will probably be fairly mild

I would rather go into the winter with low expectations than expecting it to snow a lot. That was my big mistake when I moved to Tulsa and even after last winter was pretty good I'm trying to lower expectations here. Many years here it has barely snowed. That's a big reason I went to Breckenridge and drove to Kansas City last year. I needed more of a guarantee than we usually get here

Again even the January storm that panned out didn't look that great here... All the media left the city to chase it towards Texas

Well this turned into a long post but I just feel like people get their hopes up too much sometimes based off a seasonal forecast or analogs

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

Do you have any possible analogs for this winter yet? Imo, if we get +epo, we will blowtorch. No doubting that. If we get occasional -epo, we should have a few opportunities at cold. The pacific is crucial for cold weather here!

Summer response makes me believe a 2013-14 (warmer now), 2017-2018, 2021-2022 type season but way too early to tell right now. Once the actual Fall pattern sets up shop here in the coming month or two will be able to have a better handle. My early guess is that there will be some form poleward Aleutian ridge displaced to the GOA much like in the summer. So bouts of -EPO but maybe lack of Atlantic blocking. Last winter featured more of a delayed Nino response despite being cold enso, which I am not expecting this season since we are now far removed from the 2023-2024 big El Nino. We will likely revert to a more traditional Nina where trough is in Central Canada and northern US vs Atlantic Canada and northeast US.

Personally I think a composite of recent 2nd year Ninas may work of 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. We will likely see a strong Hudson Bay PV this winter with stout SE ridge.







Last year, much more Nino. No long term guidance is showing a repeat as of now.

[rwfromkansas]

Look, it may be upper 80s to around 90, but it’s hard to complain when the temps drop quickly into comfortable territory at night.

Now if we don’t switch to a rainy pattern by the end of the month that will be concerning.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Unfortunately no real tangible signs of cold air. Ens may have a short lull in Atlantic TC activity but it looks to pick up again in October to our east. This in tandem with no substantial (on the ground cold) up north that isn't model fantasy, and overall broad higher heights continuing in the north, we will likely not see any significant cool downs. At best we will look at gradual movement towards climo, but remain above normal for some time to come yet.

Do you have any possible analogs for this winter yet? Imo, if we get +epo, we will blowtorch. No doubting that. If we get occasional -epo, we should have a few opportunities at cold. The pacific is crucial for cold weather here!

Summer response makes me believe a 2013-14 (warmer now), 2017-2018, 2021-2022 type season but way too early to tell right now. Once the actual Fall pattern sets up shop here in the coming month or two will be able to have a better handle. My early guess is that there will be some form poleward Aleutian ridge displaced to the GOA much like in the summer. So bouts of -EPO but maybe lack of Atlantic blocking. Last winter featured more of a delayed Nino response despite being cold enso, which I am not expecting this season since we are now far removed from the 2023-2024 big El Nino. We will likely revert to a more traditional Nina where trough is in Central Canada and northern US vs Atlantic Canada and northeast US.

Personally I think a composite of recent 2nd year Ninas may work of 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. We will likely see a strong Hudson Bay PV this winter with stout SE ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/sktuf17.gif

https://i.imgur.com/OQkYLYY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L879yZh.gif

Last year, much more Nino. No long term guidance is showing a repeat as of now.

https://i.imgur.com/lxjD8HE.gif

21-22 winter we had more east based niña and -qbo fwiw. December was really warm but changed beginning of 2022 and it was pretty cold and stormy from what I recall. December skewed the means towards warm overall. If I was a betting man, I would go with dec-most january fairly cold and then blowtorch soon after. Just a guess.

[Stratton23]

Euro weeklies control and the CFS model all show the 2nd half of october and beyond turning cooler/ chiller than normal lol, take that with a huge grain of salt, I just hope a warm october leads to a cold december and january