NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I say, members who like to follow the tropics, should comment on this system even if it is going to the fishes. If you are an enthusiastic fan of tropical weather, no matter where it goes, you watch it and if you want to make comments about a possible strong hurricane,then come.

I rest my case. It has been a very entretaining thread to have comments and discussions and I am happy for the participation. Keep it up as Gabby may still have surprises.

[Europa non è lontana]

I have to say, even though extratropical transition is forecasted, it certainly looks like the 12z GFS, as well as the 00z and 06z Euro, show Gabrielle regaining some tropical characteristics as it approaches Iberia...

[Teban54]

Gabrielle at sunset

[ljmac75]

Wow, every hurricane so far this season has become at least a category 4 (yes I know there's only been two).

[StormWeather]

Gabrielle at sunset

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/D0Vzp1LR/cira-Band-2.png [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyxRGkvy/cira-Geo-Color.png [/url]

Ngl, but Gabrielle is looking top-tier at the moment. Looks like a 5 based on satellite imagery alone, but I don’t think it is. I would say if this organization holds, I would go 130 kts at 11

[aspen]

A little bit more stronger at final pass from NOAA2.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 132kt at 20:42z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 945.2mb at 20:47z

Didn’t get an eye drop from that but the E eyewall drop found 120 kt surface winds. Since Gabrielle’s eye has become warmer and better defined in the last 2-3 hours, I think it may be approaching 125-130 kt and 940-ish mbar now.

[Travorum]

A little bit more stronger at final pass from NOAA2.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 132kt at 20:42z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 945.2mb at 20:47z

Didn’t get an eye drop from that but the E eyewall drop found 120 kt surface winds. Since Gabrielle’s eye has become warmer and better defined in the last 2-3 hours, I think it may be approaching 125-130 kt and 940-ish mbar now.

CDO has cooled too, there's 2/3 to 3/4 of a W ring on Dvorak now.

[Teban54]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StatsWeather/status/1970252104217567740

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I hope everyone wondering why there was recon in a fish storm is satisfied with the answer! This was a huge miss by the models, the most of aggressive of which still underestimated the speed of RI. Understanding these storms is so important so that forecast misses like this don’t happen again. In this case it fortunately doesn’t matter but imagine a Cat 1 forecast turning into a Cat 4 landfall within 24 hours. Could have been so bad.

[StormWeather]

I hope everyone wondering why there was recon in a fish storm is satisfied with the answer! This was a huge miss by the models, the most of aggressive of which still underestimated the speed of RI. Understanding these storms is so important so that forecast misses like this don’t happen again. In this case it fortunately doesn’t matter but imagine a Cat 1 forecast turning into a Cat 4 landfall within 24 hours. Could have been so bad.

I wish we still had recon in storm, because im interested to see whether it’s reached 130 kts or more yet.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://i.imgur.com/jKkveZK.jpeg

OMG just saved this to my meme stash

[Hurricane2022]

Cool.

[AnnularCane]

I hope everyone wondering why there was recon in a fish storm is satisfied with the answer! This was a huge miss by the models, the most of aggressive of which still underestimated the speed of RI. Understanding these storms is so important so that forecast misses like this don’t happen again. In this case it fortunately doesn’t matter but imagine a Cat 1 forecast turning into a Cat 4 landfall within 24 hours. Could have been so bad.

I never even wondered about it, I just figured since she was in recon range... Considering how wonky models can be with intensity, I'm surprised forecast misses like that haven't happened more often.

[syfr]

What a metamorphosis in 36 hours!

Spectacular.

[Craters]

...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

Good call, Kevin!

[sasha_B]

07L GABRIELLE 250923 0000 32.1N 61.4W ATL 120 948

Intensity held at 120 kts / 948 hPa for the 0z best track point.

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2025092300, , BEST, 0, 321N, 614W, 120, 948, HU

[Buck]

A few more overperforming fish and we might catch up on ACE. Gabi has been fun to watch.

[weeniepatrol]

Sorry if repost