Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions
could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of
this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally
westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and
north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and
southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Papin/Mahoney

[Steve]

NAM 12z shows about a 1012 low 150 miles or so west of Sanibel and Naples valid 1am Wednesday central. Shows up 500, 700, and mslp.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1218&fh=84

[Steve]

Nam 12k 18z is similar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1218&fh=84

Icon 18z goes to 120 hours/5 days. Still showing low pressure at 500, 700 and 850

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=120

[TheFort2018]

I'd guess at the very least it'll be a big rainmaker for us on the Treasure Coast.

[Stratton23]

If “dexter” ends up becoming out of this, I will say looking at the upper air pattern on models and ensembles, Id lean toward a pretty slow moving system that kind of meanders a bit over the gulf, big ridge building over colorado and expanding eastward kind of just traps this thing, jet stream is well north in the northern US so i dont see any significant weakness to develop that would just yank this thing north

[cycloneye]

Modified the title to scratch SE U.S Coast and add NE Gulf.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern
U.S. coast during the next couple of days and then move westward
across Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system
during the middle to late part of next week while it moves westward
over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through mid to late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Berg

[TallyTracker]

A possible analog for this system if it forms is Edourd in 2008. It also formed from a front and moved west across the northern Gulf before landfalling in Texas as a 65 mph TS.

[cycloneye]

18z EURO.

[Stratton23]

definitely a noticeable increase in surface vorticity on the 18z Euro, overnight runs will be very interesting

[ronjon]

18z ICON stronger at 120 hrs with 1008 mb closed low in north central GOM.

[BobHarlem]

0z icon is even stronger.

[Stratton23]

weak hurricane on the 00z ICON going into galveston at day 5

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, that was quite the ICON run

[Stratton23]

GFS/ CMC still nada, but the Suite of NAM modes all have a closed low at day 3, im wondering if this setup in particular is going to give the global models trouble, they already whiffed on seeing the development of tropical storm barry

[Brent]

There's an ensemble map floating around Facebook showing it going towards Louisiana or even Texas it cuts pretty far west and that is like day 6 or 7. Lots of time if that pans out

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern
U.S. coast during the next day or two and then move westward across
Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system
during the middle to late part of this week while it moves westward
over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the mid to late portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Papin

[GCANE]

ICON starts it as a surface low, late tonight, in the Atlantic off the GA coast and then moves across FL into the GOM.
Looks good.
An ULH sitting just NW of Savannah.
Enough of a shear gradient to kick off strong convection.
In fact, convection currently firing with overshooting tops.
Moderate CAPE and TPW to entrain into this.
GFS is forecasting a vort from surface to 500mb tomorrow.
We'll see how it holds up when it crosses FL.

[LarryWx]

This will be a good test of the Icon with it easily the most bullish of the globals on this overall.

[Brent]

they appear to be weak at least

[GCANE]

GFS at 00Z 7/17/25 showing a closed low at 500mb and throughs at 700 and 850mb.
Just south of the MS Delta.
Watching how future runs develop this or not.