Tropical Wave East of the Leeward Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

A little bit more convection.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The GFS has been pretty consistent with this for the past few runs now, forming north of the lesser Antilles/Puerto Rico and becoming a low-end hurricane in the subtropics.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO doesn't have anything new.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Code Red

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

This could be a possible low end hurricane for Bermuda

[Travorum]

At this point this is mainly between a Bermuda/Atlantic Canada threat and total recurve if it develops at all, at least based on ensembles. GFS ensembles send a strong TS to Cat 1 Hurricane towards Bermuda's vicinity before giving Newfoundland and Nova Scotia some much-needed rain, while the Euro members that do develop trend east of Bermuda and OTS:

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder why this one is not tagged with an Invest?

[hurricane2025]

No threat will prob soon but it’s a fish.. will be a weak one

[LarryWx]

No threat will prob soon but it’s a fish.. will be a weak one

This may affect Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a bit more concentrated
in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east
of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L should be up shortly. Note= Anyone can start a invest thread, not the same members that start them like me and a couple more. Let's have participation expand.

Link to ATCF.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Stormybajan]

For some reason, this 40-70 wave (which models do show developing in a few days) is STILL not an invest. Also Recon is scheduled for tomorrow for this system so why are nhc so hesitant with the invest tag for this one? Im a bit at a loss tbh. . Im sure it will be tagged sometime today but I just found it strange since its been on the AOI map for a while now

[cycloneye]

For those who want to start the invest 90L thread, here is a tip.

90L will appear on the list between 99L and 05L which is Erin. Keep refreshing.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Kazmit]

No invest is crazy, but even crazier is the vast difference between the GFS solution and other models. GFS has a cat 2 direct hit on Bermuda and the others barely show a depression.

[cycloneye]

Approaching the Leewards and still not a invest, hmmmm.

[AJC3]

Invest 90L is up