Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[LarryWx]

NHC being too conservative with development chances, id probably go with a 40% chance to develop because its looking slot healthier today on IR compared to what some of the global runs show

I don’t think the TWO’s 20% chance for TCG is conservative when considering that the ICON is the only global consistently showing a TC and with ensembles showing light support at most. IMHO. 12Z CMC has a weak low near the Gulf coast.

Is the ICON doing this because it’s further south? If so, is it likely correct or incorrect in doing so?

[Steve]

NHC being too conservative with development chances, id probably go with a 40% chance to develop because its looking slot healthier today on IR compared to what some of the global runs show

I don’t think the TWO’s 20% chance for TCG is conservative when considering that the ICON is the only global consistently showing a TC and with ensembles showing light support at most. IMHO. 12Z CMC has a weak low near the Gulf coast.

Is the ICON doing this because it’s further south? If so, is it likely correct or incorrect in doing so?

Yeah I think so. It dips sw instead of just skirting the coast which is why it gets farther west. Maybe it corrects to show a more east to west track of the low but that’s tbd.

[BobHarlem]

HRRR's take on it, develops a low and moves it toward melbourne.



Small system, similar to Chantal which the globals also had a hard time with. HRRR is not good for Tropical Cyclones at all, fwiw, but this isn't one (yet).

[tropicwatch]

HRRR's take on it, develops a low and moves it toward melbourne.

https://i.imgur.com/fpsJHww.gif

Small system, similar to Chantal which the globals also had a hard time with.

Starting to cross on Tuesday. I think that is a little slower than expected.

[Ivanhater]

Definitely an uptick with development today. Models weren't to excited with Chantal until late and if this can stay offshore, conditions look ripe.

Either way, going to be a wet week along the northern Gulf coast

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1944499648128745905

[Stratton23]

I really hope ( even its just a weak low) that this doesn’t track toward texas, grounds are very saturated- central to se texas

[BobHarlem]

ASCAT from a little bit ago:


Also first broadcast met I've seen to pop this up:

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1944506981231771778

[WeatherBoy2000]

The Icon is back down to a strong TS.

[BobHarlem]

The Icon is back down to a strong TS.

That may be too far north considering the models pushing it into Florida in south Brevard in ECFL. It wound wind up further south into the Gulf then.

[GCANE]

Steering is basically North to South. I think this will go deeper into the GOM than what models are currently forecasting.

[Stratton23]

I do not like seeing the subtropical ridging really building into the eastern gulf , thats gonna push this further west into the gulf

[GCANE]

A small equator-ward outflow channel is setup from an UL Low just south of the MS Delta

[GCANE]

8000 CAPE all day at the top of the Loop Current in the eastern GOM.
Not good.

[BobHarlem]

The 18z gfs looks similar to 12z, no development. Melbourne and Jacksonville radars are both down right now. Hopefully mlb comes back up soon.

Code: Select all

NOUS62 KMLB 132135
FTMMLB

MESSAGE DATE: SUN JUL 13 2025 5:35 PM EDT

THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D (KMLB) REMAINS DOWN DUE TO AN UNANTICIPATED
DISRUPTION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO ESTIMATION FOR WHEN IT WILL
RETURN TO SERVICE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

$$

TOLLEFSEN


18z UK showing it again after not earlier

[hurricane2025]

Doesn’t look like a Texas system. Louisiana to me

[Wampadawg]

Doesn’t look like a Texas system. Louisiana to me

Still early

[Cpv17]

Doesn’t look like a Texas system. Louisiana to me

Agreed. It would have to come off the FL coast much further S than what the UKIE just showed IMO.

[Stratton23]

still early in the game, very strong ridge over the SE US, meaning this is likely going to get pushed towards the western gulf , but texas is certainly in play as well, especially if that subtropical ridge keeps nosing into the gulf, i also do not see any evidence in the models of a big shortwave/ trough coming down to pick this up in the models, so this may be a case of generally weak steering currents as it gets close to shore somewhere

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the southeastern United States, northwestern
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. This system is forecast to
move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the
northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday. Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system during the middle to
latter part of this week while it moves westward over the
northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding
over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through
the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Hagen