2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[AnnularCane]

Everyone forgets about poor Chantal.

I forgot about her, but I *did* remember the little lemon in March.
I still need to draw it lol

I remember Chantal. Forgot about the March lemon.

[LarryWx]

Everyone forgets about poor Chantal.

I forgot about her, but I *did* remember the little lemon in March.
I still need to draw it lol

I remember Chantal. Forgot about the March lemon.

Chantal, for those who forgot, in addition to several damaging tornadoes, lead to some of the highest 24 hour rainfall amounts in history for parts of C NC:

Record Amount: A station north of Pittsboro, NC, recorded 14.22 inches of rain.

Widespread Impact: Other areas in central North Carolina, including Chatham, Alamance, Durham, Orange, and Person counties, received 6 to 11 inches of rain.

Flash Flooding: The high rainfall totals in a short period caused rapid river rise and flash flooding, with some areas experiencing more than 10 inches of rain.

50-100 Year Event: The rainfall amounts were significant enough to be classified as a 50 to 100-year rain and flooding event for the affected regions.

[cycloneye]

Well, this stat tells all about this season.



 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1967707688923803947

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, this stat tells all about this season.

https://i.imgur.com/8SUqSlY.jpeg

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1967707688923803947

wow that's quite a dry spell. I'm still going with my original prediction of 2 storms this month. I think it's obvious we will get the first real soon, and I'm thinking the 2nd one early in the final week of September.

[cycloneye]

There is still a chance for a backloaded rest of season, but the probability from CPC is 20%.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the season can revive with the new aoi's.

[ConvergenceZone]

This has been a mystery to me. I've been trying to look online trying to find out why this year is such a one-off. In one sense the dopamine driven me wants a hurricane to track, but the other part of me is glad that we got a year off. I got so much done this summer . I keep glancing at the model pages thinking something will really change, but all I see is something that changes for awhile, but then reverts back to nothing once again. I've never seen anything like this before. I'm ready for Winter, as least I'll have some big winter storms to track

[WaveBreaking]

This has been a mystery to me. I've been trying to look online trying to find out why this year is such a one-off. In one sense the dopamine driven me wants a hurricane to track, but the other part of me is glad that we got a year off. I got so much done this summer . I keep glancing at the model pages thinking something will really change, but all I see is something that changes for awhile, but then reverts back to nothing once again. I've never seen anything like this before. I'm ready for Winter, as least I'll have some big winter storms to track

Yeah same here. I’m just glad we’re having a relatively mild season (excluding Erin of course) right after everything that happened last year. It was genuinely draining for me to follow 2024’s nonstop insanity especially after Helene formed.

[tolakram]

I'm not convinced it won't pickup in a few weeks, but globally everything is down so it might just be one of those years. I don't see anything strange, just unfortunate that seasonal forecasts still seem to be hit and miss.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not convinced it won't pickup in a few weeks, but globally everything is down so it might just be one of those years. I don't see anything strange, just unfortunate that seasonal forecasts still seem to be hit and miss.

I'm with ya on that Mark. I feel like I've went back and forth thinking it will pick up, but then another part of me just thinks as you said that it might just be one of those years.

[MetroMike]

Looks like the board has given up any hope of something interesting to track. There are ensemble models that show some moderate signals this Saturday morning but whatever. I feel sorry for some members of social media that rely on CONUS threats for income as so far they have been shut out for the most part.
It’s not officially over but the trend is your friend or fiend.

[LarryWx]

I feel sorry for some members of social media that rely on CONUS threats for income as so far they have been shut out for the most part.
It’s not officially over but the trend is your friend or fiend.

FRIEND. The lack of even the threat of casualties, misery, and destruction is a great thing obviously! The only way that’s guaranteed is to not have threats. Feeling sorry for those who make $ when we’re threatened with these? Not I nor the vast majority of people who are either potentially affected (me), know others who could be affected, or don’t want it just due to empathy for the potential suffering.

Just to remind folks, Chantal and Erin already had significant to major effects on parts of the Carolinas, but not even close to last year thank goodness.

Hoping we can get through the rest of the season with no major threats, but clearly it’s unfortunately still way too early to know as Oct and even Nov can still produce horrible beasts.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point, I am starting to think that we're going to need some serious action in October/November, or else the above average ACE predictions from earlier this year are going to bust.

This has been....a really odd year, to say the least. A developing -ENSO? Plus for Atlantic activity. Warm tropical Atlantic? Plus for Atlantic activity. Yet somehow, the main drivers that we rely on to determine how activity a given Atlantic season will be have been overridden by something far more mysterious.

I guess the question we need to ask is, what could this be? Is it the same (or similar) problem that plagued August of 2022? Or the problem that plagued 2024's late August-early September? Or 2013? Or is it something entirely different that we've never experienced before? I do think this season is going to have to be more deeply studied after it's over.

From an impact standpoint, it's awesome that we haven't had a destructive hurricane this season. After the devastating recent stretch of seasons, this is a truly welcome thing. But from a meteorological standpoint, it is indeed a bit head-scratching and, as some may put it, frustrating, that we don't have good answers. What is going on?

I will also add that Erin really defined this season as the meteorological wonder that it was. Several degrees of latitude south, and it could have really been a problem. But thankfully, that didn't happen, and we got to track it with awe and satisfaction that it avoided land.

I guess something I've learned from this year, at least so far, is that an early major hurricane, let alone Category 5, sometimes isn't an indicator of the season's future. I remember last year right after Beryl happened, quite a few people were expecting a doomsday hurricane season with 225+ ACE. But...that didn't exactly pan out. Same with this year. Erin looked like an indication that the season was prime to produce high levels of activity...but look where we are now.

Now, if this season somehow produces a monster in October or November, then perhaps a lot of folks will be eating crow. I guess "canceling a season" is like "crying wolf." It's not true over and over again....until the wolf actually does come and eat the sheep. Then I guess it's true. Does 2025 have a trick up its sleeve that we don't see yet....or will this year be the extremely rare case in which the "season cancelers" were actually correct? We will see!

[LarryWx]

At this point, I am starting to think that we're going to need some serious action in October/November, or else the above average ACE predictions from earlier this year are going to bust.

Based on past stats, the chances of getting just to the 30 year avg ACE of 122 are pretty low. But the jury is still out based especially on the recent years of 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2005, but also on 1894, 1893, and 1878. However, most of these very active Oct+ years were more active through Sept vs 2025’s prog.

[Category5Kaiju]

Personally I'm quite interested to see what October and November will produce. While it's definitely not something I'd expect by default, it's also intriguing to think back at -ENSO seasons such as 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2020. Back during those Septembers, who would've thought that a destructive Category 4 or higher hurricane would've formed during the late months? And, in the extreme case of 1932, a November Category 5 hurricane?

2025's story has been tame so far. But will it be like this the next 70 days?

[canes92]

Hopefully things stay quiet.

[ConvergenceZone]

Personally I'm quite interested to see what October and November will produce. While it's definitely not something I'd expect by default, it's also intriguing to think back at -ENSO seasons such as 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2020. Back during those Septembers, who would've thought that a destructive Category 4 or higher hurricane would've formed during the late months? And, in the extreme case of 1932, a November Category 5 hurricane?

2025's story has been tame so far. But will it be like this the next 70 days?

It may be just as likely to be just as quiet as it's been. It could just be one of those low activity years.

[LarryWx]

Personally I'm quite interested to see what October and November will produce. While it's definitely not something I'd expect by default, it's also intriguing to think back at -ENSO seasons such as 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2020. Back during those Septembers, who would've thought that a destructive Category 4 or higher hurricane would've formed during the late months? And, in the extreme case of 1932, a November Category 5 hurricane?

2025's story has been tame so far. But will it be like this the next 70 days?

As always, I’m also quite interested. I continue to fear what these late periods are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7!

The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow:

Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec:

Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE
2024: 78/84
2020: 106/75
2016: 59/80
2005: 171/75
1969: 93/57
1963: 49/63
1961: 134/55
1950: 157/54
1932: 87/82
1894: 59/76
1893: 159/73
1887: 123/59
1878: 84/97

Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows:

- 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878)
- 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932)
- 1 NN (1894)
- 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963)

So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active.

Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do.

What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

[Category5Kaiju]

Personally I'm quite interested to see what October and November will produce. While it's definitely not something I'd expect by default, it's also intriguing to think back at -ENSO seasons such as 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2020. Back during those Septembers, who would've thought that a destructive Category 4 or higher hurricane would've formed during the late months? And, in the extreme case of 1932, a November Category 5 hurricane?

2025's story has been tame so far. But will it be like this the next 70 days?

It may be just as likely to be just as quiet as it's been. It could just be one of those low activity years.

True, though unless something truly extraordinary happens (like a 2007/2021-style event), I'd imagine that the still-warm deep tropics, the -ENSO pattern (which would only progressively get stronger as we enter fall) that would theoretically reduce wind shear, and the general O/N climatology pattern of seeing CAG activity or sleeper waves that turn into something in the W. Atlantic would also serve to help produce activity in some fashion before the finish line.

In fact, perhaps what's going on in the WPAC may be interesting. There were theories going on with the idea that whatever hostile background conditions were plaguing the Atlantic somehow were also affecting the WPAC, with its dearth of powerful typhoons even in August and early September. Now that the WPAC managed to produce 2 super typhoons, maybe that may be a sign that such conditions are improving, or at least going to, in the future?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Personally I'm quite interested to see what October and November will produce. While it's definitely not something I'd expect by default, it's also intriguing to think back at -ENSO seasons such as 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2020. Back during those Septembers, who would've thought that a destructive Category 4 or higher hurricane would've formed during the late months? And, in the extreme case of 1932, a November Category 5 hurricane?

2025's story has been tame so far. But will it be like this the next 70 days?

As always, I’m also quite interested. I continue to fear what these late periods are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7!

The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow:

Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec:

Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE
2024: 78/84
2020: 106/75
2016: 59/80
2005: 171/75
1969: 93/57
1963: 49/63
1961: 134/55
1950: 157/54
1932: 87/82
1894: 59/76
1893: 159/73
1887: 123/59
1878: 84/97

Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows:

- 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878)
- 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932)
- 1 NN (1894)
- 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963)

So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active.

Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do.

What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

Atm things seem to be ramping up a bit more in the Atlantic and Wpac which have been very quiet. I don't think the Atlantic will have a super active ending, but late September into November I think will be more active than what we've seen, kind of like a lesser version of last year.