Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)

[floridasun]

nhc have this nw after moving wnw let see that change

[mitchell]

nhc have this nw after moving wnw let see that change

When the NHC advisory says: "a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week
while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph"

I don't think that means first WNW, then NW
It just means a heading somewhere between WNW and NW without any sequence implied.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: TS in middle of ocean again

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.4N 45.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 96 16.4N 45.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 108 17.6N 47.7W 1005 45
1200UTC 18.09.2025 120 19.7N 49.9W 1006 44
0000UTC 19.09.2025 132 20.6N 51.6W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.09.2025 144 21.4N 53.0W 1005 36
0000UTC 20.09.2025 156 22.5N 53.5W 1004 46
1200UTC 20.09.2025 168 22.9N 55.4W 1002 45

[Pelicane]

Euro brings this over Bermuda

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, some gradual organization is possible thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter
part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Kazmit]

Definitely a stronger signal from all models today. Consensus is slow development at first, remaining a TD/weak TS until north of the leewards. Conditions look better there— the GFS and Euro both have a MH recurving. Bermuda possibly in play.

[TomballEd]

GFS and Euro both suggest the next system will not become strong until it reaches the subtropics.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

0z Euro directly hits Bermuda at 947 mbar. That's probably high Cat 3.

[LarryWx]

12Z:
-JMA has this as a TD at 48 and a TS at 72. This is stronger than the two prior 12Z runs that each had it as only a TD.

-**Edit: Euro has a MH passing just SE of Bermuda

-UKMET again has this as a TS. This is a bit further W than recent runs but it’s still aiming a bit E of Bermuda as of 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.4N 47.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 72 16.4N 47.4W 1006 40
0000UTC 18.09.2025 84 17.7N 48.8W 1006 42
1200UTC 18.09.2025 96 19.5N 52.1W 1006 44
0000UTC 19.09.2025 108 20.6N 54.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.09.2025 120 22.8N 55.1W 1006 44
0000UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 57.0W 1005 43
1200UTC 20.09.2025 144 25.1N 57.7W 1003 46
0000UTC 21.09.2025 156 26.3N 58.6W 1001 49
1200UTC 21.09.2025 168 28.3N 59.3W 999 48

[StormWeather]

20/70 now

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

[Nimbus]

Still a broad area of low pressure near the CV islands circulation center expected to close off in a couple days.
We don't know that latitude they will call it yet but the models haven't any tracks through the Caribbean Hebert box so far. Whats everybody's Bermuda wish cast?

[TomballEd]

Still a broad area of low pressure near the CV islands circulation center expected to close off in a couple days.
We don't know that latitude they will call it yet but the models haven't any tracks through the Caribbean Hebert box so far. Whats everybody's Bermuda wish cast?

I'm still a little Lucy and the football after the last few invests, but 100 miles nearest approach (misses east) to Bermuda at 950 mb. Low level vort is S of the deepest convection.

[Kazmit]

12z Euro gets it down to an insane 928mb on its way out. Fiona of the central Atlantic.

[TomballEd]

Euro weeklies like it.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z Euro gets it down to an insane 928mb on its way out. Fiona of the central Atlantic.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JNSCqvC/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-eatl-70.png

GFS and CMC aren't quite as aggressive but they do show this blowing up in the subtropics eventually as well.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day
or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci/Pasch

[Pelicane]

GEFS shifted quite a bit SW. A lot of Jouquin like U tracks.

[cycloneye]

Still some work to do in the organization as there are two spins, one north and the other more south.

[LarryWx]

If this fails to become a TD……..