2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, there is a new thread for wave inside Africa and now the members can post the model runs there.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3130543

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1953237553236115531

[TomballEd]

12Z GFS a little more sedate. 2 storms on the run but neither looks to threaten land except maybe Bermuda*. The wave in the Caribbean various models and ensembles saw moving in day 4/5 is still there with some vorticity and enhanced PW but other than a last minute attempt to spin up in the BoC interrupted by landfall in mainland Mexico it doesn't do much. Looks like a lone ensemble member is enthusiastic above that.

Not all the GFS ensemble members miss land on the wave over Africa with its own thread.

[Stratton23]

Interesting to see the 18z GFS does develop a more consolidated vortex in the NW caribbean from our tropical wave near the leeward uslands in about a week, moves into central mexico around tampico, may still be worth watching for any surprises

[cycloneye]

Great news about more improvements to some models like HAFS.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1953791273418039745

[BobHarlem]

The euro and GFS have another system behind the new wave off Africa. The 0z GFS develops it into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean and goes over both Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, but the Euro takes it just north of the islands. Beyond that it looks like it gets into the Gulf.

0z euro:


0z gfs:

[cycloneye]

06z GFS did not had anything from that Caribbean one.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro has this at the end of the Run (from the system behind 97L)

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops another wave behind 97L and moves just north of the Greater Antilles but is long range and you know the drill.

[WeatherBoy2000]

12z Euro develops another wave behind 97L and moves just north of the Greater Antilles but is long range and you know the drill.

https://i.imgur.com/iIYRi9g.gif

The eps is also showing more mdr development opportunities after 97l, not surprising given the favorable mjo and peak season climo.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro develops another wave behind 97L and moves just north of the Greater Antilles but is long range and you know the drill.

https://i.imgur.com/iIYRi9g.gif

0Z UKMET for what may be first AEW behind 97L:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 16.0N 49.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 17.0N 51.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 18.4N 53.9W 1011 24

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro shows this after Erin: A bit too close to the 20th Anniversary of Katrina for me.

[cycloneye]

Is long range from 12z Euro operational for wave behind Erin.

[zzzh]

That track is similar to Rita

[LAF92]

Is long range from 12z Euro operational for wave behind Erin.

https://i.imgur.com/22fD6o1.gif

The euro has been pretty adamant on developing a wave into the Caribbean. It seems to be the only one so far though

[Stratton23]

18z Euro has some sort of weak low, decent spin at 500, 700 and 850 mb levels moving into brownsville at hour 96, whats that from?

[jaguars_22]

Stratton I been seeing that the past few runs now and the gfs has had a weak low moving into Corpus Saturday! Hope we get some clouds from it!!!

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs has this also

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops wave behind Erin and recurves well east in the central atlantic.

[TomballEd]

There be a 98L/Fernand after Erin, which will also almost immediately recurve. Might be another after that. Maybe.

After that, anything would probably be 'home brew'. I see the random systems closer to the US but ensembles usually manage to get a random storm forecast Famous last words but I think the tropics will be quiet the next two weeks

Hoping we do get major hurricane satellite imagery from Erin and any possible MDR storm that may follow in its foot steps.