Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[GCANE]

Current convection firing in 5500 CAPE.
Impressive.

[BobHarlem]

I wonder if the icon is onto something with the early low. Don't see much rotation though.




Going to go out on a limb and say we'll get an invest later today.

[jaguars_22]

There’s no way this thing can keep coming west to Texas and just obliterate our flooding monsoon even more is there? It’s not likely to continue on a west track the entire way across the gulf… without being picked up by a trough

[Steve]

This will be a good test of the Icon with it easily the most bullish of the globals on this overall.

Last couple years it’s been pretty solid in the Gulf with several different systems as you know. It’s not been perfect, but it’s often been out front of other globals.

06z has it at 993mb just off Grand Isle/Port Fourchon. It’s depicted as concentric. 993 in this case could be an upper-end TS if it’s right.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1944376335691841785



Although a solution like this is very unlikely, the bottom line is that the conditions are there for some form of development to potentially take place.

[ronjon]

There’s no way this thing can keep coming west to Texas and just obliterate our flooding monsoon even more is there? It’s not likely to continue on a west track the entire way across the gulf… without being picked up by a trough

Think it's way too soon to know the future track. First it has to develop and second there's just too much time (5-7 days) to know where it will go. Some models are hinting (GFS) that it could swing NW into La or Miss.

[Steve]

^^ yeah WB2000. It would have to be relatively close to the coast and homespun since the MJO isn’t in a phase you expect anything tropical in the WATL. Some of the more reliable MJO models are starting to indicate a rotation toward Phase 8 around the 27th. If they are right we could see something tropical toward the end of the month and/or first week to ten days of august. If it rotates out of that it would probably be toward the middle of September before there are more tropical origin threats though there can be in close development as we might see with this area of interest.

[Steve]

There’s no way this thing can keep coming west to Texas and just obliterate our flooding monsoon even more is there? It’s not likely to continue on a west track the entire way across the gulf… without being picked up by a trough

It’s possible. Pieces of troughs that consolidate and split off move west across the gulf pretty often. This is only mid-July so don’t expect strong steering currents imho.

[GCANE]

Latest JAX Forecast Discussion

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1



(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An area of low pressure that is expected to be centered off the
SE GA and NE FL coasts Monday morning, will track southwest across
forecast area Monday, then into the northeastern Gulf Monday night.
The low will continue to track further west into the Gulf Tuesday
into Tuesday night, as high pressure builds to the east northeast.

Due to the track of the low, and convergence along its track the
greatest chances for showers and storms this period will be over
NE FL. A few strong storms with periods of heavy rainfall will be
possible.

[GCANE]

Recon may take a look Tuesday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 13 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-043

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OFF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 26.5N 82.5W FOR 15/1800Z.

[Tailgater33]

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OFF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 26.5N 82.5W FOR 15/1800Z.
I hope it doesn’t get that far south, I don’t care for those systems moving SW over FLA. into the Gulf.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON continues with development

[BobHarlem]

12z ICON continues with development

[jaguars_22]

Down to 968 on the icon!!

[MGC]

Pity JAX radar is down. Looks like a broad area of LP if forming, looks more aloft currently though. I think the chances of a TC will increase in the coming days. North Gulf is quite warm so if anything does spin up it will have plenty of fuel to work with......MGC

[Steve]

Peaks at 968mb (generally Cat 2 range) as it heads in Chambers/Jefferson Counties or so just after midnight early Saturday morning.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

By Monday am it’s just a little to the ene of austin. So a slow mover. Some people in SETX/SWLA are gonna flood if this is right.

[PTrackerLA]

I'll be watching this closely as the ICON could very well be on to something. It has been such a dramatic departure this summer vs 23 & 24 with very consistent rains and tempered heat. Seems the gulf is ripe for homegrown activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa....

Latest ICON run kind of reminds me of a notorious hurricane from 1983...

Not to mention that track has the storm going over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic currently, with 30-31 C waters

[WeatherBoy2000]

The icon is definitely extreme, however, other models like the gfs maybe downplaying. Looking at the predictive IR presentation from the 06z gfs run, it is far too underdeveloped convectively at this time.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is much more broad after it emerges off of Florida. ICON has a consolidating core as soon as it hits water.