Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

when CSU will release their next forecast? I need to update my bet in the 2025 poll....

Well, it will be after the poll closes, so hurry up to finalize. Only go to the first post and see the future dates of releases from CSU.

[ouragans]

Meteo France forecast has been published today

16 TS
8 H
4 MH

Full detail (in French): https://meteofrance.mq/fr/actualites/bu ... ualisation

[ouragans]

SMN (Mexico's weather service) issued their forecast on May 3rd, but I completely missed it

13-17 TS
6-8 H
3-4 MH



https://www.gob.mx/smn/articulos/pronos ... 5?idiom=es

[cycloneye]

WeatherTiger new forecast is up and they have 16-20 named storms.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/wea ... ricane-99f

[ncforecaster89]

Here’s a listing of 33 separate forecast groups that have provided a seasonal projection:

 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1929273942184742985

[cycloneye]

CSU up on Wednesday at 11 AM EDT.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1932553170980331917

[Blown Away]

My guess CSU lowers the total named storms and total canes by one primarily because the Atlantic doesn’t appear it will produce an early season named storm.

[chaser1]

My guess CSU lowers the total named storms and total canes by one primarily because the Atlantic doesn’t appear it will produce an early season named storm.

My thinking as well.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1932815087691018471

[WeatherBoy2000]

No change from the April forecast:

 https://x.com/RyanNBC6/status/1932804528597864780

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

The analogs are 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1932818606485614684

[crownweather]

The analogs are 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1932818606485614684

Eyeballing those analog years & using just my memory, mostly all of those analog years are East Coast heavy years. 1996 with Bertha and Fran; 1999 with Floyd; 2011 with Irene; 2021 with Henri. That said, there were some notable Gulf storms during some of those analog years including Bret in 1999, Gustav & Ike in 2008 & Ida in 2021.

[cycloneye]

TSR goes down in the numbers fronm 16/8/4 to 15/7/3. Read the whole update at the link to PDF.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2025.pdf

[cycloneye]

CSU July 9 update:

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942961949924265997




https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-07.pdf

We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

Analog years for 2025 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.
Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC
2001 15 68.75 9 25.50 4 4.25 110.1 135.3
2008 16 88.25 8 30.50 5 7.50 145.7 162.3
2011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126.3 144.9
2021 21 79.75 7 27.75 4 12.75 145.6 173.7
Average 17.8 81.6 7.8 27.4 4.3 7.3 131.9 154.0
2025 Forecast 16 80 8 30 3 8 140 145

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942963453637034229



 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942965720096387575



This post at X is from our member SFLCANE

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1942970088010748353

[Ulf]

Kinda surprised that CSU reduced their named storms forecast considering we already have 3 and the real possibility we might have La Niña condition by the fall.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942963453637034229



 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942965720096387575



This post at X is from our member SFLCANE

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1942970088010748353

I wouldn't say 2001 was an active season for the Conus, there were only three landfalls, none above tropical storm intensity. Even 2011 had hurricane Irene.

[LarryWx]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942963453637034229



 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1942965720096387575



This post at X is from our member SFLCANE

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1942970088010748353

I wouldn't say 2001 was an active season for the Conus, there were only three landfalls, none above tropical storm intensity. Even 2011 had hurricane Irene.

I agree that 2001 clearly wasn’t an active season for the US. Relative to 1995+ climo for the CONUS I’m calling 2 of the 4 CSU analog years active (2008 and 2021) and the other 2 (2001 and 2011) not active.

I still think we’re likely headed to slightly above the active 1991-2020 activity overall and probably also for CONUS with already one direct TS hit though hits on the CONUS is admittedly more of a crapshoot than overall activity.

[al78]

Kinda surprised that CSU reduced their named storms forecast considering we already have 3 and the real possibility we might have La Niña condition by the fall.

I'm not seeing much evidence for that currently:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Apart from a couple of outliers that are on Neptune, it looks to be neutral through the rest of this year to high probability, assuming the model ensemble represents uncertainty reasonably.