cycloneye wrote:Down to 147 today, will probably dip into the 130-135 range by 9/10 unless we unexpectedly generate some ACE before then. More importantly U.S. ACE is falling as well, odds of 3+ U.S. hurricane landfalls now less than 25%.
https://i.imgur.com/kyq67Dx.jpeg
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane
Thanks, Luis. Seasons with 3+ H hits on the CONUS are considered quite active for the CONUS. They include these over the last 30 seasons (current active era): 2024, 20, 17, 08, 05, 04, 1999, 98
So, that’s 8 out of 30 or 27% with 3+ CONUS H hits. Thus, he’s saying odds of 3+ have dropped to slightly lower than the normal chance of the active era. That seems to me like a reasonable drop considering the chance of the first prior to Sept 7th is low per models.