Texas Summer 2025

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I hope from this point forward there’s a more redundant Flash Flood Warning system for rivers that are known for flash flooding (Guadalupe, Llano, San Saba, Perdnales). There should be sirens near the river that go off once the river rises above a certain rate. New Braunfels has these. So does San Marcos. Wimberly added local cellphone towers to improve receiving text message alerts during events.

Kerr County applied for a grant to get a new warning system but was not awarded.

From previous drives I’ve taken out that way, cellphone signal can get spotty when you get close to Hunt. Can’t rely on text message alerts. I’m surprised these camps didn’t have a scout that was dedicated to watching river gauges and radar. Especially when a Flash Flood Watch was raised about a day in advance IIRC.

[Brent]

I hope from this point forward there’s a more redundant Flash Flood Warning system for rivers that are known for flash flooding (Guadalupe, Llano, San Saba, Perdnales). There should be sirens near the river that go off once the river rises above a certain rate. New Braunfels has these. So does San Marcos. Wimberly added local cellphone towers to improve receiving text message alerts during events.

Kerr County applied for a grant to get a new warning system but was not awarded.

From previous drives I’ve taken out that way, cellphone signal can get spotty when you get close to Hunt. Can’t rely on text message alerts. I’m surprised these camps didn’t have a scout that was dedicated to watching river gauges and radar. Especially when a Flash Flood Watch was raised about a day in advance IIRC.

Yeah that's been bothering me from the beginning especially when these camps are supposedly a huge deal then if that's the case why wasn't someone being a responsible adult basically. I know not all flash flood warnings are the same obviously and I'm sure that didn't help

Oh and I would start with NOAA weather radios too every place with a lot of people like this needs one

[utpmg]

Just a quick search, this is the earliest Warning i've seen, after a day or so of flash flood watches: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=FFWEWX&e=202507040441

[rwfromkansas]

I have been at Kansas for the 4th but saw the awful flooding. Just horrendous.

I will say, perhaps cabins in these areas should have escape hatches with ladders to get to the roof. That would have saved some lives where the wave wasn’t at maximum height.

And mandatory weather radios in all offices AND CABINS to wake kids and counselors.

Otherwise, the NWS needs to rework warnings. Too many “severe” storms really…aren’t due to low criteria.

And too many flood warnings are issued for possible flooding without any reports of life-threatening water levels. Just because it rains a few inches on radar doesn’t mean it’s going to be worth a flood warning.

Issue for something significant.

Maybe all others get the current weaker “flood advisory” or something like that “street flooding alert.”

RE: the rain today….I hope some of it makes it to DFW beyond the usual NE burbs that got some already today.

I’ve only seen .32 since July 1.

[Brent]

Gonna go over 100 dead easily at this point. We've passed a bunch
of landfalling hurricanes on death toll already. Just awful

[Cpv17]

Gonna go over 100 dead easily at this point. We've passed a bunch
of landfalling hurricanes on death toll already. Just awful

What bothers me is the past history of the rivers out there flooding seemed to be ignored. It’s like they completely forgot how dangerous it is. The context clues were all there for this to happen. Discussions were sent out by the NWS warning of some big isolated totals in the area well before it started. Mesos were hinting at the potential all day on Thursday. Yeah, maybe the Hunt/Ingram area wasn’t exactly supposed to be in the bullseye, but that doesn’t matter. Any time a watch is even remotely close to you, you should act accordingly and treat it like you’re still included in the watch. Especially when you’re down by a river that’s known for rapid flash flooding with hundreds of kids around. This could’ve easily been avoided. The area could’ve been cleared out well before the rain even began. Just flat out sickening on so many levels.

[rwfromkansas]

When is this low going to kick northeast?

Looks like it’s going back to Kerrville unfortunately. They need a break!

[UTSARoadrunner4]

When is this low going to kick northeast?

Looks like it’s going back to Kerrville unfortunately. They need a break!

Per NWS EWX:

“ An upper level trough that has been over the central Gulf of America will move toward the Texas coast on Tuesday. This will likely take the MCV away from our area. As a result, it should not impact our area after today. This scenario is seen in most all of the models/ensembles. As the trough approaches, chances of showers and thunderstorms develop from the Coastal Plains to the I-35 corridor
Tuesday afternoon. Moisture levels/PWs decrease some, however still cannot rule out a few heavy downpours.”

[mmmmsnouts]

Yeah that's been bothering me from the beginning especially when these camps are supposedly a huge deal then if that's the case why wasn't someone being a responsible adult basically.

This also seems like a particularly tragic outcome of people ignoring expert advice. They may not be perfect, but they know a lot more about these things than you do. Listen to what they tell you. I’m so tired of people ignoring experts and making very bad decisions… then blaming and demonizing everyone else for the consequences of their bad decisions.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

[xpost] https://x.com/chrissuchanwoai/status/19 ... 7t10NsZo2Q[/xpost]

Record breaking flood along the Guadalupe. All record floods in this area being in July is even crazier.

[utpmg]

Answering my own question, after the earlier Flash Flood Warnings looks like the first EMERGENCY status was at 5:34AM.
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=FFWEWX&e=202507041034

Currently more rain going on over the Upper Colorado, San Saba, Llano rivers.

[txtwister78]

I know what I say won't effect what's already been said and continues to be discussed throughout social media and elswhere regarding this tragic event, but I hope regardless of where folks choose to get their news and information from, they will keep these things in mind;

1. Some aspects of our weather continue to be wildly and sometimes tragically unpredictable. Having gone through a few of these warm core tropical influenced type systems in previous years (this region no stranger to that or flash flooding), models, as good as some may be, still have a ways to go toward predicting these type of events. Having said that, I became increasingly concerned about significant flooding once I started seeing the HRRR extended on the afternoon/evening runs of July 3rd putting out 18-20 plus inches of rain in certain locations across the area. I posted to that effect on here then, BUT models like the HRRR for example had that signal (further south) than where it ended up being obviously.

2. Despite the modeling and inconsistent data from them at times (location/total projections), the "signal" for the potential of catastrophic flooding was there and to their credit, the National Weather Service offices both in San Angelo and Austin/San Antonio regions were out in front on getting that messaging out to the public well in advance of the flooding with watches and social media communication (to include individual forcast discussions and WPC).There has also been no indication despite the outside "noise" that staffing had any role in this whatsoever but I'll leave expounding on that topic further outside of this forum.

3. As most on here already know, national weather service can't force nor does it have as part of its charge the authority to mandate evacuations in low lying flood prone areas. The information they provide is solely for public consumption with the hope obviously that the general public to include local and state officials will act upon it in an effort to save life and property. Regardless of the whatever metric one chooses to use, I firmly believe the NWS did that here.

4. I do believe there will and should be at the appropriate time an investigation to help answer some of the more relevant questions that I'm sure family members and those personally impacted will want answered at some point. These may include better or more site warning systems along the river banks, location of these camp sites to begin with (some with only one small county road to access that may have proved costly with evacuations once flooding was ongoing, local/site communication etc). Above all, I just pray for the families of those impacted and the toll not just on them but our heroic first responders who by all accounts have performed bravely under difficult conditions both physically and mentally.

Apologies for the long post but I felt it needed to be said and now back to discussing active weather from my end.

[Stratton23]

We really need a big heat ridge to set up over the state, central texas needs a very long break, and personally i could do a good month without rain right now , everything is water logged and muddy here

[Cpv17]

We really need a big heat ridge to set up over the state, central texas needs a very long break, and personally i could do a good month without rain right now , everything is water logged and muddy here

Not at my location. Could actually use an inch or two at my house.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 it seems like you always miss out on the big rains lol, i hust personally could use a decent stretch of dry weather, cant cut the lawn because everything is so soggy, and its really making the mosquitoes even worse

[Texas Snowman]

As noted above by UTSARoadrunner4.

Just crazy. And the top three crests are all in July. In a place where rattlesnake bites are your biggest worry most years. But certainly not all years.

Not living in that part of the state, I had never heard it called Flash Flood Alley before. But I certainly understand that nickname after the past several days.

Praying for so many suffering families today.

 https://x.com/chrissuchanwoai/status/1942274188451962983

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/averytomascowx/status/1942313418096271609

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 it seems like you always miss out on the big rains lol, i hust personally could use a decent stretch of dry weather, cant cut the lawn because everything is so soggy, and its really making the mosquitoes even worse

Yep, majority of the time I do.

[mmmmsnouts]

As noted above by UTSARoadrunner4.

Just crazy. And the top three crests are all in July. In a place where rattlesnake bites are your biggest worry most years. But certainly not all years.

Not living in that part of the state, I had never heard it called Flash Flood Alley before. But I certainly understand that nickname after the past several days.

Praying for so many suffering families today.

 https://x.com/chrissuchanwoai/status/1942274188451962983

Horrifying that it crested at almost quadruple the height that is considered flood stage. I’m guessing the gauge itself was damaged or swept away (because of the 2 days of missing data) and there’s a chance the crest could have been even higher than that.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/txstormchasers/status/1942337847811531199