ATL: ERIN - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 56.8W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 57.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin continues to slowly become better organized, with convective
banding increasing near the center and a couple of attempts to form
an eye. Earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data did not
show any increase in winds after the previous advisory, although
the central pressure fell to near 993 mb. Satellite intensity
estimates are in the 60-75 kt range and are gradually increasing.
The initial intensity is held at 65 kt pending the arrival of the
next NOAA and Air Force aircraft this evening.

The initial motion is 290 to 295 degrees at 15 kt. The subtropical
ridge to the north will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward
through the weekend, although the motion during the next 36 h or so
may be closer to 285 degrees. After that time, encroaching
mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a weakness to
develop in the ridge, and this will cause Erin to gradually turn
northward with a decrease in forward speed. The guidance remains in
fairly good agreement through about 72 hours. After that time,
there are still differences in both the forward speed and
cross-track spread with regards the turn toward the north. The
regional hurricane models again lie along the western edge of the
guidance envelope, while the GFS remains on the eastern edge.
Overall, though, there again has been little change in the guidance
envelope and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from
the previous track.

Erin is forecast to be in an environment of light to occasionally
moderate northwesterly vertical shear and over sea surface
temperatures that warm to 29-30C along the forecast track. However,
there is also a large area of mid-level dry and African dust to the
north of the hurricane, and the satellite appearance suggests Erin
is ingesting tongues of dry air. Although the environment may not
be ideal, the regional hurricane models are in excellent agreement
that Erin will reach a peak intensity at or above 120 kt during the
next 2-4 days. Based on this, the new intensity forecast now calls
for a peak intensity of 125 kt in 72 h, and it is possible Erin
could get stronger than this. As the hurricane gets stronger, there
is a high chance that eyewall replacement cycles will cause
fluctuations in intensity that are not included in the current
forecast. It is also expected that Erin will become very large and
powerful hurricane by the end of the forecast period in the
southwestern Atlantic, and the current forecast wind radii at 96-120
h may not be large enough.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.9N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.6N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 21.2N 65.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 22.3N 67.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 23.4N 68.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 24.8N 69.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 27.9N 70.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 32.2N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NORTH
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua/Barbuda has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the island of Barbuda.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

...ERIN NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 59.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin appears to be starting a period of rapid intensification
tonight. The structure on satellite imagery has improved quite
dramatically, with a small eye becoming more apparent on infrared
satellite images within a small but cold central dense overcast.
GOES-19 1-minute imagery also shows convective hot towers rotating
cyclonically around, helping to make the hurricane's core more
axis-symmetric. We have had a wealth of data from both the NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters this evening. The Tail Doppler
Radar data on board the NOAA-P3 showed that the wind field has
become much better organized, especially in the northern
semi-circle, with tilt diagnostics showing Erin's deep-layer
circulation now vertically aligned. Within the past hour, the Air
Force C-130 aircraft found 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt in the
northwestern quadrant. This reduces to a sustained wind of 85 kt,
making Erin a Category 2 hurricane.

The hurricane moved a little right of track earlier this evening,
but smoothing out the wobbles, the latest motion still appears to be
west-northwestward at 290/16 kt. Not much has changed with the track
philosophy, with a large subtropical anticyclone
helping to steer Erin off to the west-northwest for at least the
next 24-48 hours. Thereafter, a weakness in this ridge begins to
develop, thanks in part to a series of digging shortwaves along a
broad longwave trough centered just west of Atlantic Canada. This
evolution in the synoptic pattern should allow Erin to turn
northwestward and then northward by the end of the forecast period.
The track guidance remains in pretty good agreement for the first
2-3 days of the period, but across-track spread does increase by day
5, with the ECMWF model on the left side of the guidance envelope,
and the GFS on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is
quite similar to the prior one, and elects to split the difference
between these solutions, close to the HCCA and GDMI track solutions.

In the short-term, all factors appear favorable for Erin to
intensify, likely rapidly, over the next day or two. With the
development of a small inner core, low shear, warm sea-surface
temperatures, and ample mid-level moisture. DTOPS guidance shows a
greater than 75 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over
the next 24 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows that
amount of intensification over the next day, bringing Erin to
Category 4 intensity by tomorrow night, and peaking at 125 kt in 36
h. The tricky part of the forecast comes after the next day, where
it seems likely there will be some inner-core fluctuations due to
eyewall replacement cycles, which are difficult to predict with much
lead time. In addition, the models continue to show the potential
for an increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear to 20-30 kt at
48-72 hours. In fact, the HAFS-A/B simulated satellite imagery show
a significant degradation in structure over this time period, so the
NHC intensity forecast now shows a little weakening beyond 36 h, and
it could weaken more if these hurricane-regional models verify.
Regardless, the combination of eyewall replacement cycles and
vertical wind shear will likely lead to a dramatic expansion of the
wind field of Erin, making it a large and powerful hurricane towards
the end of the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.5N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 28.9N 70.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...ERIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 61.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES






Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin is rapidly strengthening and is now a category 3 major
hurricane. Satellite images indicate that Erin has a small eye and a
compact and symmetric inner core. The hurricane has also been
maintaining a large area of deep convection to the southwest of the
core, and those outer rainbands are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters departed Erin a few hours
ago, but on their last couple of passes through the center, the
minimum pressure was steadily falling. Since the structure of the
system has notably improved over the past few hours, the initial
intensity is increased to 105 kt, and that could be conservative.
Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Erin again later this morning, and that wealth of data will be very
helpful in evaluating the cyclone's intensity and structure.

The system continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest at
about 17 kt on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This overall
motion should continue through the weekend, taking the core of Erin
to the north of the eastern Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After
that time, the western side of the ridge is expected to weaken, due
to a series of shortwave troughs, and that should cause Erin to slow
down and make a gradual turn to the north. The models agree on this
general theme, but there are some differences on where, when, and
how sharply Erin makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is
a touch to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. Confidence continues to increase
that the core of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas and the
United States.

Erin is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over the next 12
hours while it remains in favorable conditions of warm water, low
wind shear, and in an environment of high moisture. Erin will likely
become a Category 4 hurricane later today and strengthening could
continue through tonight. By early next week, however, an increase
in shear should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance for
the first 24 to 36 hours, and then falls near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands
are possible in portions of the the northern Leeward Islands
later today and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents
along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the
U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.8N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
550 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Erin and on
the first pass through the hurricane they found that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. This makes Erin a Category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum pressure has
fallen to 948 mb (27.99 inches). The next intermediate advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 550 AM AST...0950 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Gibbs/Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin has continued to rapidly strengthen during the past 6 h and is
now a category 4 hurricane. Reports from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 925 mb inside a 6 nm wide eye, and flight-level winds in
the northern eyewall support surface winds in the 130-135 kt range.
The initial intensity is increased to 135 kt, a 70-kt increase since
24 h ago. The aircraft, along with land-based radar data from Sint
Maarten, report that an outer eyewall is starting to form. However,
this has yet become apparent in the aircraft wind data.

The hurricane has been moving a bit to the left of the previous
forecast track with the initial motion of 280/15. The track guidance
suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should then continue through
the weekend, taking the core of Erin to the north of the eastern
Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After 36 h, the western side of
the ridge is expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should
cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. The
track guidance models are in general agreement with this scenario,
but there remain some differences on where, when, and how sharply
Erin makes the northward turn. The new track forecast is shifted to
the south during the first 12-24 h based on the initial position and
motion, and it lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
From 24-72 h there track has been shifted westward due to an overall
shift in the guidance, and the track is similar to the previous
track at 96 and 120 h.

The development of the outer eyewall suggests that rapid
intensification should end during the next several hours. However,
Erin is expected to reach category 5 status before this occurs, and
the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 145 kt.
After 12 h, the environment becomes a little less favorable, with
increasing northwesterly shear and possible dry air entrainment.
This should lead to gradual weakening of the cyclone through 72 h,
although superimposed on this trend will be fluctuations due to
eyewall replacement cycles. After 72-96 h, the cyclone is expected
to move into the westerlies where the shear is stronger, and a
faster weakening trend is expected at that time. The new intensity
forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance at 12 h and
near the intensity consensus after that.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today
through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 62.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 5 ERIN PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 5 ERIN CONTINUING TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands.


Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin's rapid intensification may have bottomed out near 16Z based on
the last couple of passes of data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter. At that time, the maximum winds were near 140 kt
and the central pressure was near 915 mb. Both Air Force and NOAA
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls forming, and during the last
couple of hours the small eye seen in conventional satellite imagery
is becoming cloud-filled. This suggests an eyewall replacement cycle
may be starting. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt pending the
upcoming arrival of a NOAA Hurricane Hunter.

The eye has started to gain latitude during the past few hours and
the initial motion is now 280/13 kt - a little slower than before.
The track guidance still suggests that Erin will turn back to the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next
6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This motion should
then continue through 24-36 h. After 36 h, the western side of
the ridge is still expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should
cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north.
However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just
when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the
12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted to the left during the entire forecast track,
and the new forecast track is also shifted to the west. The new
track is still to the east of the consensus models during the
northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary
in later forecasts.

Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours due
to possible eyewall replacement cycles. However, Erin should remain
a strong hurricane during this time. Between 24-72 h, increasing
northwesterly shear should cause a gradual weakening, although there
are likely to be fluctuations superimposed on this. After 72 h, the
storm should start to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies where
the shear will increase further. The new intensity forecast will
show an increased weakening rate, but will keep Erin as a major
hurricane as it will still be over warm sea surface temperatures
during that time.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos
Islands during the next 48 h, where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in
effect. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through
Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the
Southeast Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high
surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 20.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[abajan]

Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 66.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Southeast Bahamas...



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Satellite and Doppler Radar data from San Juan indicate that Erin is
going through some notable structural changes. The hurricane still
has a small eye in radar images with a tight and closed eyewall.
Beyond the small core, there are numerous convective rainbands that
are expanding in all quadrants, with some indication of an outer
eyewall beginning to take shape. Data from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the peak winds have been
decreasing, and the initial intensity is set at 110 kt using a blend
of the latest satellite estimates. The outer bands to the south of
the center are still affecting portions of the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. These bands are producing
gusty winds and locally heavy rains. The Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erin again later this
morning, and their data will provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity and structure.

Erin has been wobbling around, but it appears to be moving a little
to the south of the previous track. The hurricane is still moving
west-northwestward at 12 kt on the south side of a subtropical
ridge. This ridge is expected to break down later today due to a
series of troughs moving across the northwestern Atlantic. In
response to the pattern change, Erin should gradually turn toward
the north and eventually the northeast. This motion should take the
core of Erin to the east of the Bahamas on Monday and then roughly
midway between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. around the
middle of the week. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the
west in the short term based on the initial motion and latest model
guidance.

The quick weakening over the past 6 to 12 hours is associated with
Erin's structural changes and not environmental conditions. Since
the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for about
another day, re-strengthening is possible during that time period.
However, it should be noted that predicting the intensity evolution
from internal dynamics are challenging, and models often provide
little reliability in their solutions. Beyond 24 to 36 hours, a
broadening of the wind field and some increase in shear should cause
a gradual decay in the peak winds. Regardless of the details, there
is high confidence that Erin will remain a powerful hurricane during
the next several days.

Erin is growing in size, and that trend is expected to continue over
the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough
ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. Given the track
adjustments and increasing size, the government of the Bahamas has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and
a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Bahamas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today. Locally considerable flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and
Monday. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in Erin's outer
rainbands in portions of Puerto Rico today and the central Bahamas
on Monday and Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk
of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the
middle part of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 20.6N 66.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.3N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 23.8N 70.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 25.2N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 28.9N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 33.3N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 38.6N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 68.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN WHILE GROWING IN SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 68.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Erin continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern with numerous
convective banding features and strong upper-level outflow.
Satellite data indicate numerous lightning flashes in these cloud
bands. The intensity estimate is held at 110 kt for this advisory,
which is somewhat below the Dvorak values, but close to the estimate
based on the most recent aerial reconnaissance mission. Another Air
Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Erin in a
few hours to provide an update on the strength of the hurricane.

The system has been moving just a little to the right of the track
seen earlier today, and the initial motion estimate is 295/11 kt.
There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning
from the previous advisory. Erin is expected to gradually turn
northward in a couple of days while moving through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge, i.e. between two subtropical high cells. The
track guidance is basically unchanged from earlier today, so the new
official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
This remains close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN and is is
also similar to the latest FSU Superensemble guidance.

Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye
diameter increasing from 5-10 n mi to around 40 n mi. If the
replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the
eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another
intensification episode. The official forecast is consistent with
this expectation and is near the high side of the model guidance.
Notwithstanding, Erin should remain in conducive environmental
conditions and remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle
of this week.

Erin has been growing in size, and that trend is likely to continue
over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in
rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should
be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36
hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating
the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast
wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to
the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight, but are expected to
diminish by Monday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 21.7N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 68.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...ERIN RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AFTER COMPLETING
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 69.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

Erin appears to have successfully completed its eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) that began yesterday. A F-16 SSMIS pass at 2314 UTC
showed just a single eyewall with Erin that also appears to be
contracting. Thus, Erin appears to be re-intensifying but now with a
larger 20 n mi radius of maximum winds. Satellite intensity
estimates, both subjective and objective, are starting to increase
again. Notably, we received a T6.0/115 kt subjective Dvorak
intensity value at 00 UTC. The DMINT value associated with that
earlier SSMIS pass was 113 kt, and given the improvement of Erin's
structure on GOES-19 satellite imagery since that time period, the
initial intensity is being increased to 115 kt this advisory, making
Erin a Category 4 hurricane again. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission will soon be in the core of Erin to
provide updated in-situ observations of the hurricane.

It looks like Erin is beginning to turn northwestward, with the
initial motion now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The mid-level ridge
that has been steering Erin over the last few days is beginning to
split, with one ridge remaining parked over the Ohio Valley in the
United States, but another ridge becoming positioned more eastward
of Erin. This pattern will allow a weakness to form north of Erin,
enabling the large hurricane to turn northward and then
northeastward roughly between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and
Bermuda. The track guidance this cycle have not made very many
adjustments, and thus the latest NHC forecast track looks quite
similar to the prior advisory, just a little slower over the next
48 hours. This track lies roughly in between the Google Deep Mind
ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

Now that Erin has completed its ERC, there is a short-term window
where additional intensification could occur while the hurricane
remains over warm waters near 29C and light to moderate
northwesterly shear. There are a couple of complications that make
the intensity forecast tricky beyond this time period. First,
vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Erin soon. If Erin
also then undergoes another ERC, sometime in the 24-48 h time
period, this could hasten a weakening trend, like HAFS-A/B models
have been suggesting. Second, as Erin grows in size, its footprint
of cool upwelling will also grow, and could potentially encroach on
its inner core. Several AOML/CIMAS gliders have been near the
inner core of Erin over the past 24 hours, and their in-situ
observations indicate that Erin has already cooled the waters in its
vicinity up to 1C over the past day. This rate of ocean cooling near
Erin is likely to continue increasing as the storm grows in size and
slows over the next 48-60 h. Thus, the intensity forecast shows
gradual weakening beginning after a short round of intensification,
which is a little lower than the previous NHC intensity forecast
beyond the short-term, but still not far off from the HCCA
consensus aid.

Erin's wind radii have been growing in size, and are expected to
continue expanding over the next few days. The expanding wind field
will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western
Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall will linger across portions of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight, but are expected to
diminish by Monday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 22.3N 69.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 23.2N 70.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 24.6N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 26.1N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 29.9N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 41.4N 56.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 AM AST Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 69.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 70.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the central Bahamas.



Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin is growing in size, as predicted. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed that
the hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 70 n
mi and 200 n mi from the eye, respectively. The eye of the hurricane
has also grown and is now about 30 n mi in diameter, and there is
some evidence of mesovorticies within it. There is also some
indication that Erin again has concentric eyewalls as the Hurricane
Hunters reported a double wind maximum in their last pass. The
initial intensity remains 115 kt based on a combination of the
earlier aircraft data and current satellite estimates. Erin's outer
rainbands are affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and those locations will likely continue to
experience tropical storm conditions for several more hours.

The hurricane has wobbled to the left over the past 6 hours, but a
longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 11 kt. Erin is
still forecast to gradually turn northward later today and Tuesday
as it moves into a weakness within the subtropical ridge. This
motion should take the core of the hurricane roughly midway between
Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday.
After that time, an approaching trough should cause Erin to
accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. The NHC track
forecast has been nudged to the left of the previous one to be
closer to the various consensus models.

Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and symmetry, and
it seems likely that Erin will strengthen today. The intensification
is likely to end by tonight due to some increase in shear and a
broadening of the inner core wind field. Slow weakening seems likely
beginning Tuesday, but it should be emphasized that Erin is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is above the models in the short term, but falls near the
middle of the guidance after that.

Based on an evaluation of storm sizes of major hurricanes over the
past couple of decades in the subtropics, Erin is around the 80th
percentile. Erin's wind field is expected to keep growing over the
next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and
portions of the southeast and central Bahamas. Flash and urban
flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong
winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 22.8N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 71.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 25.0N 72.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 72.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 28.6N 73.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 30.7N 73.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.9N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 37.2N 66.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 41.6N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES




Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch