EPAC: INVEST 96E - Discussion (0/0)

[Subtrop]

EP, 96, 2025091606, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1032W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, ep762025 to ep962025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep962025.dat

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico have become more concentrated over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite derived winds depict that the
low is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the circulation appears to be becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the circulation appears to be becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or two, the system is forecast to
encounter progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a
drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which should inhibit any
additional development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms to the west of the surface center.
Although a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
day or two, the system is forecast to encounter progressively
cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier, stable airmass
over the weekend, which should inhibit any additional development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a
tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or
so, the system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters
and a drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Overnight satellite-derived surface wind data indicated that the
system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity is producing
winds below gale force and remains displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure. This system, however, could still become a
short-lived tropical depression before it encounters progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, stable airmass over
the weekend, which will inhibit any further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
is producing showers and thunderstorms displaced well to the west of
the surface center. Although the likelihood of further development
is decreasing, the system could still become a short-lived tropical
depression before it encounters increasingly hostile environmental
conditions and cooler waters.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[zhukm29]

I think there is a good argument this is a TD.

[cycloneye]

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity displaced well to
the southwest of the surface center. The system is expected to
encounter more hostile environmental conditions and cooler waters
this weekend while moving slowly west-northwestward, and further
development appears unlikely.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[StormWeather]

Another bust Next!

[cycloneye]

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward into a more hostile environment
later today and tonight, where cooler waters and a drier airmass
will inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Teban54]

The 91L plague is starting to infect other basins?