NATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[LarryWx]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.09.2025

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 53.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2025 0 21.2N 53.0W 1007 31
1200UTC 19.09.2025 12 22.0N 55.0W 1008 32
0000UTC 20.09.2025 24 23.6N 57.0W 1009 32
1200UTC 20.09.2025 36 24.7N 58.8W 1009 32
0000UTC 21.09.2025 48 26.5N 60.2W 1010 34
1200UTC 21.09.2025 60 28.2N 60.8W 1009 41
0000UTC 22.09.2025 72 30.2N 61.7W 1006 46
1200UTC 22.09.2025 84 33.0N 61.7W 1002 44
0000UTC 23.09.2025 96 35.8N 59.1W 996 45
1200UTC 23.09.2025 108 38.1N 54.2W 985 51
0000UTC 24.09.2025 120 39.9N 47.4W 977 61
1200UTC 24.09.2025 132 41.4N 39.6W 971 67
0000UTC 25.09.2025 144 42.7N 32.6W 974 53
1200UTC 25.09.2025 156 44.9N 26.7W 978 46
0000UTC 26.09.2025 168 48.3N 21.8W 980 41

[kevin]

06z hurricane models. They indicate Gabrielle might be quite intense during its transition to a post-tropical storm.

HWRF = 953mb/105kt (during post-tropical transition), 964mb/88kt (before Bermuda passage)
HMON = 950mb/110kt (during post-tropical transition), 960mb/100 kt (before Bermuda passage)
HAFS-A = 960mb/81kt (during post-tropical transition), 971mb/74kt (before Bermuda passage)
HAFS-B = 968mb/84kt

[Nimbus]

Both GFS and Euro tracking Gabrielle just far enough east of Bermuda to keep the island out of the purple haze.
Not a very challenging 72 hour forecast today as the ULL to her west is weakening.

[kevin]

00z hurricane models. Most show an initial peak around +18/+27 hrs and then another stronger peak around +45/+60 hrs. The intensity estimate for the first peak is 85 - 110 kt and the secondary peak 104 - 115 kt. Pretty good chance Gabrielle will become the second MH in the Atlantic this season.

HWRF = 969 mb / 85 kt @21 hrs | 963 mb / 107 kt @51 hrs
HMON = 958 mb / 106 kt @18 hrs | 960 mb / 109 kt @24 hrs | 956 mb / 115 kt @60 hrs
HAFS-A = 962 mb / 107 kt @27 hrs | 963 mb / 106 kt @45 hrs
HAFS-B = 960 mb / 110 kt @27 hrs | 967 mb / 104 kt @60 hrs

[Teban54]

00z hurricane models. Most show an initial peak around +18/+27 hrs and then another stronger peak around +45/+60 hrs. The intensity estimate for the first peak is 85 - 110 kt and the secondary peak 104 - 115 kt. Pretty good chance Gabrielle will become the second MH in the Atlantic this season.

HWRF = 969 mb / 85 kt @21 hrs | 963 mb / 107 kt @51 hrs
HMON = 958 mb / 106 kt @18 hrs | 960 mb / 109 kt @24 hrs | 956 mb / 115 kt @60 hrs
HAFS-A = 962 mb / 107 kt @27 hrs | 963 mb / 106 kt @45 hrs
HAFS-B = 960 mb / 110 kt @27 hrs | 967 mb / 104 kt @60 hrs

Looks like Gabrielle has already overshoot these runs

[Pelicane]

The GFS actually has this make landfall in Portugal in a weakened, subtropical state. Still retains a bit of moisture though.

Apparently the 18z run had this landfall in France. Don't recall seeing that before.

[Europa non è lontana]

12z GFS and ICON both show Gabrielle landfalling on mainland Portugal with tropical characteristics at around +120. ICON has landfall over the major city of Porto with 60kt gusts and 40kt sustained, GFS with landfall over Peniche with 40kt sustained.