NATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion (50/90)

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2025091512, , BEST, 0, 119N, 383W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 215, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al742025 to al922025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922025.dat

Thread at Talking Tropics that was made for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124953

[cycloneye]

I say, members who like to follow the tropics, should comment on this system even if it is going to the fishes. If you are an enthusiastic fan of tropical weather, no matter where it goes, you watch it and if you want to make comments about a possible strong hurricane,then come.

[cycloneye]

[sasha_B]

I look forward to seeing how quickly 92L manages to consolidate. Model guidance is so-so on the disturbance's development in the short-term, but rather bullish when it comes to its long-term intensity prospects. I have a feeling that this will be one to watch for those who enjoy storm-tracking as much as I do (...though after what happened with 91L, not sure if I can trust my intuition... )

[AnnularCane]

Part of me is waiting for this one to get past 60/90 (91L's peak).

[TomballEd]

I say, members who like to follow the tropics, should comment on this system even if it is going to the fishes. If you are an enthusiastic fan of tropical weather, no matter where it goes, you watch it and if you want to make comments about a possible strong hurricane,then come.

6Z Euro ensemble has a 948 mb low, along with quite a few hurricanes at 6 days. Bermuda is not in the clear. I went to Bermuda in 1982 with some rich classmates because my Dad could get non-rev tickets as an airline employee. Nice people.

If this Erin trends westward close enough to at least affect the Carolinas (and high surf the entire coast) than it will be of interest to the mainland US. 948 low would have an impressive satellite signature.

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

There appears to be an established albeit broad circulation. Could take some time to consolidate. Maintaining strong convection near some centerpoint seems to be this season's Achilles heel

[Travorum]

Stitched METOP-B/C pass from 5 hours ago got most of the wave, it shows a broad circulation at the surface. I marked the NHC's fix with the red X, and most of the convection is displaced north up where the stronger wind barbs are:



It's still in a nascent stage of development, and is not going to get much further until convection over the center can actually persist.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed roughly midway between the
Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system has
become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move
through a favorable environment for further development. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the
middle to latter part of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam

[bahamaswx]

Ah, finally something to watch!

[Travorum]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed roughly midway between the
Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa. This system has
become better organized since yesterday and is expected to move
through a favorable environment for further development. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the
middle to latter part of this week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam

We're just 10% off from 91L levels of confidence

[TomballEd]

There appears to be an established albeit broad circulation. Could take some time to consolidate. Maintaining strong convection near some centerpoint seems to be this season's Achilles heel

Looking at TT floater, there is a circulation although it seems elliptical E-W. That could mean two low level centers within the broader ellipse.

[Teban54]

This already looks much better than when 91L was 60/90.

[tropicwatch]

This already looks much better than when 91L was 60/90.

https://i.postimg.cc/HnLMJTJ8/goes19-truecolor-92-L-202509151305.gif

Looks like a decent outflow starting.

[Pelicane]

This already looks much better than when 91L was 60/90.

https://i.postimg.cc/HnLMJTJ8/goes19-truecolor-92-L-202509151305.gif

Unlike 91L this also has a ton of moisture to work with.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2025091518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 398W, 25, 1010, DB

[Woofde]

This already looks much better than when 91L was 60/90.

It's broad, but the circulation looks healthier for sure. It has "the look" in my subjective opinion. Hopefully no Bermuda hit, and we just receive some nice waves for surfing over here on the East Coast.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1967700130712391727

[MGC]

92L starting to get that tumbleweed look. Just needs some convection to tighten up the circulation. Could be a fairly intense TC, lets hope it stays a fish like the models are thinking......MGC