When will the first hurricane of NATL hurricane season be classified?

[cycloneye]

There are the monthly polls but there are other topics that can be made for the members to vote. Here is the question about when will the first hurricane be classified. Poll will close for voting on July 25 at 10:10 AM EDT.

[TampaWxLurker]

The average date of the first Atlantic hurricane per climatology is August 11th. I see no reason to bet against that at the moment.

And while we're running a bit ahead of climatology for named storms (says we should get 3 named systems by Aug 3rd), I still don't think Andrea should've been named. But that's another story.

[cycloneye]

Voted 11-20 as my birthday is on the 11th which is the average date for the first hurricane.

[StormWeather]

Voted August 21-31. I generally think that the Atlantic will become truly favorable for action in late-August.

[Steve H.]

I actually think that the wave southwest of the Cabo verde islands has a chance this weekend. Looks fairly good right now but haven’t checked the conditions in the central Atlantic next couple of days. Just a gut feeling right now.

[cycloneye]

:wink: I actually think that the wave southwest of the Cabo verde islands has a chance this weekend. Looks fairly good right now but haven’t checked the conditions in the central Atlantic next couple of days. Just a gut feeling right now.

To be the first hurricane? Don't know if you posted at the right thread but this one is for when the first hurricane will be classified.

[underthwx]

I chose August 11th-20th. Seems like most reasonable point in time for the season.

[Teban54]

12% of votes are for "no hurricanes will form" right now

[AnnularCane]

12% of votes are for "no hurricanes will form" right now

Even 2013 had hurricanes.

August 21-31 seems like a reasonably safe bet.

[cycloneye]

Less than 24 hours for this poll to close for voting so those who have not voted yet, do so before it closes on friday at 10:14 AM EDT.

[wwizard]

12% of votes are for "no hurricanes will form" right now

Only 2 seasons on record have no hurricanes forming.
1907 with 5 tropical storms and 1914 with just 1 TS strength storm.

So we’re waaaaay overdue for a no hurricane season?

[AnnularCane]

12% of votes are for "no hurricanes will form" right now

Only 2 seasons on record have no hurricanes forming.
1907 with 5 tropical storms and 1914 with just 1 TS strength storm.

So we’re waaaaay overdue for a no hurricane season?

And those were pre-satellite years so can't really even say for sure.

[TomballEd]

Last third of August was my bet. Based on nothing imminent and Euro weeklies finally seeing life after mid-August.


Edit to Add: No hurricanes at all is not a reasonable answer. El Nino years like 1982 and 1997 had hurricanes. This is a cool neutral ENSO year. Edit to add more Who can forget 1992?

[chaser1]

12% of votes are for "no hurricanes will form" right now

Even 2013 had hurricanes.

August 21-31 seems like a reasonably safe bet.

Naw, I may be a little off but I'm not crazy
I went with the final 1/3 of August. No hurricanes allowed before I get off my short Bahamas cruise

[OuterBanker]

Aug 11 to 20 vote.

Somewhere west of 70 off SEUS. North of PR Fl to NC threat maybe. OTS most likely though.

[cycloneye]

Poll has closed for voting.

[ncforecaster89]

Actually, the average date of the first hurricane formation is 7/28 for the past thirty year period (1995-2024).

It’s 8/22 for the first major hurricane.

Out of the past 75 years (1950-2024), there have been 24 seasons that didn’t produce a hurricane by 8/15. Of those 24, only 3 (12.5%) managed to achieve above average TC activity. They were 1964, 1998, and 1999.

In short, the probabilities for an above average season (>16/8/4/134) decrease significantly if the NATL basin doesn’t spawn a hurricane by 8/15. Right now, it’s looking to be a 50/50 proposition.

[cycloneye]

17 votes for the winner.