2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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LarryWx
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1041 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 15, 2025 12:58 am

The 0Z UKMET has two other TCs that develop in the E MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.5N 34.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 13.5N 34.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 13.8N 37.3W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 14.3N 40.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 15.0N 42.9W 1011 25
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 16.0N 46.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 16.7N 49.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 17.7N 51.8W 1011 27


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 14.7N 34.9W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 14.7N 37.3W 1009 36
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1042 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 15, 2025 6:19 am

LarryWx wrote:The 0Z UKMET has two other TCs that develop in the E MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.5N 34.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 13.5N 34.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 13.8N 37.3W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 14.3N 40.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 15.0N 42.9W 1011 25
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 16.0N 46.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 16.7N 49.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 17.7N 51.8W 1011 27


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 14.7N 34.9W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 14.7N 37.3W 1009 36


GFS almost into October and not showing much, just constant low pressures moving off the SE CONUS one after another. Seems like there was much talk early on about a "Pattern setting up for CONUS/West landfalls" and the reality is nothing even close. Nice to get a break, for now, but worry something has to move all that SST heat out of the Caribbean/GOA.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1043 Postby Steve H. » Mon Sep 15, 2025 6:58 am

Yes, there is a large eastern seaboard troughing going on and that should be present throughout this week. Storm deflection shield. But a lot of tropical moisture will lift northward this week. The Caribbean may be the focus during the upcoming month.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1044 Postby TomballEd » Mon Sep 15, 2025 10:44 am

6Z Euro ensemble suggests 92L will have a little brother following.
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1045 Postby sasha_B » Mon Sep 15, 2025 11:24 am

TomballEd wrote:6Z Euro ensemble suggests 92L will have a little brother following.


Fwiw, the Google DeepMind ensembles have also been showing some indication of at least one MDR system following closely behind 92L (developing somewhere in the 6～10-day timeframe).
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1046 Postby Stormlover70 » Mon Sep 15, 2025 3:19 pm

Gulf of Mexico is the place to watch in my opinion
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Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1047 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 15, 2025 3:28 pm

12Z UKMET: again has a followup MDR TC (0Z actually had 2 followups):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 37.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2025 156 15.9N 37.2W 1012 31
1200UTC 22.09.2025 168 16.7N 39.4W 1011 32
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