2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Pelicane]

GFS suddenly likes the wave about to come off Africa. GEFS is also much more active within 3 days.

[Kingarabian]

I still think we need to see the EPAC slow down for any serious GOM/WCaribb activity.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[Stratton23]

GFS continuing to show a more active period ahead, with potential 3 areas to watch, i expect other models will correct toward the GFS in the coming days ahead, I dont buy the euro showing anything with the MJO going into 8/1

[Kazmit]

18z GFS has a MDR TD by Thursday. I’ll believe it when I see it!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS continuing to show a more active period ahead, with potential 3 areas to watch, i expect other models will correct toward the GFS in the coming days ahead, I dont buy the euro showing anything with the MJO going into 8/1

Yeah that's the one thing this upcoming wave will have in its favor that 91L didn't, the MJO. Theoretically should put it in a more conducive environment, but I can understand any skepticism surrounding this given how badly we were just burned lol.

[BobHarlem]

Here's the 18z gfs stalling out a massive hurricane south of Bermuda.

[Stratton23]

DorkyMcDorkFace oh no i get it lol, 91L was a major whiff across the board on all global models, i do think the MJO will help out alot in terms of enhancing convection and making the environment more moist for systems to potentially develop in, we shall see what happens

[cycloneye]

I am with Andy. Will believe it when I see it.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1965191472703230280

[cajungal]

The shear is so high in the Gulf that anything that tried to form there would be tore apart. Doesn’t look like it will relax til end of the month.

[MetroMike]

Shear predictions can be risky and changeable. Examples include the recent global operational models meltdown.
Just look for short term trends.

[LAF92]

Shear predictions can be risky and changeable. Examples include the recent global operational models meltdown.
Just look for short term trends.

This right here. You can’t bank on what shear maps will be in a week, whenever operational models can’t be reliable more than 2 days out.

[Pelicane]

Very quiet on the GFS, just a frontal spin-up in the long range. Doesn't like the next wave as before, just some meager ensemble support.

[Stratton23]

GFS 00z much weaker but still something is there in the gulf, the 00z CMC is starting to show a CAG setup, run ends with energy getting pulled up out of the SW caribbean lifting north into the NW caribbean, its definitely an CAG event on the CMC, first model run outside of the GFS that has kind of alluded to this potential

[MarioProtVI]

I am with Andy. Will believe it when I see it.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1965191472703230280

And it went poof on the 00z runs

[cycloneye]

The two main models on 00z, GFS blank and Euro blank on peak week.

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS is also dead through september 25th. Some energy gets into the gulf, but gets sheared and stretched out along a front, and a mess in the east caribbean at the tail end of the run. But, at least on the models, getting pretty close to a named-storm free September (It has never happened since 1851 so it's still astronomically unlikely it will this year either.). Ensembles have some activity in the MDR, but nothing enthusiastic.

[caneman]

6z GFS is also dead through september 25th. Some energy gets into the gulf, but gets sheared and stretched out along a front, and a mess in the east caribbean at the tail end of the run. But, at least on the models, getting pretty close to a named-storm free September. Ensembles have some activity in the MDR, but nothing enthusiastic.

I dont trust modeling out that far. The prediction earlier in the year was for more homegrown systems so we will see if that verifies.

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS is also dead through september 25th. Some energy gets into the gulf, but gets sheared and stretched out along a front, and a mess in the east caribbean at the tail end of the run. But, at least on the models, getting pretty close to a named-storm free September. Ensembles have some activity in the MDR, but nothing enthusiastic.

I dont trust modeling out that far. The prediction earlier in the year was for more homegrown systems so we will see if that verifies.

Until the trough that's been hanging around from the Gulf to Canada since August 25/26th or so (and still is) and the Tutt goes away, it's fairly shut down both close and waves in the MDR. It will happen at some point though. Watch when that stuff off the US coast goes away, especially in the Gulf, then it'll change quickly.

[Weathertracker96]

6z GFS is also dead through september 25th. Some energy gets into the gulf, but gets sheared and stretched out along a front, and a mess in the east caribbean at the tail end of the run. But, at least on the models, getting pretty close to a named-storm free September. Ensembles have some activity in the MDR, but nothing enthusiastic.

I dont trust modeling out that far. The prediction earlier in the year was for more homegrown systems so we will see if that verifies.

I agree with you Caneman. The season is not over by any stretch. It’s best to keep an eye on the tropics especially when the MJO comes back around.