2025 ATL hurricane season is here

[cycloneye]

All is clear tonight.

[cycloneye]

The basin continues quiet even with some tropical waves marching west thru the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. And yes, we will see how the wave that will emerge from West Africa tonight or on Monday will evolve as some models have been hovering back and forth.

[cycloneye]

Basin continues to be calm and there will not be tropical development for the next 7 days.

[chaser1]

The tropical outlook for the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico...... Just sand, lots and lots of sand.

[cycloneye]

No lemon for wave south of Cabo Verde Islands, but if model support grows for it, surely they will add it.

[cycloneye]

July ends without suspicious areas for development, and August will start calmly. There are indications that after the 15th, atmospheric conditions may become more favorable with the wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the MDR and Africa areas. We will see how everything evolves in the coming weeks as we enter the peak of the season.

[cycloneye]

August has begun, the first of the three months with the highest cyclonic activity of the hurricane season.
So far, everything looks calm and quiet in the Atlantic, both in the medium and long term, according to the models.
Let’s remember that the keys regarding the models are consistency and consensus; and for now, there’s none of that.
However, the atmosphere has started its slow transition to better conditions for cyclonic development.
For example, wind shear has decreased and could decrease a bit more when the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) moves over Africa, westward.
Nevertheless, low wind shear is not enough; good humidity and unstable, rising air are needed... and from what can be seen in the atmospheric pattern, humidity is scarce, while dry and stable air prevails, which could be the inhibiting factors this year. Now, if a tropical wave or a low-pressure system survives the dry and stable air, it should benefit from the low shear. We’ll see.

Some words are in spanish but you know what I am ilustrating about.

[cycloneye]

Great message from NHC.


@NHC_Atlantic
Now that we've reached August, here's a recap of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season so far:

There have been 3 relatively short-lived tropical storms, and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is 85% below normal. https://nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/

Despite the low activity so far, stay prepared! August and September are typically the most active months of the season.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1951387211938603485

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1952199739841351831

[Teban54]

Hey, we have a generic seasonal thread that's not related to model runs or indicators? Perhaps we can use it as a "season chat"?

Anyway, here are some examples of recent seasons with a notable lull (by peak-season standards), and the most notable storms that followed them:

• 2024
  
  • "Lull": 8/20 - 9/24, with only Cat 2 Francine and TS Gordon (both underperforming model expectations)
  • Followed by: Helene (C4), Kirk (C4), Milton (C5, sub-900) and Rafael (C3)
• 2022
  
  • "Lull": Storm-free August, and even the first half of September had Earl underperforming
  • Followed by: Fiona (C4) and Ian (C5)
• 2021
  
  • "Lull": Mid-September, with Peter and Rose struggling in the MDR
  • Followed by: Sam (C4, commonly believed to be an unofficial C5)
• 2020
  
  • "Lull" (by 2020 standards): September, where despite having the most storms formed in any month on record, only one was a MH (Teddy)
  • Followed by: Delta (C4), Zeta (C3), Eta (C4), Iota (C4)

All these seasons had highly impressive and/or destructive MHs after the lull. Only 2023 had a more "conventional" peak pattern, but that was a strong El Nino where a late-season shutdown is expected. And while I didn't list 2019 and 2018, both had late-season Cat 5s.

Not all hurricane seasons will have a perfectly timed MJO - 2024 should have taught us that. And with MJO being expected to return to Phase 8/1 in mid-September or so, I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually see more activity than what some are expecting now.

[cycloneye]

Yes!!> Let' go for that chatting that is needed now that those infamous season cancel posts begin to show their head.

[AnnularCane]

Personally I think the 2024 lull ended with Francine but my standards may not be as high.

[Teban54]

Personally I think the 2024 lull ended with Francine but my standards may not be as high.

Oops, I somehow typed Cat 2 Florence

Anyway, I think "models vs. reality" was the reason why Francine and Gordon were often seen as part of the lull in 2024. At some points, Francine had model runs showing a Laura-like or Ida-like storm that was supposed to develop near the Lesser Antilles (but failed to develop there at all), while Gordon was repeatedly forecast to become a hurricane (even a strong one), similar to what Fernand went through.

That, plus the fact that it was the climo peak in a season that was unanimously expected to be hyperactive.

[Category5Kaiju]

We had one of the most phenomenal August major hurricanes in recent memory (Category 5 too!)....and, allegedly, the season is unfavorable going forward and will end with a whimper.

What really interests me (and it's moreso certain people on places such as Twitter rather than here on Storm2k) is how even the slightest unfavorable sign that appears is somehow a big warning that a bust is coming or that September 10 = quiet means season's done. Even a Caribbean cruising Category 5 hurricane in early July is apparently not enough to convince otherwise. I feel like certain wx individuals have a *bit* of a tendency to overreact when it comes down to tracking the tropics, primarily with regards to when certain events/expectations go a bit sideways.

Anyways, the truth is, lulls happen at some point with every hurricane season. Sure, some lulls may be longer and placed at more unusual timeframes than others. But there's a reason why even the most inactive seasons like 1914 or 2013 saw decent activity at some point during the month of September. I would bet my house when I saw that we're bound to see much more activity again come September this year, especially considering Erin pulled a lot of heat out of the subtropics upon recurvature (which would theoretically allow for the nature to more easily focus activity in the deep tropics). If we were able to get a bona fide Cape Verde Category 5 hurricane during mid-August, which is a time when many recent seasons struggled to produce anything of significance, then is it fair (or likely) to say that the season's over? Especially when instability naturally and automatically rises in the basin as we enter fall?

[AnnularCane]

Personally I think the 2024 lull ended with Francine but my standards may not be as high.

Oops, I somehow typed Cat 2 Florence

Anyway, I think "models vs. reality" was the reason why Francine and Gordon were often seen as part of the lull in 2024. At some points, Francine had model runs showing a Laura-like or Ida-like storm that was supposed to develop near the Lesser Antilles (but failed to develop there at all), while Gordon was repeatedly forecast to become a hurricane (even a strong one), similar to what Fernand went through.

That, plus the fact that it was the climo peak in a season that was unanimously expected to be hyperactive.

Might be because I tend to think of lulls as being flat-out dead. Although if it had consisted of only Gordon then I likely would have still counted it as part of the lull.

[Ulf]

We had one of the most phenomenal August major hurricanes in recent memory (Category 5 too!)....and, allegedly, the season is unfavorable going forward and will end with a whimper.

What really interests me (and it's moreso certain people on places such as Twitter rather than here on Storm2k) is how even the slightest unfavorable sign that appears is somehow a big warning that a bust is coming or that September 10 = quiet means season's done. Even a Caribbean cruising Category 5 hurricane in early July is apparently not enough to convince otherwise. I feel like certain wx individuals have a *bit* of a tendency to overreact when it comes down to tracking the tropics, primarily with regards to when certain events/expectations go a bit sideways.

Anyways, the truth is, lulls happen at some point with every hurricane season. Sure, some lulls may be longer and placed at more unusual timeframes than others. But there's a reason why even the most inactive seasons like 1914 or 2013 saw decent activity at some point during the month of September. I would bet my house when I saw that we're bound to see much more activity again come September this year, especially considering Erin pulled a lot of heat out of the subtropics upon recurvature (which would theoretically allow for the nature to more easily focus activity in the deep tropics). If we were able to get a bona fide Cape Verde Category 5 hurricane during mid-August, which is a time when many recent seasons struggled to produce anything of significance, then is it fair (or likely) to say that the season's over? Especially when instability naturally and automatically rises in the basin as we enter fall?

To be fair, a lot of bust postings during last year’s lull were also driven by the huge anticipation and expert forecasts of a hyper active La Niña season with insanely high numbers of named storms like UPenn’s record breaking 27-39 and more than 200 ACE.

Also, unlike in other basins which normally feature activity spread out over 4 to 7 months, the vast majority of activity in the Atlantic basin are concentrated in a 6 to 8 weeks period from mid August to early October. So, while a lull happens at some point every season, having it happen during the climatological peak period is going to have people thinking the season is going to undershoot the seasonal forecast unless the season turns out to be heavily back loaded after peak which is not guaranteed to happen.

To be honest, it is still not certain if the next 3 weeks will be quiet like the models indicate. While Euro Weeklies forecast below normal ACE, that does not mean a completely dead period. After all, a storm that blows up shortly before landfall is not going to produce anywhere near as much ACE as a long tracker.

[Ptarmigan]

The peak is from August to October.

2024 had its lull, but it was a devastating season. So many storms made landfall. The year of Beryl, Helene, and Milton.

The lulls do make me nervous as it has happened in the past.

I would be concerned of storms that form from thunderstorms from frontal boundaries.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1960335328817885286

[Category5Kaiju]

If recent model runs are to be believed (cough cough, Euro, ICON, and CMC), then this upcoming "lull" may not really be a "lull" after all, with interesting activity picking up in the MDR just as we begin September....

[TomballEd]

Euro weeklies pretty consistent on much below ACE into mid-September. After September 15, above normal ACE. Cyclone prob maps suggests more fish or near misses, but there is a risk to parts of the Gulf and East Coast.

I've been posting this in the under and over 16 day threads. Euro has been fairly consistent. The boring period won't last long.