SIO: Residual Depression

[Subtrop]

90S INVEST 250712 1800 4.9S 87.0E SHEM 15 0

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN AREA OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
ONLY HINDRANCE BEING MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IMPACTING 90S FROM THE EAST. CURRENT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

[sasha_B]

Now 01S per ATCF:

01S ONE 250716 1800 9.8S 89.8E SHEM 35 1003

And forecast to become a Moderate Tropical Storm by Météo-France La Reunion:

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE, Centre positionné le 17/07 à 22h locales, par 10.1 Sud / 86.0 Est.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBED ZONE 01-20252026

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.

Position on July 16 at 10 p.m. local time Reunion: 9.7 South / 89.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3845 km in the EAST-NORTH-EAST sector

Distance from Mayotte: 4880 km to the EAST sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTHWEST, at 11 km/h.

Key messages:

- The CMRS cyclone of La Réunion begins monitoring the Disturbed Zone 01-20252026 this Wednesday evening, July 16, the first tropical depression system of the 2025/2026 season in the Southwest of the Indian Ocean.

- This system, which began to develop at the beginning of the week in the Indonesian area of responsibility, crossed the 90°E meridian this Wednesday evening, thus entering the area of responsibility of the CMRS of La Réunion.

- Disturbance Zone 01-20252026 has shown signs of intensification since yesterday and could reach the stage of a moderate tropical storm by Thursday morning or in the coming days, while following a west to southwest oriented trajectory.

- This system is evolving in the far east of the basin and does not threaten any inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

If it's named, it will be TS Awo.

[ElectricStorm]

Now 01S per ATCF:

01S ONE 250716 1800 9.8S 89.8E SHEM 35 1003

What site do you use to get this? I can only see Atlantic and EPAC on NOAA ATCF and the navy site I used previously stopped working at the end of last year lol

[cycloneye]

Now 01S per ATCF:

01S ONE 250716 1800 9.8S 89.8E SHEM 35 1003

What site do you use to get this? I can only see Atlantic and EPAC on NOAA ATCF and the navy site I used previously stopped working at the end of last year lol

LInk to best tracks for all basins.

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/geoips/ ... ector_file

[ElectricStorm]

Now 01S per ATCF:

01S ONE 250716 1800 9.8S 89.8E SHEM 35 1003

What site do you use to get this? I can only see Atlantic and EPAC on NOAA ATCF and the navy site I used previously stopped working at the end of last year lol

LInk to best tracks for all basins.

https://science.nrlmry.navy.mil/geoips/ ... ector_file

Ah thanks, I guess the old links just don't work anymore

[cycloneye]

System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-20252026


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.

Position on July 17 at 10 a.m. local time: 10.1 South / 88.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3730 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4770 km to sector: EAST

Travel: WEST-SOUTHWEST, at 11 km/h.

Key messages:

- The RSMC cyclone monitoring center in Réunion has begun tracking the first tropical depression of the 2025/2026 season over the southwest Indian Ocean. This morning, it is developing into a tropical depression more than 3,000 km east of the Mascarene Islands.

- This system could benefit from a short window of intensification allowing it to reach tropical storm status by tomorrow, Friday, while following a west to southwest trajectory.

- A weakening of the system is then expected this weekend, before a definitive dissipation at the beginning of next week.

- This system is evolving over the east of the basin and does not threaten any inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-20252026


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1001 hPa.

Position on July 18 at 4 a.m. local time: 11.0 South / 86.4 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3450 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4490 km to sector: EST

Travel: WEST-SOUTHWEST, at 19 km/h.

Key messages:

- The first tropical depression system of the 2025/2026 season in the Southwest Indian Ocean is developing into a tropical depression more than 3,000 km east of the Mascarenes.

- This system could benefit from a short window of intensification allowing it to reach tropical storm status by Friday, while following a west-southwestward trajectory.

- A weakening of the system is then expected this weekend, before a definitive dissipation at the beginning of next week.

- This system is evolving over the east of the basin and does not threaten any inhabited land.

[cycloneye]

Zayonara for it.

System Information: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-20252026


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 55 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 1004 hPa.

Position on July 18 at 4 p.m. local time: 12.4 South / 83.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 3120 km in the sector: EAST-NORTH-EAST

Distance from Mayotte: 4180 km to sector: EAST

Travel: WEST-SOUTHWEST, at 28 km/h.

Key messages:

- The first tropical depression system of the 2025/2026 season over the Southwest Indian Ocean has begun to weaken far to the east of the Mascarenes.

- This system will continue to evolve over the eastern part of the basin, moving west-southwest. It will continue to weaken this weekend before disappearing. It does not threaten any inhabited land.

- This is the last bulletin issued by the CMRS of Reunion, unless there is a possible re-intensification.