Tropical Wave east of the Leeward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[BobHarlem]

closest approach on 12z GFS


12z Canadian has a TS landfall in Wilmington, NC and the other wave passes over Bermuda, afterwards the storm goes back into the Atlantic then heads back towards florida, winding up near the northern Bahamas.

[ChrisH-UK]

The ECMWF has this one stalling off the coast of Florida and the passing over in to the Gulf. Along with all of the other areas looks like we could be getting a couple of storms landfalling in the US in the coming weeks.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over
the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week,
the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system
is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[LarryWx]

The ECMWF has this one stalling off the coast of Florida and the passing over in to the Gulf. Along with all of the other areas looks like we could be getting a couple of storms landfalling in the US in the coming weeks.

Hey Chris,
The brand new (12Z) Euro has this on 9/29 hit NC as a TD.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro develops this now, landfall near Topsail Beach, NC as a TD/TS


Other wave slams Bermuda as a 955mb hurricane.

[Teban54]

12z euro develops this now, landfall near Topsail Beach, NC as a TD/TS
https://i.imgur.com/HczTiYu.png

Other wave slams Bermuda as a 955mb hurricane.

I'm amazed it could develop on its own, given proximity to the MH (from the 30/80 AOI):

[TomballEd]

Posted on cherry thread as well.

Too close to each other? While the cherry looks better organized, the orange looks to be in a position to enhance shear on the cherry. Orange has farther to go to become a TC but it may stop the cherry from organizing all together.

[Sciencerocks]

[Weathertracker96]

Posted on cherry thread as well.

Too close to each other? While the cherry looks better organized, the orange looks to be in a position to enhance shear on the cherry. Orange has farther to go to become a TC but it may stop the cherry from organizing all together.

https://i.imgur.com/zHxZNe0.gif

I do wonder if models will show a different solution if this hurts the progress of the cherry system?
It seems the euro favors the cherry which causes the orange system to be weaker etc

[ScottNAtlanta]

Posted on cherry thread as well.

Too close to each other? While the cherry looks better organized, the orange looks to be in a position to enhance shear on the cherry. Orange has farther to go to become a TC but it may stop the cherry from organizing all together.

https://i.imgur.com/zHxZNe0.gif

The shear forecast from the Euro has much higher shear in the vicinity of Red while the Orange finds itself in much less shear and a more favourable environment, so to me the model's development of Red seems a little suspect

[Blown Away]

Nice little swirl w/o much convection near 17N/57W.

[floridasun]

this one see post after wed if get closer to bahamas and if models still usa risk from Florida to north Carolina

[chaser1]

I'll throw this hypothetical out there. The larger better organized wave near 17N & 45W begins to develop and due to its broad size, begins to impact a fujiwhara affect on this developing wave approaching the Leeward Islands. The counterclockwise flow of the larger/stronger system would then act like a rudder causing this disturbance around 55W, to track more westward then northwest for the near and mid-term. That further west track might result in a TS (or hurricane) to become a threat to the Greater Antilles or Bahamas before feeling a northward tug.

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs drops this wave (And the other one too), nothing to see.

[chaser1]

18z gfs drops this wave (And the other one too), nothing to see.

Happy Hour lives on!

[Weathertracker96]

I'll throw this hypothetical out there. The larger better organized wave near 17N & 45W begins to develop and due to its broad size, begins to impact a fujiwhara affect on this developing wave approaching the Leeward Islands. The counterclockwise flow of the larger/stronger system would then act like a rudder causing this disturbance around 55W, to track more westward then northwest for the near and mid-term. That further west track might result in a TS (or hurricane) to become a threat to the Greater Antilles or Bahamas before feeling a northward tug.

That would be something to watch if things evolve like that.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the
next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this
week, the system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system
is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[LarryWx]

18Z Euro has a 1001 TS headed NNW in the direction of NC at 30N, 75W at 144

[OuterBanker]

Hooray, OBX full pardon from the 18 z GFS after six runs of a landfall.
Also, the cat 4 in the middle of the GOM that was in the 12z GFS went poof.

Also interesting is that the GFS, CMC Euro, Euro AI and even the Navgem all have hurricanes over or near Bermuda.

The first system does appear to be headed to the Herbert Box. But I'll wait until some consolidation before I say all clear for the OBX.

[zzzh]

18Z AI models trended a lot stronger for this system (weaker for the other AOI).