2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

[LAF92]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

Would this particular storm develop from a Caribbean Gyre or from 99L?

[WeatherBoy2000]

The CPC does highlight the western Caribbean/BOC during the first of week of September.

[USTropics]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

Would this particular storm develop from a Caribbean Gyre or from 99L?

This is not a CAG scenario (we typically see the 2nd CAG phase of the season late September and October). I've roughly highlighted the wave axis of 99L at every 24 hour timesteps, this is definitely the ghost of 99L that the GFS is developing later in the GOM:


Here is the full 12z run animation sped up:


It's definitely possible given the climatology peak, but the GFS has been just a bit too 'trigger happy' this year (not just in the Atlantic basin either). If some other models start to show development in the Caribbean/GOM I'll buy more in to it. As always, my rule of thumb for hurricane season: follow every tropical wave axis until it crosses land or gets north of 50N.

[otowntiger]

Wow! If the current models are to be believed we are heading into a very quiet next two weeks! A surprise for the heart of an above average season. I’m sure things will change but I gotta admit I’m surprised by what the models are showing, or actually not showing.

[DunedinDave]

Yeah we are definitely trending toward a quiet trend into the season peak. Im a bit surprised.

That said, last year we were dead quiet until Helene in late September. And then things ramped up. The Caribbean doesn’t really start to get its act together until after Sept. 10. Before that, storms are mostly coming from Africa, and outside of Erin, there just haven’t been a lot of pop from that region the last two seasons and most everything has been re-curving.

[TomballEd]

There isn't much support from the ensembles once 90L recurves. A couple redvelop 99L in the Caribbean or Gulf. 30% normal ACE for the first week of September per Euro weeklies. Maybe something develops near the CVs, but there isn't a ton of support for that either. Erin and future Frednand will rack up the ACE, but doesn't see much will follow. Things get busy again if the weeklies are correct mid-September.

[TomballEd]

Tiny bit of support for something that will follow 90L out to sea and developing in the same area on the GFS family, the Euro family has weak support for a subtropical development of the East Coast.

But it still looks like dead tropics after 90L recurves. Near the peak of the season. But it comes back around mid-September. That is for the Day 16+ thread, of course.

[hurricane2025]

It’s August anything can happen.. hell gfs has cat 4 hitting Texas this run

[Jr0d]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

It almost as if the GFS needs to have major(phantom) landfall at the of the run at least once a day throughout the season.

Looking like a quiet 2 weeks for now. That can change quickly, especially if we get a small 'home grown' system pop up in the Gulf or off the southeast US coast. The models often struggle sniffing those out.

The EURO AI is showing a wave with potential after labor day but that's too far out to be considered.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1958984393717952892

[WeatherBoy2000]

The eps shows the mdr perking up again around the first week of September, the rest of August looks quiet except for 99l.

[Stratton23]

closer to home with the stalled front currently in the gulf, the 12z GFS at day 3 tries to consolidate some vorticity in the central gulf… Just saying its short range, but always watch these fronts that stall in the gulf

[TomballEd]

closer to home with the stalled front currently in the gulf, the 12z GFS at day 3 tries to consolidate some vorticity in the central gulf… Just saying its short range, but always watch these fronts that stall in the gulf

Not very likely. GFS shows it surrounded by dry air which keeps it from doing much despite a fairly favorable upper level pattern. GFS ensembles show a few weak lows (> 1010 mb) which don't do anything. I think if anything were to form it would be more likely to happen off the East Coast.

OTOH the last major to landfall in NWS Houston-Galveston's CWA was a stalled front in the Gulf in August and the current stalled front is quite convectively active.

[TomballEd]

An active EPac rarely coexists with an active Atlantic.

[BobHarlem]

The 18z gfs is remarkably bare for the Atlantic for late August, that's for sure. Ensembles aren't showing all that much either.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if September 10th (Peak Day) will be without a TC. Is not many times that the important date is without something out there. Let's see how things shape up for that date this year.

[Stratton23]

Also another thing to watch over the coming weeks is models are showing several decent cold fronts sweeping down into the gulf over the next few weeks, always have to watch these fronts even in a period where the rest of the basin is quiet

[Steve]

Also another thing to watch over the coming weeks is models are showing several decent cold fronts sweeping down into the gulf over the next few weeks, always have to watch these fronts even in a period where the rest of the basin is quiet

Yeah there’s a couple of reasons. Sometimes they’ll leave back a piece of energy as we see from time to time or mesh with some energy and spin something up in the lower levels. Also cold fronts coming down usually correlate with the tropics coming up. Some people used to believe the old wives tale that fronts meant the season was over - and that was kind of conventional wisdom 30+ years ago. But we know better. Big cold (relatively) highs you always look underneath.

[Blown Away]

What is causing low after low to move off the mid Atlantic area? IMO, not much tropical action from the E or SE going to effect the CONUS with this pattern.