EPAC: NARDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2025091918, , BEST, 0, 120N, 960W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, SPAWNINVEST, ep782025 to ep972025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep972025.dat

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that an area of
low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. The system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends westward over
the southwestern Mexico offshore waters. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No development is expected
today while wind shear remains strong. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive along the path of
the system beginning late this weekend, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward at
5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

This one has good potential since its a wnw track.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a persistent but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next
couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
The system could produce some locally heavy rain along portions of
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Kingarabian]

Looks like this will be the next major hurricane. Could be a long tracker if we can get stronger ridging in the 5-10 day range.

[StormWeather]

Looks like this will be the next major hurricane. Could be a long tracker if we can get stronger ridging in the 5-10 day range.

Bring on the longtracker (as long as it doesn’t strike any land) and let’s rack up some more ACE.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico through Monday. For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Consensus from the spaghetti models is no threat to Mexico and will be a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form within the next day or so, while the system moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico through Monday. For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the
next day or so. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico, and locally heavy rainfall is possible along
portions of this coastline through Monday. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

[Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Recent satellite-derived winds
indicate that this system is producing near gale-force winds, with
a better defined low-level circulation. Environmental conditions
remain favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or
tonight. This system is forecast to move westward at 5 to 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico,
and locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of this
coastline through Monday. For additional information, including
storm warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Ntxw]

If it takes the southwest dip into lower lat/warmer waters vs north track could be cat 4+ type system. GFS and Euro is projecting so.

[cycloneye]

It would skip TD and strait to TS.

EP, 97, 2025092118, , BEST, 0, 144N, 993W, 35, 1006, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Naeda will be another great one to track in open waters as it will be a strong cane.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
300 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 99.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025
300 PM CST Sun Sep 21 2025

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area a couple of
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a
large area of deep convection. A recent scatterometer pass showed
a well-defined circulation, albeit a bit elongated, along with a
large area of 30-35 kt winds on the northern side. Thus, a tropical
storm has formed, and Narda's intensity is set to 35 kt, consistent
with the scatterometer winds and the 18Z TAFB classification of
T2.5.

Narda appears to be moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The storm
should turn west-northwestward by tomorrow and westward in a couple
of days with a gradual increase in forward speed due to a large
ridge over northwestern Mexico. The biggest difference in the
track guidance is related to how fast Narda moves. The NHC
forecast is on the quick side of the guidance, given the strength
of the ridge and following the lead of the corrected-consensus
guidance. None of the models bring tropical-storm-force winds near
Mexico at this time, so no watches seem to be needed.

The storm should be over warm waters with moderate northeasterly
shear for the next several days. The model guidance respond to
this environment by generally showing gradual intensification for
the next few days, followed by a leveling off as the storm passes
over marginally warm waters. While the models are in fairly good
agreement for an initial forecast, this shouldn't be considered too
confident because of the well-known predictability challenges of a
moderate-shear environment. The NHC forecast lies between the
model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.7N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.5N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 16.7N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

EPAC is remarkably on fire.

[cycloneye]

EPAC is remarkably on fire.

You know this basin a lot so I ask what intensity peak Narda will be? NHC has first peak a cat 2 85kt.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC is remarkably on fire.

You know this basin a lot so I ask what intensity peak Narda will be? NHC has first peak a cat 2 85kt.

Depending on the strength of that ridge we could see either a minimal major hurricane or a classic major hurricane. Generally a prolonged WSW/WNW motion over warm waters and low shear means at least major hurricane..