What will you ride out?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K

At what catagory do you decide to pack up and evacuate??

CAT 1
4
5%
CAT 2
22
27%
CAT 3
31
38%
CAT 4
24
30%
 
Total votes: 81

Message
Author
chadtm80

What will you ride out?

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Feb 17, 2003 9:50 pm

At what catagory do you decide to pack up and evacuate??
0 likes   

VanceWxMan

#2 Postby VanceWxMan » Mon Feb 17, 2003 9:52 pm

I can handle a tornado but with a hurricane due to the extreme backing winds MANY tornados can spawn so I would rather just roll on any sign of a Hurricane. However I may ride a Cat 1 out but nothiing larger (call me a wuss if you want)

Aaron
0 likes   

Rob-TheStormChaser

#3 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Mon Feb 17, 2003 10:01 pm

lol While I've never been in anything like a Cat 1 or higher..I have seen a few come up this way...like Hurricane Bob...in 1991..I was just out of the War and home and starting college and we got slammed! I'd love to be in a Cat 4 or 5 ONLY if I was encased in a shelter that wouldnt collapse on me! I would absolutely freak, but would be great video and audio. I just missed Hugo in 89 bye a mere few miles....seems like the weather I'm always lookjing for never is around, but when you least expect it....its like getting hit by a bolt out of the blue! (3 times in my case...lol ow!)
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#4 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 17, 2003 10:06 pm

I rode out Hurricane Hugo in 1989 ... and it was an awesome experience, but also the scariest in regards to hurricanes ...

My Hurricane Hugo experience in some detail

I also decided to stay with Hurricane Floyd in 1999, because of the evacuation process - 12 hours from CHS to CAE ... nada...I wasn't getting stuck in that traffic ...



[/url]
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 17, 2003 10:11 pm

I definitly after my experiences I can see a cat 1 cane but after that no way I will ride cat 2 and higher.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Rob-TheStormChaser

#6 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Mon Feb 17, 2003 10:18 pm

Is it me or does anyone here think and know that some of the biggest and strongest landfalling hurricanes.....hit at night. It just dawned on me thinking about all the stories, reports etc and many come at night...the worst possible times since you cannot see anything and then all the power goes and you are just staring at nothing but black listening to walls whistling. Thats got to be a harrowing experience in my book!
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Stay through a 4

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Feb 18, 2003 10:20 pm

I have plans to remain up through a cat 4. Those were the same plans that I had during Hurricane Michelle. However, for 5's, its off to Orlando or Jacksonville for me
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Since I am 50 mi inland...

#8 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Feb 19, 2003 1:30 am

I plan to stay for up to a low CAT 4 since the winds here would probably be diminished to a Cat2-3 range(still nothing to sneeze at!!!) One major consideration also would be rainfall expected and forward speed of the storm. Also since I live in huge metropolitan area(about 100 mi across e-w)landfall location comes into play. I have seen almost no effect from a Hurricane that came in between Houston and Beaumont.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

Rainband

#9 Postby Rainband » Wed Feb 19, 2003 9:48 am

I would leave at cat2 because of the stormsurge!! I would love to hang out and watch a 4 or 5 but my house would float away...
0 likes   

OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#10 Postby OtherHD » Wed Feb 19, 2003 12:51 pm

It all depends on what the parents say. My guess is that we would stay through a Cat 2, but anything higher and we're out.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#11 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 24, 2003 8:46 pm

Rob-TheStormChaser wrote:Is it me or does anyone here think and know that some of the biggest and strongest landfalling hurricanes.....hit at night. It just dawned on me thinking about all the stories, reports etc and many come at night...the worst possible times since you cannot see anything and then all the power goes and you are just staring at nothing but black listening to walls whistling. Thats got to be a harrowing experience in my book!


It's not just you, Rob..

Hugo hit at midnight ... Andrew hit about 4:20 am ... Camille, I believe, hit during the night ... Hurricane Fran hit right about nightfall ...Hurricane Floyd, hit during the night ... shall I go on?

Good point, Rob.
0 likes   

User avatar
isobar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2002
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:05 am
Location: Louisville, KY

#12 Postby isobar » Mon Feb 24, 2003 10:05 pm

The biggie (Labor Day 1935) passed over the Keys between 9-10 pm.

I don't get to formally vote since I no longer live in FL. But part of the problem with this whole process is that when the decision to evac is made, the cane is well offshore. Look how often intensification or weakening takes place prior to landfall, not to mention how long it takes to evac a city. Traffic is usually backed up for hours with no rooms available anywhere. Not an easy answer.

I bet anyone who's been through one has a pretty good idea where they stand. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 69
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:

#13 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Feb 24, 2003 11:23 pm

I'm about 10 ft above sealevel and only 6 blocks or so from the GOM. A mid to strong Cat2 and we'll move further away from the coast to my wife's parents house. With the evac routes out of Pinellas County, one major road and three bridges, by the time they announce evacs it's too late.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#14 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Feb 27, 2003 12:14 am

isobar wrote:The biggie (Labor Day 1935) passed over the Keys between 9-10 pm.

I don't get to formally vote since I no longer live in FL. But part of the problem with this whole process is that when the decision to evac is made, the cane is well offshore. Look how often intensification or weakening takes place prior to landfall, not to mention how long it takes to evac a city. Traffic is usually backed up for hours with no rooms available anywhere. Not an easy answer.

I bet anyone who's been through one has a pretty good idea where they stand. :)


You got that right!! My parents went through Opal. Long story short, for the first time since we moved to the Gulf Coast Dad decided it was time to get o ut of town when Opal went to Cat5. They were on the road for 2.5 hours and went like four miles. It was starting to get nasty and Dad turned around and went home. They came through it all fine considering a tornado went right up their street. Their biggest loss was the sailboat which had a 35 ft cabin cruiser sitting on top of it when they could get to the marina(15 mi inland!).
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
MScoast
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1014
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 9:23 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS
Contact:

#15 Postby MScoast » Thu Feb 27, 2003 12:28 am

I believe I would get out if it was over a cat 2. When Georges hit it scared me because I wasn't sure how I would protect my children if something were to happen to my house. Now, if it were just me and the hubby, I would ride it out! Always wanted to chase hurricanes down and be right in the middle of the action. Might just do that someday when the kids are grown. Yeah, I might be crazy, but I love the rush I get when a hurricane approaches.
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#16 Postby wx247 » Thu Feb 27, 2003 11:54 am

I guess I am a wuss being from the heartland at all...not knowing what to expect...once it was upgraded to a hurricane I would leave wherever I was and get farther inland.

Garrett :multi:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Southernmost Weather
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Feb 11, 2003 11:54 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#17 Postby Southernmost Weather » Sat Mar 01, 2003 11:17 pm

I'd consider leaving if a Cat 5 storm were approaching me in the Keys. I made it through numerous tropical storms and Georges which was a high Cat 2-low Cat 3. Been through much worse. Hurricanes are a piece of cake compared to getting shot at in the jungle!
0 likes   

User avatar
StormCrazyIowan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6599
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Feb 11, 2003 8:13 pm
Location: Quad Cities, IA
Contact:

#18 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Tue Mar 04, 2003 9:54 pm

I have never been in a cane, but I think I would make it to a Cat 2, who knows for sure until you're in the situation!
0 likes   

User avatar
Amanzi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4883
Age: 48
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:12 pm
Location: Epsom,UK

#19 Postby Amanzi » Tue Mar 04, 2003 11:01 pm

I think if it were anything above a 2 I would leave. I have only experienced (ts Gabby) but that was bad enough for me. The green sky outside was enough to scare the daylights out of me. I really got scared when the whole pine forest in my back yard was blowing horizontally. The sound of the non stop wind is the worst I think. The most amazing thing was when the center of circulation came over and it got quiet for about 15min and the next thing wham the trees were going the other way.......LOADS of fun. (I was drinking Jack on the rocks at 3 in the morning just to give myself something to do !)
0 likes   

JetMaxx

#20 Postby JetMaxx » Thu Mar 06, 2003 1:15 pm

I'd never try to ride out a hurricane if I lived on low ground near the immediate coast or on a barrier island.

Hurricanes are too unpredictable. There have been many historical instances in which a hurricane literally "blew up" as it neared the US coastline. We've been extremely fortunate in recent decades that when this has occurred, it's either been along relatively unpopulated coastline (Hugo); an Opal-like situation where the hurricane weakened as it made landfall (still as a major, destructive hurricane, but not nearly as bad as possible); or from a tropical storm to cat 2....not a cat-1 to cat-4 :eek:

Yes, hurricane Andrew did hit at near peak intensity while intensifying rapidly--but Andrew was already a very powerful hurricane east of the Bahamas, so people were aware. Andrew weakened from cat-5 to cat-4 then back to cat-5 (per NHC re-analysis). That's far different than from cat-1 to cat-4 or cat-2 to cat-5 in the last 24 hours before landfall.

In early September 1935, the "Labor Day hurricane" was only a 60-70 mph tropical storm when it crossed over Andros Island in the Bahamas. It's doubtful IMO it had ever been a hurricane to that point. In the ensuing 36 hours between Andros Island and the Florida Keys, this storm literally exploded over the Florida Straits....IMHO sustained winds were at least 190-200 mph, and gusts may have exceeded 230 mph (like a F4 tornado!). This hurricane killed over 400 people in a very sparsely populated area.

Many don't realize this violent hurricane also raked the west coast of Florida...the barrier islands from Cape Sable and Marco Island NNW to Clearwater Beach. Winds were likely well over 100 mph (cat-3..maybe cat-4) on the barier islands such as Sanibel-Captiva and Longboat Key. A repeat of this type hurricane in 2003....deepening rapidly overnight from cat-1 to cat-4/5 while approaching
the vunerable Florida Keys or highly populated Florida west coast will IMO be a catastrophe. Even from cat-1 to cat-3 would be a major disaster.

Never underestimate the power or unpredictability of a hurricane. Sometimes a minimal hurricane can become major very quickly over 84°+ sst's. You don't want to be sitting in your home or condo on the open coast or offshore barrier island in the path when it does.

------
PW
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DESTRUCTION5, HurricaneFan, wwizard and 110 guests