2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1965764862598160735

[LarryWx]

0Z 9/10/25 UKMET: TS moving WNW in middle of MDR likely destined to later recurve safely from at least the US

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.5N 29.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2025 108 11.5N 29.5W 1010 28
0000UTC 15.09.2025 120 12.0N 33.3W 1009 28
1200UTC 15.09.2025 132 12.8N 36.4W 1008 28
0000UTC 16.09.2025 144 13.6N 39.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 16.09.2025 156 14.5N 41.5W 1005 36
0000UTC 17.09.2025 168 15.3N 43.4W 1005 42

This poor blind squirrel (UK model) will eventually find its buried nut

Yes, indeed. But in all fairness, it hasn’t been the most blind overall.

[LAF92]

The 06z GFS back showing an organized system emerging from the BOC. It sure loves the CAG season

[TomballEd]

The 06z GFS back showing an organized system emerging from the BOC. It sure loves the CAG season

Just the fact that the GFS ensembles are also suggesting EPac action suggests even if true, a CAG system will develop since the EPac gets more systems than the Atlantic side, if anything does form, it is probably an Epac system. Even an Atlantic system if it formed will face nasty shear (a little less if heading to Florida) and dry air if it ventures up into our part of GOMEX.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

In the long range there is one CAG system, maybe one subtropical system, and nothing else. Eerie for September.

[Stratton23]

As i suspected the GFS is no longer the only global model showing a CAG system in the western caribbean , 12z CMC now shows an area of low pressure forming in the SW caribbean and lifting north,, , MJO going into 8/1 usually helps to enhance or get the CAG started, will keep watching the trends with this one

[DunedinDave]

It’s interesting that the 12z GFS and 6z Euro tease the idea of a CAG system around the 1-year anniversary of Helene forming in that same exact area. Not to mention the year so far has been almost identical to 2024 where it was quiet at peak season.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET continues with the MDR TS, very likely headed for a recurve in the middle of the ocean:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 34.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2025 120 14.2N 35.3W 1008 28
0000UTC 16.09.2025 132 15.1N 38.9W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2025 144 16.7N 41.0W 1006 36
0000UTC 17.09.2025 156 17.7N 42.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 17.09.2025 168 19.2N 45.2W 1003 44

[Stratton23]

Euro is starting to show signs of life in the atlantic