Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[Steve]

GFS is much more broad after it emerges off of Florida. ICON has a consolidating core as soon as it hits water.

Yep. Whether they are right or wrong, globals often struggle with smaller features that develop closer to the coast vs the mesoscales and the ICON which I think is run at 13km. FV3 seems to show a shadow of the low pressure but it’s kind of out of range as it dips SW into the Gulf.

[TomballEd]

Euro has very good resolution, 9 km (0.1° x 0.1° lat/long grid). Better than the 12 km NAM. The 3 km models, except for the specialized hurricane models, are not designed for TC forecasting. The ICON showed some skill last year but as long as it is ICON vs. the world (with some tepid ensemble support (including a couple of hurricanes- see JB tweet)) I'd lean >20% of development (TDs or higher) but under 20% TS strength or higher.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1944376335691841785

[BobHarlem]

:Of the operationals, the CMC seems to be the middle take. The canadian showing the area off Jax in the near terrm better than the GFS for sure, but isn't anywhere as extreme as the Icon later, and also takes it into LA. It's more defined than the GFS though. But even then, neither are lining up to the current vort chart, which seems more in line with what the Icon had, but even then the icon was a bit too far north. Still a fluid situation, recon going out tomorrow is a good call.

It does tell me the system is kinda small so some of the models may not have a full grasp of it yet.



Icon


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1944440666979012682

[Steve]

Euro has very good resolution, 9 km (0.1° x 0.1° lat/long grid). Better than the 12 km NAM. The 3 km models, except for the specialized hurricane models, are not designed for TC forecasting. The ICON showed some skill last year but as long as it is ICON vs. the world (with some tepid ensemble support (including a couple of hurricanes- see JB tweet)) I'd lean >20% of development (TDs or higher) but under 20% TS strength or higher.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1944376335691841785

Right. But they occasionally pick up on smaller systems better than the globals do including the European.

[WeatherBoy2000]

What it looks like when it enters the gulf on Tuesday night is going to be important when it comes to its chances of developing. If organized, its ceiling is quite high (icon), but if not, then chances of development will be quite low (gfs):

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1944440666979012682



It currently looks pretty good on IR, much better than what the gfs's predictive IR currently shows at this time.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is much more broad after it emerges off of Florida. ICON has a consolidating core as soon as it hits water.

Yep. Whether they are right or wrong, globals often struggle with smaller features that develop closer to the coast vs the mesoscales and the ICON which I think is run at 13km. FV3 seems to show a shadow of the low pressure but it’s kind of out of range as it dips SW into the Gulf.

CMC has a more compact low and deeper vort similar to the ICON but hugs the coast leading to limited development. So the ICON might no be too far fetched here in terms of initial intensity

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and
into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system during the
middle to late part of this week while it moves westward over the
northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding
over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through
the mid to late portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[Stratton23]

NHC being too conservative with development chances, id probably go with a 40% chance to develop because its looking slot healthier today on IR compared to what some of the global runs show

[cycloneye]

Recon for tuesday afternoon.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OFF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 26.5N 82.5W FOR 15/1800Z.

[hohnywx]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1944456099501047815

[psyclone]

Wet times depicted by WPC from LA to FL with this disturbance with 7 day max over the FL peninsula weighted south...although the latest output has backed off some across the board...it does look like the frogs, gators and cane toads are gonna cash in

[GCANE]

925mb vort consolidating nicely.
RAP is showing a weak surface low.
Moderate shear is helping to fire the convection.

[GCANE]

Looking good.
Main area of convection starting to show decent vorticity.
Tons of low-level convergence.
Small hot tower south of the main convection.

[GCANE]

Unbelievable for this time of year.
Currently, CAPE in the GOM at 8500.

[Steve]

Unbelievable for this time of year.
Currently, CAPE in the GOM at 8500.

Might be the highest value you ever posted (at least that I read).

[GCANE]

Convection along the FL coast north of 29.5N blowing inland.
South of 29.5N blowing out to sea.

[BobHarlem]

Roughly due east of St. Augustine/Flagler (Same place GCAPE mentioned)

[ronjon]

I think there is enough convection and model support to declare the mass off the Florida east coast an INVEST. I'd like to see some hurricane models run on it.

[tropicwatch]

Upper levels looking good and vorticity appears to be stacked from the 925mb to 700mb levels.

Upper level winds
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Vorticity
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

[BobHarlem]

6z Euro ensemble cluster is pretty tight here. 12z graphic not out yet on tidbits, but the weathernerds and pivotal ones are light on paths.


But overall not a ton of members on it.

Operational 12z euro is lighter, but the euro AI is more bullish in Louisiana.


The Euro is weaker for right now than the actual observations, however.