ATL: ERIN - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 71.3W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck,
North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Cape Lookout to Duck,
North Carolina.



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin's cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than
earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over
the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly
shear. An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the
dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc
clouds emanating northwestward from the system. The northerly
shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin.
The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from
another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. This
intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective
values from UW-CIMSS.

After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has
resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged. Over
the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western
side of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, an
approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that
the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary. However,
given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over
the system, not much additional strengthening is likely. In any
event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least
the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status
through the middle of the week. The official intensity forecast is
at the high end of the model guidance.

Erin's continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola
this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the
southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas. Flash and
urban flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
tonight through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible beginning on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 24.0N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.9N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 72.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 28.4N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 30.5N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 34.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 38.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...CENTER OF ERIN PASSING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 71.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 71.7W
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES




Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin has weakened some since the last advisory. Multiple microwave
overpasses show that the convection has eroded on the northwestern
side and that the mid-level center is displaced to the southeast
of the low-level center by northwesterly shear. Reports from NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
central pressure has risen to near 949 mb, and that flight-level
winds at 8000 and 10000 ft are in the 105-115 kt range. The
initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt for this advisory, and this
could be a bit generous. It should be noted that the wind field
has become very spread out, with flight-level winds of hurricane
force noted by the two aircraft more than 100 n mi from the center.

Erin has slowed its forward speed with the initial motion now 320/7
kt. The overall track reasoning remains unchanged, with Erin
expected to turn northward during the next day or two into a break
in the subtropical ridge, followed by recurvature into the
westerlies with some acceleration thereafter. However, there is
some spread in the track guidance in both direction and speed. The
UKMET and ECMWF are slower and on the left side of the guidance
envelope, while the GFS and Canadian are on the right side of the
guidance and faster. The new forecast track is similar in direction
to the previous track, but it is going to be slower than the
previous track in deference to the ECMWF/UKMET and the consensus
models.

The dynamical model guidance suggests that the current shear should
diminish in 18-24 h, and as that happens the upper-level winds
become divergent over the hurricane. However, due to the current
poor organization, it is unclear whether Erin will be able to take
advantage of the more favorable environment. The intensity forecast
first calls for some additional weakening due to the ongoing
shear. After that, it calls for modest re-intensification as the
upper-level winds become more favorable. Once Erin has recurved
into the westerlies, there should be substantial weakening due to
another round of shear and the onset of extratropical transition.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin
is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used
to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected into Wednesday for portions of the
southeastern Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
tonight through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible beginning on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.4N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 25.4N 72.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 27.1N 73.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 29.2N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 35.4N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 41.1N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN FORECAST TO SUBSTANTIALLY GROW IN SIZE WHILE MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear has caused Erin's structure
to become more asymmetric, with dry air infiltrating into the
northwestern part of the circulation, and a long trailing convective
band still draped to the south over the Turks and Caicos Islands.
An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission made a final
pass through the center of Erin around 1230 am and measured
flight-level winds of 97 kt, with a central pressure up to 953 mb.
Combining this information with the latest satellite estimates,
Erin's intensity is set at 100 kt, which could be a bit generous.

Erin has been moving slowly northwestward since yesterday, with an
initial motion estimated to be 325/6 kt. There is not much change
to the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane still expected
to recurve over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda over the next 3-4 days. The main highlight of the new
forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus
aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction
during the first 2-3 days. The new NHC forecast is very close to
the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the first 48 hours, and then
closer to the TVCA aid beyond 48 hours. It should be noted that
there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track
forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours with the HCCA aid lying along
the northwestern edge of the guidance envelope.

There are mixed signals on Erin's future intensity. On one hand,
more favorable environmental shear and upper-level divergence in
24-36 hours should support some re-intensification. On the other
hand, Erin's slow motion and large size could lead to some upwelling
of cooler water, and the hurricane's broad structure could limit
significant strengthening. The official forecast only shows
fluctuations in intensity for the next 3 days, although it's
becoming more likely that Erin could just weaken very gradually
during that time. Erin is forecast to maintain hurricane strength
for the next 5 days, but it is likely to begin interacting with a
frontal boundary by Friday and become extratropical by late
Saturday.

The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has
continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been
made larger in the new NHC forecast. This new forecast now brings
tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast later this week. Erin's expanding wind
field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western
Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday
night where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.
Interests in along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as
strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.

3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash
and urban flooding are possible.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 24.8N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 26.1N 72.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 30.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 34.6N 71.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 39.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LARGER WHILE MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 72.2W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.4W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Erin's cloud pattern continues to be disrupted by vertical wind
shear, with the low-level center situated near the northwestern edge
of the main area of deep convection. There are still well-defined
convective banding features over the eastern semicircle of the
system. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen compared to earlier
this morning. The advisory intensity is set to 90 kt, comparable to
a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. However, wind
observations from the Hurricane Hunters suggest that this intensity
estimate may be on the high side.

The hurricane is moving a little faster to the northwest with an
initial motion estimate of 325/8 kt. Erin is expected to turn
northward around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone
centered southeast of Bermuda. Later in the period, the system
should turn to the northeast with some increase in forward speed as
it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no
significant adjustments to the previous NHC forecast track and the
official forecast lies very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.

Predicting Erin's intensity is somewhat problematic. Given the
current disorganization of the cloud pattern, one would be reluctant
to call for restrengthening. However,the dynamical guidance shows
increasingly anticyclonic upper-level flow over the system and the
SHIPS model diagnoses a significant decrease in vertical wind shear.
Therefore, the official forecast shows a bit of restrengthening in
the next 36 hours. This is somewhat above the model consensus but
below the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.

The global models continue to show an increase in the size of the
hurricane, with the tropical-storm-force wind radii crossing the
North Carolina Outer Banks within the next couple of days.
Accordingly, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings have been
issued for this area.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
now in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash
and urban flooding are possible.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as
strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 72.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 27.0N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 29.1N 73.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.7N 72.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 35.6N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 37.3N 66.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 40.3N 58.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 72.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch is extended northward along the U.S.
Atlantic coast north of Cape Charles Light, Virginia to
Chincoteague, Virginia.

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.




Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

After becoming somewhat disrupted earlier today, Erin's cloud
pattern has become better organized with increasing coverage and
intensity of central convection. The upper-tropospheric outflow is
becoming better defined over the northern portion of the
circulation, indicating some decrease in vertical wind shear. The
advisory intensity remains at 90 kt which is about the maximum
of the various satellite-based subjective and objective estimates.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for a few
hours from now to provide a good estimate of Erin's intensity.

Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite
images, Erin turned to a north-northwestward heading a few hours
ago and the initial motion estimate is now around 330/9 kt. The
system is situated in a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and
should turn northward along the western side of a mid-level high
centered southeast of Bermuda Wednesday. Erin should turn toward
the northeast as it rounds the northwestern side of the high, and
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward in the southern
part of the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic.
Little changes were made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory, and the official forecast remains close to the model
consensus.

Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system
will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days,
some re-strengthening could occur. The future intensity is
dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes
re-established. The official forecast conservatively shows a
slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the
LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that. Later
in the forecast period, Erin should gradually weaken over the
cooler waters of the north Atlantic and lose its tropical
characteristics in 4-5 days.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 72.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERIN...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 72.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 73.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES




Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Erin has become a little better organized during the past several
hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows persistent strong
convection near and to the north of the center, while microwave
overpasses and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the eyewall is trying to re-form. However,
these changes have not yet resulted in a tighter inner core wind
field, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt were
measured about 100 n mi from the center. Based on this, the
flight-level winds closer to the center, and satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous
85 kt.

The initial motion is now 340/10. The hurricane remains situated in
a weakness or break in the subtropical ridge, and it is expected to
turn northward along the western side of the ridge on Wednesday.
After that, Erin should turn northeastward with some acceleration
as it moves into the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies
over the north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the
forecast track through 72 h, and this part of the track lies near
the center of the tightly-packed track guidance. After 72 h, the
there is more spread, and the consensus models have shifted a
little northward. In response, this portion of the track has been
shifted to the north.

For the next 36 h, Erin will be in an environment of light to
moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Much of
the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen
during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more
concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this
happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening
during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the
central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in
the winds as the hurricane grows larger. After 36 h, increasing
shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause
weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low
by 96 h.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southeastern coast of Virginia, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect, on Thursday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 27.7N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 29.3N 73.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 31.6N 73.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 33.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 35.9N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 37.7N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 39.3N 62.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 42.5N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z 44.8N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 73.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES





Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The last center fix of an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission found that Erin's central pressure had dropped by a
few millibars to 954 mb. Although satellite intensity estimates
have increased slightly over the past 6 hours, there is no firm
evidence to indicate that the pressure drop has translated into
stronger maximum winds, which are being held at 85 kt. A
recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the hurricane has
an small inner eyewall extending about 15 n mi from the center with
a pronounced outer ring of convection extending 70-90 n mi from the
center. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate
Erin in a few hours and should be able to help ascertain if the
winds have increased.

Erin is moving north-northwestward, or 345/11 kt, but it is likely
to turn northward very soon. The track guidance is in very good
agreement during Erin's expected recurvature over the western
Atlantic between the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda, and no
significant changes were made to the first 24-36 hours of the
forecast. After 36 hours, there has been a notable increase in
forward speed among the models when Erin becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. These changes are most evident at days 4 and 5, with
the new day 5 position about 600 n mi northeast of the previous day
5 forecast point.

Warm waters, relatively light shear, and upper-level divergence
could support some intensification over the next 36 hours or so.
However, it is unclear if Erin's broad structure will support much
increase of the maximum winds, despite the global models showing the
central pressure falling further into the 940s mb. The NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the HCCA consensus aid, showing
some slight strengthening through Thursday. A substantial increase
in shear is likely to induce weakening by 48 hours, and Erin is
expected to become post-tropical by day 4.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today or tonight.
The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday
along the southeastern coast of Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.

4. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts, and Atlantic Canada, should also monitor the
progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday through
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.9N 73.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 30.6N 73.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 35.4N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 37.4N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 39.3N 63.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 45.8N 43.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0600Z 51.1N 30.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN EXPECTED TO BRING
WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY
THIS EVENING...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 73.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...LARGE ERIN STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADED NORTH...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 73.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia.




Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 9 kt winds so
the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 942 mb. The
hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.

Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.

Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SOON IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS..
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NEARING THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES






Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025

Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a
fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding
features. Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts
of the circulation. An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z
showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of
convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner
eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi. The current intensity
estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of
around 12 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast
reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory. Erin
should move around the western and northwestern periphery of
a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so,
moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the
system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the previous NHC
prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level
moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system
will likely prevent significant strengthening and the official
intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in
intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in
about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in
vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that
time onward. The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global
models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway
in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.

Erin is an usually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting
through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN BRUSHING THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT OR NEAR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES






Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate little change in Erin during the past
several hours. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 942
mb, and the wind data showed two concentric wind maxima - a weaker
one about 15 n mi from the center and a stronger one 60-70 n mi
from the center. The maximum 700-mb flight-level winds in the outer
wind band are near 105 kt. Based on the lack of change since
earlier, the initial intensity remains 95 kt, which is near the
average of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.

The initial motion is now 010/14 kt. The steering scenario and
track forecast reasoning are again unchanged from the previous
advisory. Erin should move around the western and northwestern
periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next 12-24 h, passing
between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the system
should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic. The track guidance has changed little, and the new track
forecast is an update of the previous forecast.

A little strengthening could occur during the next 12 h or so,
although the concentric wind maxima structure argues against
significant strengthening. After 12 h, Erin should encounter
increasing westerly shear and move over colder sea surface
temperatures, which should result in steady weakening. The system
is also expected to merge with a frontal system to become an
extratropical low, and while this is currently forecast to occur
by 72 h it could happen earlier. Erin should continue to weaken
after extratropical transition as it moves east-northeastward
across the north Atlantic.

Erin is an unusually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday. The storm surge
will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach
erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova
Scotia on Friday and Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 32.8N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.8N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 36.8N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 38.7N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 44.5N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 50.0N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z 54.3N 21.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...ERIN JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 72.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES




Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Erin's satellite presentation currently shows the low-level center
embedded beneath a 90 n mi-wide Central Dense Overcast. Outer
convective bands extend a couple of hundred miles away from the
center, but there has recently been some erosion of the clouds
within the southwestern part of the circulation, which likely
signals an increase in shear. On the last transect through the
storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured 700-mb
flight-level winds of 100 kt, and found that the central pressure
had risen to 945 mb. The current intensity is estimated to be 90
kt, although it should be noted that some of the satellite intensity
estimates are lower.

Erin has made its closest approach to the North Carolina coast and
is now moving north-northeastward (020 degrees) at 15 kt. There is
no change in the forecast reasoning of the future track. Erin
should continue to accelerate and turn east-northeastward by Friday
as it becomes increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the
previous prediction, showing Erin racing across the north Atlantic
with a peak forward speed of about 35 kt in 72 hours.

The prospects for strengthening appear to be coming to a close,
particularly with the atmosphere becoming more stable and shear
increasing during the next 12-24 hours. Only slow weakening is
forecast during the next 36 hours, but steady weakening is likely
after that time. Erin's transition to a post-tropical cyclone has
been moved up to 60 hours in the official forecast, but some of the
latest guidance indicate it could happen as soon as 36-48 hours
from now. The global models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are also
trending toward keeping the post-tropical cyclone big and strong
while it moves across the north Atlantic, and the NHC wind radii and
intensity forecasts have been adjusted upward accordingly.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue
on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be
accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and
overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia
coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts today through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon
through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the
coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 34.2N 72.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 35.8N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 37.8N 66.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 39.6N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 41.4N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 43.6N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z 46.7N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z 53.0N 26.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z 56.8N 21.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 71.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES