2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

It’s the pattern. Hey LAF92, I went ahead and watched the first 12 minutes of Saturday summary (hurricane portion anyway), and it’s basically what I posted above. Probably worth your time to watch that portion which he’s got graphics.

[BobHarlem]

336 Hour gfs ensembles, other than a short lived weak thing off a front along the Mid Atlantic, this looks more like June. Something at the tail end in the MDR, but not a strong signal (And not on operationals) One way I tell if we're active or not is if you can use the MLSP surface charts or percip models to find anything on the operational models, if you need to use the 850mb voracity to even find a hint, it's dead. Not even a hint of anything from 99L either.


Google Deep Mind Ensembles:



Could switch up by the second half of September, but for now it's still about as quiet as late August could be in the Atlantic. The one wave that does show up in the MDR in the ensembles leaves Africa on Labor Day, but it's not in any operationals.

[tropicwatch]

Time to watch the fronts. Forecast Models sometimes have a hard time sniffing out development from these features.

[StormWeather]

EURO hinting at a few circulations in the CPAC, and the 00Z run of Easterlywave had several members crossing the IDL and moving into the WPAC.

[cycloneye]

This is for September 10th (Peak day) and is not common to see it without TC's on that particular day. I guess there are not many years that are like this in the archives.

[LarryWx]

336 Hour gfs ensembles, other than a short lived weak thing off a front along the Mid Atlantic, this looks more like June. Something at the tail end in the MDR, but not a strong signal (And not on operationals) One way I tell if we're active or not is if you can use the MLSP surface charts or percip models to find anything on the operational models, if you need to use the 850mb voracity to even find a hint, it's dead. Not even a hint of anything from 99L either.
https://i.imgur.com/f9T9ng2.png

Google Deep Mind Ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/L8sqKq1.png


Could switch up by the second half of September, but for now it's still about as quiet as late August could be in the Atlantic. The one wave that does show up in the MDR in the ensembles leaves Africa on Labor Day, but it's not in any operationals.

This kind of reminds me of the 2024 19 day lull of no storms during the first half of peak season.

[StormWeather]

EURO hinting at a few circulations in the CPAC, and the 00Z run of Easterlywave had several members crossing the IDL and moving into the WPAC.

12Z GFS run on board with this. Spins up a short-lived 998 mb system in the CPAC as it approaches the IDL.

[Stratton23]

Wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we saw 1-2 homegrown systems in the atlantic over the next 2 weeks while the MDR goes quiet, models continue to show several decent fronts making progress into the gulf over the next 10-14 days, lots of energy in the gulf and se coast but nothing consolidating yet, worth watching though

[LarryWx]

For the record and fwiw, the 12Z UKMET is its first run with a TD forming at 132 hours in the E Atlantic and moving WSW. This could easily be gone on the next run and seems like a big longshot when considering other models and ensembles: 17.6N, 17.6W

If this were real, the Cabo Verde Islands would get another hit in 2025!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24
0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

[tolakram]

Concerning numerous posts from various users:

This is a model runs thread, not a social media thread. Just expect your posts to vanish if off topic. Every year we get season cancel crap that drifts into just about every thread and drives multiple mods crazy. I don't care, they don't care, most of us don't care. Not sure how to politely phrase that. Feel free to create a 2025 season cancel thread and talk away.

[LarryWx]

For the record and fwiw, the 12Z UKMET is its first run with a TD forming at 132 hours in the E Atlantic and moving WSW. This could easily be gone on the next run and seems like a big longshot when considering other models and ensembles: 17.6N, 17.6W

If this were real, the Cabo Verde Islands would get another hit in 2025!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24
0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

Actually, I need to retract what I said above, “This could easily be gone on the next run and seems like a big longshot when considering other models..”

I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, and JMA in addition to the UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm.

[Ptarmigan]

Time to watch the fronts. Forecast Models sometimes have a hard time sniffing out development from these features.

That is something I have concerns about.

I am not aware of any forecast models that have Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) from frontal boundaries becoming tropical in nature. The forecast models tend to forecast tropical waves becoming hurricanes.

[LarryWx]

0Z followup to all 12Z major ops but GFS showing a surface low forming just off of Africa this weekend:

0Z Icon like 12Z has a sfc low just off Africa Sat. It becomes a TD that day and then a TS by Sun.

[Category5Kaiju]

0z ICON develops a storm right as it splashes down off the coast of Mauritania and has it pass through the Cape Verde islands before heading WNW. Mind you, this happens on Labor Day weekend, so not far from now.

Perhaps another Cape Verde system is in the works?

[LarryWx]

0z ICON develops a storm right as it splashes down off the coast of Mauritania and has it pass through the Cape Verde islands before heading WNW. Mind you, this happens on Labor Day weekend, so not far from now.

Perhaps another Cape Verde system is in the works?

OZ:
-UKMET dropped it as a TC
-GFS still doesn’t have anything
-CMC still has a very weak version but it’s even weaker than 12Z
-Euro not out yet

[LAF92]

0z ICON develops a storm right as it splashes down off the coast of Mauritania and has it pass through the Cape Verde islands before heading WNW. Mind you, this happens on Labor Day weekend, so not far from now.

Perhaps another Cape Verde system is in the works?

That might be the same wave that Larry said the UKMET was picking up on. Nvm he just clarified that lol

[LarryWx]

0z ICON develops a storm right as it splashes down off the coast of Mauritania and has it pass through the Cape Verde islands before heading WNW. Mind you, this happens on Labor Day weekend, so not far from now.

Perhaps another Cape Verde system is in the works?

That might be the same wave that Larry said the UKMET was picking up on. Nvm he just clarified that lol

The 0Z CMC like the 12Z is a much weaker version of the Icon but it is significantly further S.

[kevin]

I kinda expected 99L to develop at some point, but since it hasn't it looks like we're in for a quiet period. Below the Euro and GFS ensembles, which show some MDR action near the 10-day mark. But until then, not much.

Euro (+240hr)


GEFS (+240hr)


GEFS (+336hr)

[LarryWx]

0z ICON develops a storm right as it splashes down off the coast of Mauritania and has it pass through the Cape Verde islands before heading WNW. Mind you, this happens on Labor Day weekend, so not far from now.

Perhaps another Cape Verde system is in the works?

That might be the same wave that Larry said the UKMET was picking up on. Nvm he just clarified that lol

The Euro (0Z) has this again as a weak low just off Africa. It then eventually comes across to just N of the Leewards as a H moving NW though those details aren’t important so far out on an operational.
The EPS (0Z) again has a few TC members from this and they all are headed for a safe recurve from the US.

The Icon (6Z) has this again at 120 just off Africa.

The GFS (6Z) again doesn’t have this develop.

[Teban54]

With the caveat that 360 hr model runs are not to be taken literally... The (supposedly conservative) 0z ECMWF has two CV storms at the end of the run.