EPAC: MARIO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

GFS has this combining with another system, briefly spinning up again.

[AJC3]

Aaaaand this thing already game over’ed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVQ_JHmvhCM



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=BVQ_JHmvhCM

[CrazyC83]

10/40 that a 1-up mushroom could be found.

1. South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Subtrop]

South of Baja California Peninsula (Ex-Mario):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized with
the the remnants of Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
Baja California Peninsula. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated the circulation had become better defined. If the ongoing
deep convection persists, Mario is likely to become a tropical
cyclone again, and advisories may be re-initiated as soon as later
this morning as the system moves slowly westward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

The comeback.

EP, 13, 2025091412, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1100W, 35, 1004, TS

[CrazyC83]

Mario found one of these in the ocean.



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=o3Tlv7h9I3Y

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both
coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now
just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data
from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center
had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the
improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since
that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a
tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was
fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is
interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south.
However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior
circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and
the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the
same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35
kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt,
a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure
observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just
to the northwest of the tropical storm.

Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at
285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several
days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered
over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow
tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4
days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the
guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under
10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of
mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36
hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far
off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a
very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also
increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken
quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a
shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall
guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest
HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like Mario's 1-up could bring us some rain to the L.A area.

[Hurricane2022]

Mario seems to be doing his best to make up for his lost time. I think he might be able to briefly pinch hurricane status before it's game over.

[CaliforniaResident]

Mario seems to be doing his best to make up for his lost time. I think he might be able to briefly pinch hurricane status before it's game over.

How would that affect his track? I want his remnants to give us some rain in Southern California.

[Hurricane2022]

Mario seems to be doing his best to make up for his lost time. I think he might be able to briefly pinch hurricane status before it's game over.

How would that affect his track? I want his remnants to give us some rain in Southern California.

Mario isn't a large storm but maybe he can bring some good moisture for SCal if it manages to become stronger.

[CaliforniaResident]

Mario seems to be doing his best to make up for his lost time. I think he might be able to briefly pinch hurricane status before it's game over.

How would that affect his track? I want his remnants to give us some rain in Southern California.

Mario isn't a large storm but maybe he can bring some good moisture for SCal if it manages to become stronger.

It's also about the steering direction and how his remnants shred when he dissipates.

[Kingarabian]

Looking a lot better but shear is still hitting it pretty good.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 110.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

A large, cold convective burst formed over the center of Mario
around 13Z this morning and subsequently expanded, and the burst has
persisted since that time. A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed several
34-38 kt vectors within 30 miles of Mario's center. The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt
from SAB, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in
the 40-45 kt range. Winds at Socorro Island, located less than 30 n
mi west-southwest of the center, are up to 20 kt gusting to 29 kt,
with a 1006 mb pressure. The initial intensity is increased to 40
kt for this advisory.

The aforementioned ASCAT pass and surface observations from Socorro
Island have been helpful at estimating the initial position of
Mario, which is slightly to the east of the previous NHC forecast.
The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be slowly toward
the west-northwest at 300/6 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer
ridging centered over Mexico. The GFS and Google DeepMind models
are on the right, or north side of the guidance envelope, whereas
the ECMWF and HCCA lie on the left or southern side of the guidance.
The latest NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the right, or east,
of the previous official forecast, fairly close to a blend of the
latest HCCA and TVCE models.

Mario will continue to be in a favorable environment for
strengthening for another 24-30 hours, with low shear under 10 kt,
warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of mid-level moisture. By
hour 30, the sea-surface temperatures will be below 27C and then
below 26C by hour 36. Around the same time, southwesterly shear
will begin increasing while the mid-level moisture and instability
plummet. These conditions favor the commencement of weakening on
Monday night. All model guidance, including the latest hi-res
hurricane models, do not show more than about 10 kt of additional
strengthening. In fact, the latest intensity forecast is at the
high end of the model guidance envelope through 24 h. Given the
favorable environment for the next 24 h, a higher peak intensity in
the 55-60 kt range should not be ruled out. By 36 h, the NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one, which is closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone should become a
remnant low in 48-60 h and dissipate just beyond 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

...MARIO MAINTAINING INTENSITY WHILE PASSING NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND..


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 111.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

The overall organization of Mario has been relatively steady through
the afternoon and evening. Wind observations from Socorro Island
indicate that the center of the tropical storm is passing north of
the island. Recent satellite imagery suggests easterly wind shear
has been tilting Mario's vortex and displacing deep convection to
the west of the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates of
3.0/45 kt from TAFB, 2.5/35 kt from SAB, and observed winds on
Socorro Islands support maintaining the initial intensity of Mario
at 40 kt for this advisory. The data from Socorro Island, which was
within 30 n mi of the center, emphasize Mario's small size, with
reported sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 27 kt since the last
advisory.

The initial position proved difficult to analyze, however the data
from Socorro Island have helped to pin down the location of the
low-level center, which matches the previous forecast track. The
cyclone is moving slightly faster to the west-northwest at 295/8 kt.
This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario
is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The
track forecast is largely the same as the previous one through the
next 36 hrs, then adjusted slightly east in line with the latest
consensus aids.

Mario is still forecast to slightly intensify over the next 24
hours, as it moves through an environment of warm sea surface
temperatures, plentiful mid-level moisture, and low shear. The
earlier bout of easterly shear may already be subsiding, as a new
convective burst begins closer to the cyclone's low-level center.
The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, in agreement
with the consensus aids. Beyond 24 hours, Mario will cross the 26C
isotherm, southwesterly wind shear will increase, and mid-level
moisture will diminish. This unfavorable environment should cause
Mario to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low
by 60 hours, with dissipation by around 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.2N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM
SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 112.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES





Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

The satellite presentation of Mario has improved since the previous
advisory, with a burst of deep convection and very cold cloud tops
persisting over the low-level center. Upper-level outflow appears
well established in all quadrants, and more defined curved banding
is developing on the northern side of the convective burst.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and
2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
have ranged from 40 to 60 kt and have been trending upward. A blend
of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance,
supports raising the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 10 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple
of days as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. Forward speed should
decrease after 48 h as Mario weakens and becomes more influenced by
the low-level flow. The forecast track is close to the previous one
through 24 h, then shifts slightly eastward thereafter to better
match the consensus guidance. The track is closest to the GDMI aid,
which lies between the consensus and the prior forecast.

Mario will remain in a moist, low-shear environment over warm waters
for the next 12 h, which should allow for some additional
strengthening. Thereafter, the cyclone will move near the 26C
isotherm and encounter increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind
shear, initiating a weakening trend. Steady weakening is then
expected as Mario moves over cooler waters and into stronger shear.
The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 h,
with dissipation likely by 96 h. The official intensity forecast is
near the upper end of the guidance through 24 h, then trends toward
the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.4N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM
SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 113.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES



Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

Satellite images show that Mario has changed little since the
previous advisory, though recently the deep convection has been
bursting near the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
remain near 45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS generally
a little higher. Thus, the current intensity will remain 50 kt for
this advisory.

Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 300 degrees, at 10 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The biggest
question is what happens to the remnants of Mario in a few days,
with the models in poor agreement on whether it turns more to the
north, like the GFS, or towards the west, like the HWRF or GDMI.
For now, the official forecast will stay closer to the westernmost
model cluster and assume the weak cyclone doesn't feel stronger
mid-level southerly flow. The new forecast is a touch to the
right of the previous one.

The storm has a limited window for any strengthening within light
shear conditions and warm waters. However, there are plenty of
stable stratocumulus clouds on satellite just northwest of the
circulation, suggesting it doesn't have much time left for
intensification. By Tuesday, Mario should begin to weaken as it
crosses over much cooler waters with higher shear. Mario should
lose all deep convection after 36h and become a remnant low by 48h.
The new NHC forecast prediction is slightly decreased from the last
one and ends up pretty close to the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam

[sasha_B]

One thing I noticed about the discrepancy between objective and subjective satellite fixes for TS Mario - T4.0 and T3.0 respectively, with objective estimates suggesting a near-hurricane-strength system and subjective estimates indicating a moderate TS - is that the discrepancy seems to arise from a difference in the cloud pattern identified on the 12z fix from OSPO:

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION. MET
IS 2.5. PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE AN ADJUSTMENT TO
THE MET WAS MADE.

...which I think clears up why there's such a substantial gap: the automated system continues to identify a CDO pattern & gradual intensification over the past 9 hours, while the subjective estimate recognises a 'central cold cover' that would indicate stable intensity / arrested development instead.