Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[Ian2401]

KMLB radar being down is such a killer

[GCANE]

GFS is forecasting a big surface High over mid GOM when this hits FL.
Basically shredding it over land and displacing the mid-level vort into the glades.
It shows it emerging into the Keys and finally dissipating.

[Nimbus]

Is that a low level spin on the north end?
https://i.imgur.com/TfFch2x.gif

You mean the one centered over the latest hot tower?
Quite a lot of shear and this may track WSW and cross Florida near Lake O by the time recon is ready to fly.

[Stratton23]

Wouldnt be surprised to see an attempt at a center reformation further south under the convection, either way this looks like another big whiff from the global models, dont think they will be very useful in this situation, man they need to make this an invest already so we can get the hurricane models running

[GCANE]

This should cross FL tomorrow during daylight when the convective cap is lifted.
I think ICON is correct.

[BobHarlem]

One thing going for the GFS, the IR sim from yesterday looking at now looks pretty close. If the convection explodes over Florida this evening that'll match too, then fade out by the morning.

[Pas_Bon]

Wouldnt be surprised to see an attempt at a center reformation further south under the convection, either way this looks like another big whiff from the global models, dont think they will be very useful in this situation, man they need to make this an invest already so we can get the hurricane models running

Google AI model has sniffed it out for a while now.

[ROCK]

This should cross FL tomorrow during daylight when the convective cap is lifted.
I think ICON is correct.

Been watching models for days. Got a feeling ICON sniffed this out pretty well. Not sure a 986M into NO is plausible but any reform out in the GOA helps makes that case.

[Ian2401]

Circulation still looks elongated SW-NE to me. Although as long as it continues to produce deep convection surface vorticity should continue to increase and concentrate. No doubt that it looks better than it did yesterday. My guess would be an increase to an orange at 2pm from NHC with an invest tag.

[Stratton23]

Im keeping an eye on the convection just north of the grand bahamas, thats where at least to me the “ deepest” convection looks to be found, watching that area for potential a down shear center relocation much further to the south, where the NHC has the X located, i dont think that will last given the deepest convection is pretty south of where that “X ” is

[BobHarlem]

Melbourne radar is back up.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

[psyclone]

We need an invest tag on this. Ultimately it seems like a TS into SE LA seems like a legit chance. Hopefully heat busting party squalls from LA to FL.

[Stratton23]

Formation odds should be closer to 50% in my opinion

[tropicwatch]

Sebastian weather station SIPF1 currently reporting 1014.3mb.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro shunts the vorticity to the northwest and over land, doesn't develop. Doesn't seem to be matching what the satellite shows, but I'd imagine something to watch for. (Especially when the late afternoon/evening thunderstorm stuff starts up over Florida)

[tropicwatch]

Noticed they extended the chance of development back into the Atlantic a little bit.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up

[wxman57]

Formation odds should be closer to 50% in my opinion

I think it's nearly a certainty that the NHC will call any weak low in the Gulf at least a TD by Wednesday afternoon. Possibly a 35-40 kt TS by Thursday morning.