ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

98L over the Bay of Campeche as of 21:00 looks like the circulation is in the south west quadrant.

[Stratton23]

Since the hunters left it, 98L at least on the visible satellite imagery looks to be improving somewhat, its presentation looks better

[StormWeather]

Since the hunters left it, 98L at least on the visible satellite imagery looks to be improving somewhat, its presentation looks better

Another mission is set for tomorrow morning I believe.

[Stratton23]

NHC increased odds to 50% now, showing signs of organization

[wxman57]

It may be inland before recon goes out tomorrow. Convection has completely collapsed now. That's what models had been predicting. Weakening as it moves toward NE Mexico. Good. Only 90 miles from the coast now and moving at 20 kts. Squalls, what's left of them, will reach land before midnight.

[ConvergenceZone]

It may be inland before recon goes out tomorrow. Convection has completely collapsed now. That's what models had been predicting. Weakening as it moves toward NE Mexico. Good. Only 90 miles from the coast now and moving at 20 kts. Squalls, what's left of them, will reach land before midnight.

Yea, it doesn't look as good as earlier. Regardless tropics are starting to ramp up. I have a feeling September is going to be super busy.

[Stratton23]

Nice blowup of convection for 98L right now during diurnal minimum

[zhukm29]

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted in association with a
disturbance located about 75 miles off the coast of northeastern
Mexico or southern Texas coastline. The system could become a
short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this
afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

98L no signs of a lower circulation yet on radar, still has healthy convection and inflow and outflow on satellite.

[LarryWx]

From the recon thread, I copied these:

132500 2655N 09526W 6967 03238 //// +101 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
132530 2655N 09528W 6969 03236 //// +105 //// 137036 037 /// /// 05
132600 2654N 09530W 6970 03237 //// +096 //// 147037 038 /// /// 05
132630 2654N 09532W 6963 03242 //// +092 //// 147036 038 /// /// 05

These 4 show SE winds of 35-37 knots or 40-43 mph. Any opinions on the significance of these?

Edit: I also see these winds from the SSW to 28 knots/32 mph:

140530 2533N 09700W 9886 00234 //// +223 //// 207027 029 /// /// 05
140600 2532N 09700W 9896 00223 //// +219 //// 204027 029 /// /// 05
140630 2530N 09700W 9879 00237 //// +215 //// 203027 028 /// /// 05
140700 2529N 09700W 9866 00248 //// +210 //// 204028 030 /// /// 05

[LarryWx]

From recon thread just off of extreme NE MX:

144300 2526N 09700W 9877 00244 //// +229 //// 211035 035 /// /// 05
144330 2528N 09700W 9877 00240 //// +229 //// 210035 037 /// /// 05

So, this has SW winds to ~40 mph on the raw reports.

[TomballEd]

From the recon thread, I copied these:

132500 2655N 09526W 6967 03238 //// +101 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
132530 2655N 09528W 6969 03236 //// +105 //// 137036 037 /// /// 05
132600 2654N 09530W 6970 03237 //// +096 //// 147037 038 /// /// 05
132630 2654N 09532W 6963 03242 //// +092 //// 147036 038 /// /// 05

These 4 show SE winds of 35-37 knots or 40-43 mph. Any opinions on the significance of these?

Edit: I also see these winds from the SSW to 28 knots/32 mph:

140530 2533N 09700W 9886 00234 //// +223 //// 207027 029 /// /// 05
140600 2532N 09700W 9896 00223 //// +219 //// 204027 029 /// /// 05
140630 2530N 09700W 9879 00237 //// +215 //// 203027 028 /// /// 05
140700 2529N 09700W 9866 00248 //// +210 //// 204028 030 /// /// 05

It is a coin flip on NHC calling it a TD or even a 35 knot TS. TS warnings if they do start advisories will be increadebly short fused. Where recon has the wind shift is awfully close to land, a few hours from being onshore. SE breezes, 15 mph or less in Deep South Texas/lower RGV.

[ElectricStorm]

Special TWO drops it to 20/20 so looks like it's not going to happen.

[wwizard]

From the recon thread, I copied these:

132500 2655N 09526W 6967 03238 //// +101 //// 143035 036 /// /// 05
132530 2655N 09528W 6969 03236 //// +105 //// 137036 037 /// /// 05
132600 2654N 09530W 6970 03237 //// +096 //// 147037 038 /// /// 05
132630 2654N 09532W 6963 03242 //// +092 //// 147036 038 /// /// 05

These 4 show SE winds of 35-37 knots or 40-43 mph. Any opinions on the significance of these?

Edit: I also see these winds from the SSW to 28 knots/32 mph:

140530 2533N 09700W 9886 00234 //// +223 //// 207027 029 /// /// 05
140600 2532N 09700W 9896 00223 //// +219 //// 204027 029 /// /// 05
140630 2530N 09700W 9879 00237 //// +215 //// 203027 028 /// /// 05
140700 2529N 09700W 9866 00248 //// +210 //// 204028 030 /// /// 05

It is a coin flip on NHC calling it a TD or even a 35 knot TS. TS warnings if they do start advisories will be increadebly short fused. Where recon has the wind shift is awfully close to land, a few hours from being onshore. SE breezes, 15 mph or less in Deep South Texas/lower RGV.

No closed circulation = no TD or TS.
They didn’t even feel the need to drop a PTC tag on it.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1110 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Updated discussion for the western Gulf disturbance (AL98)

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Erin, located several hundred miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Western Gulf (AL98):
Updated: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the disturbance located along the coast of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. Aircraft wind data and
coastal Doppler radar data indicate that a closed circulation is
not present and the trough axis associated with the disturbance is
closer to the coast than previously estimated. Therefore, the
possibility of formation is diminishing with only a few hours left
over water. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[wxman57]

The trof axis was inland before the plane arrived. That's good. Maybe Erin will be the last August storm...

[ConvergenceZone]

The trof axis was inland before the plane arrived. That's good. Maybe Erin will be the last August storm...

We still have 15 days left . Actually, I think the wave after Erin may be the last storm of August(or could be first couple of days of September) and the GFS is incredibly bullish and is getting lot of attention on the Global thread. I know it's just nightmare fantasy runs right now, but face it, we are due.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Western Gulf (AL98):
Satellite and coastal Doppler radar data indicate the center of the
disturbance has moved inland near the mouth of the Rio Grande.
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in the past few hours and
additional development is no longer expected. Lingering showers and
thunderstorms could still produce locally heavy rainfall along
portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through the day.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

[jasons2k]

Looks like Don Jr. on the radar loop.