2025 ATL hurricane season is here

[cycloneye]

Let's see how it does when it comes out and go from there.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1960355623788331060

[cycloneye]

This is how the 2025 season has unfolded so far. It better get going soon with some biggies, or the ACE will end below 100.

[LarryWx]

Let's see how it does when it comes out and go from there.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1960355623788331060

Hey Luis,
Model support for this AEW has dropped off after being rather strong 2 days ago. Then, only the GFS of the major op models didn’t develop it. Now, only the JMA has it as a TC.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1961053585501774076

[LAF92]

[imgur][/imgur]
This was tweeted by Matthew Gross last night. Just a reminder that it can change really quickly

[AnnularCane]

I posted something like that in Discord a few days ago. I don't know how to post images but this is what it said (with a few corrections). From August 23, 2005:

"I would say the break/slow period is over (Whatever it was). But most of the Atlantic is pretty unfavorable so just tropical storms should be expected. With maybe weak hurricanes. Most years get 6 or 7 hurricanes, this year has been almost unable to form them.

Matt-hurricanewatcher

[WeatherBoy2000]

I posted something like that in Discord a few days ago. I don't know how to post images but this is what it said (with a few corrections). From August 23, 2005:

"I would say the break/slow period is over (Whatever it was). But most of the Atlantic is pretty unfavorable so just tropical storms should be expected. With maybe weak hurricanes. Most years get 6 or 7 hurricanes, this year has been almost unable to form them.

Matt-hurricanewatcher

There were literally four hurricanes by that point in the season, including two long-tracking Caribbean majors back to back in July, even at the time that was a bad take. But to just get back on the topic of 2025, models are typically pretty bad at predicting large scale changes in activity and are often biased towards current conditions. There tends to be not a lot of lead time from the models seeing not much at all to an explosion in activity. The same thing will probably happen again this year.

[AnnularCane]

I posted something like that in Discord a few days ago. I don't know how to post images but this is what it said (with a few corrections). From August 23, 2005:

"I would say the break/slow period is over (Whatever it was). But most of the Atlantic is pretty unfavorable so just tropical storms should be expected. With maybe weak hurricanes. Most years get 6 or 7 hurricanes, this year has been almost unable to form them.

Matt-hurricanewatcher

There were literally four hurricanes by that point in the season, including two long-tracking Caribbean majors back to back in July, even at the time that was a bad take. But to just get back on the topic of 2025, models are typically pretty bad at predicting large scale changes in activity and are often biased towards current conditions. There tends to be not a lot of lead time from the models seeing not much at all to an explosion in activity. The same thing will probably happen again this year.

That came to my mind when I was typing that out. It seemed strange that the poster would seemingly dismiss all that earlier activity. Maybe I should go back and see if I can find that post and see what kind of replies he got. Possibly multiple reminders of the previous activity. Reading season cancel posts from 2005 is quite interesting to say the least. Especially those from just days or a week or so before Katrina.

That seems to be commonly forgotten regarding the models, or just not thought about. Including by me.