2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

2. Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

1. Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
southwestern Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Still below normal ACE.

[Astromanía]

I mean it's very obvious why, but at least EPAC is doing some decent action

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Finnally, the basin looks to wake up.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS had 4 systems.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025


South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like this basin will be very active in the next couple of weeks.

[Kingarabian]

Potential for a basin crosser as well.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This has since been fixed, but I thought I share this little glitch I caught on the TWO this morning

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to see how the upcomming basin outbreak affects the NATL. I guess it depends on how active it is to impart the shear from the outflows to the Caribbean.