NATL: GABRIELLE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 35.1W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES



Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

The satellite presentation of Gabrielle is disheveled this morning.
Deep convection has mostly collapsed, and the coldest cloud tops are
displaced well to the east of the low-level center by strong
westerly shear. Recent ASCAT data show the wind field is asymmetric,
with the strongest winds confined to the southern and eastern
portions of the circulation. The strongest winds from the instrument
were around 50 kt, but known resolution limitations suggest this is
likely not reflective of Gabrielle's peak intensity. Based on this
data and a blend of the latest satellite estimates, the initial
intensity is lowered to 65 kt.

Gabrielle is moving quickly eastward (080/28 kt) toward the Azores
within mid-latitude westerly flow. The center of Gabrielle is
expected to pass near or over the Azores late today into early
Friday. Then, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and turn toward
the southeast as it moves around the northeastern portion of an
eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. This motion takes the center
near or over the coast of Portugal by day 3. Since microwave and
scatterometer data indicated the center was slightly south of
previous estimates, the NHC track forecast has been nudged southward
during the first 24 h. Then, the forecast is mostly unchanged from
the previous one, generally following the multi-model consensus.

The cooler waters and strong shear environment suggest that
Gabrielle is unlikely to regain tropical characteristics, and it is
possible that Gabrielle transitions to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone later today or tonight. The recent scatterometer winds show
a front nearing the northern portion of Gabrielle's circulation, in
association with an upper-level trough over the northern Atlantic.
The global models indicate baroclinic interaction with this feature
should cause Gabrielle to have hurricane-force winds when it passes
over the Azores tonight or early Friday. Although the NHC intensity
prediction has been adjusted downward this cycle, the 12-h forecast
still shows Gabrielle at hurricane strength near the Azores.
Afterward, the updated forecast shows more rapid weakening of
the extratropical cyclone over the far eastern Atlantic.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the Azores.
The NHC will continue to issue advisories on Gabrielle as long as
these land-based warnings are in place, regardless of the system's
status as a tropical or post-tropical cyclone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the
islands of the Azores tonight into early Friday. Significant
hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores
even after the center passes. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 36.7N 35.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 37.7N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 39.3N 24.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 40.4N 19.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0000Z 39.6N 11.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 37.9N 8.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1200Z 35.5N 7.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
GABRIELLE PASSES OVER THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...
...SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 31.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

Gabrielle has quickly lost tropical characteristics today in a
highly sheared environment. Dry air infiltrating the circulation has
left the low-level center partially exposed, and the overall cloud
pattern has become more linear ahead of an approaching baroclinic
system. Since Gabrielle no longer has organized deep convection and
is beginning to interact with fronts, it is best designated as a
post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based
on earlier ASCAT data and the latest GFS and ECMWF wind fields.
Weather radar data from Flores Island in the Azores indicate showers
are spreading across the northwestern islands as conditions begin
to deteriorate.

The cyclone continues moving quickly eastward (080/26 kt) within
strong westerly mid-latitude flow. The center of Gabrielle will pass
quickly near or over the Azores later tonight and early Friday.
Gabrielle is forecast to gradually decelerate over the next few
days while eventually turning southeastward as a ridge builds to
the west over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the post-tropical
cyclone should pass near or over the coast of Portugal later this
weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast
with this update.

The global models continue to show some increase in Gabrielle's peak
winds tonight as the cyclone interacts with an approaching
baroclinic system and completes extratropical transition. The NHC
intensity forecast favors this solution and shows Gabrielle as a
65-kt post-tropical cyclone moving through the Azores early Friday.
Thereafter, steady weakening is forecast as the low becomes
vertically stacked and fills over the far eastern Atlantic. The
global models are in good agreement on this solution.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the
islands of the Azores later tonight and early Friday. Significant
hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores
even after the center passes.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 37.1N 31.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0600Z 38.3N 27.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 39.7N 21.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z 40.3N 16.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1800Z 40.0N 12.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 38.7N 10.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.9N 8.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 35.5N 7.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1200 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE AZORES WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM GMT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 30.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES AS GABRIELLE'S
CENTER APPROACHES...
...WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AZORES VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 29.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

A patch of deep convection has redeveloped well to the northeast of
Gabrielle's center, most likely along an occluded frontal boundary
that is forming in the storm's immediate vicinity. A 2330 UTC ASCAT
pass showed winds as high as 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant--
slightly lower than the ASCAT pass from 12 hours ago--and therefore
the current intensity is estimated to be 55 kt. Strong winds began
spreading across the central Azores a few hours ago, with
hurricane-force gusts being reported at some elevated sites on those
islands. Strong winds are expected to spread to the southeastern
Azores within the next couple of hours.

The current motion is east-northeastward, or 070 degrees at 25
kt. Gabrielle's center is forecast to move across the Azores over
the next several hours and then continue on a more-or-less eastward
track but at a slower speed for the next couple of days while
approaching the coast of Portugal. An even slower southeastward to
southward motion is expected in 3 to 4 days while the low decays
near southern Portugal and northern Morocco.

Gabrielle could re-intensify slightly today until extratropical
transition is completed, with the strongest winds shifting from the
southeastern quadrant to the northwestern quadrant. A gradual
decrease in winds is expected after 24 hours, and the NHC intensity
forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF solutions.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions,
with gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern
Azores this morning, with the strongest winds occurring at higher
elevations.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 37.8N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 39.0N 24.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 40.0N 19.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 40.2N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z 39.3N 11.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 37.5N 8.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.1N 7.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 34.2N 7.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE AZORES...
...STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 26.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ENE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

Gabrielle continues to produce a patch of convection to the
northeast of the center, which is most likely along a frontal
boundary in this area. The center is currently moving through the
central Azores where tropical-storm conditions and wind gusts to
hurricane-force have been reported. In addition, sustained
hurricane-force winds have been reported in the elevated
mountainous areas of Terceira and Sao Miguel Islands. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from the
previous advisory.

While the center has moved a little to the left of the previous
track during the past few hours, the overall motion remains
east-northeastward or 070/25 kt. Gabrielle should continue
east-northeastward for the next day or so with a decrease in
forward speed, and this motion should bring the center away from
the Azores today. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
eastward and southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal.
This should be followed by an even slower southeastward to
southward motion while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates
near southern Portugal and northern Morocco. The new forecast track
is shifted a bit to the north of the previous track based mainly on
the more northerly initial position.

Gabrielle is almost finished its extratropical transition, with
satellite imagery indicating a cold front forming to the southeast
and south of the center in addition to the frontal boundary to the
north. The global models suggest little change in strength for the
next 24 h, followed by a gradual weakening. The new intensity
forecast is based mainly on a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models,
and it now calls for the system to dissipate between 72-96 h.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.
This should occur sometime later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions, with
gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern Azores
this morning, with hurricane-force winds possible at higher
elevations.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the
central Azores should subside today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 39.1N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0600Z 40.7N 16.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1800Z 40.5N 12.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 39.0N 9.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1800Z 37.4N 8.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1200 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 24.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ENE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

...CENTER OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 22.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES




Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

Gabrielle is a storm-force extratropical cyclone with frontal
boundaries that extend east-northeastward and southwestward from the
cyclone. The center continues moving away from the Azores, and
winds have dropped below gale-force across the islands. Recent
ASCAT passes missed the center, but winds up to 43 kt were measured
by the instrument well away from the center in the southeast
quadrant. Global models show 10-meter winds up to 55 kt in their
fields at the current time, so the initial intensity will be held
at 55 kt.

Some intensification is possible this evening, and the 06Z GFS model
indicates a sting jet could briefly cause winds up to 70-75 kt in
the western semicircle in about 6 h from now. The NHC forecast
brings Gabrielle to 60 kt in 12 h, but doesn't necessarily account
for brief stronger winds that could occur between the current time
and the 12 h point. Global models are in good agreement on steady
weakening after hour 12, and the NHC intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It's possible that gale force winds
near 35 kt, with higher gusts, could affect portions of the west
coast of Portugal around early Sunday.

The current motion is quickly east-northeastward, or 065/27 kt. A
turn toward the east along with a decrease in forward speed is
expected in 12-24 h. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal. This should
be followed by an even slower southeastward to southward motion
while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates near southern
Portugal and northern Morocco. The forecast track has been shifted
slightly to the northeast, or left, of the previous NHC track,
closer to the latest simple and corrected consensus models.

This is the final advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Gabrielle. Future information on marine impacts can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future
information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found
in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at
https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Winds across the Azores will continue to subside this afternoon.

2. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the high terrain of the
central Azores should subside this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 40.0N 22.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen